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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 15 Analysis/Review

Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 15 Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Dec 20, 2022
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Monday, December 19, 2022 Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7/-115 Green Bay Packers Rating: 8* Mike's Monday Night Smart Play (WIN) This game isn't as intriguing as it would have been in the 60's when George Allen (before his Redskins' days) would have been matching wits with the legendary Vince Lombardi. However, what we do have is a QB mismatch between Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers & Los Angeles' not-ready-for-prime-time Baker Mayfield. The early adrenalin may last a bit for Mayfield. But after a tenacious Green Bay defense sets in, look out! The warm-weather & hard-to-believe defending Super Bowl champs (a 4-9 SU injury laden team without playmakers WR Cooper Kupp & DE Aaron Donald) will struggle on offense unless it totally controls the line of scrimmage. I'm not counting on that. Loading the box & daring Mayfield to pass is the strategy. Don't think Packers' CB Rasul Douglas isn't licking his chops (picked off Mayfield twice last season @ this venue in a 24-22 GB win in Game 15) & up/ready for the telegraph of a quick dink to his RB's or WR. Last week, Mayfield played a comfy cozy game indoors. That'll be a far cry from the elements he'll endure @ Lambeau. My bottom line says Rodgers has found an excellent connection with WR Christian Watson (7 TD receptions & 401 receiving yards thus far) & should be able to exploit the matchups IF RB's Aaron Jones & A.J. Dillon are effective enough to establish play-action for him. It's hard to ignore the Cheeseheads being 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in this series over the past 15 years. Let's also remember that Mayfield, when coming off a SU win, has gone a no-show 0-5 SU & 1-4 versus the number. Combine that with Rodgers being a perfect 6-0 SU & (5-0-1 ATS) @ home off a bye week has this pick solidified! Let's go chilly Lambeau Field in Wisconsin to play the GREEN BAY PACKERS on the ML as my 8 Star Monday Night Smart Play! Sunday, December 18, 2022 Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +9/-120 Chicago Bears Rating: 8* Mike's NFC Sandwich Game of the Week (WIN) Here's 2 teams that's had some excellent tangles in the past like the 88' Fog Bowl & the 18' Double-Doink off the post. Just as Dallas will have trouble putting Jacksonville away (Jax will be right in it with a "W" & Tennessee loss), so too will the Eagles in Chicago. With the 3-10 SU Bears, this might be their Super Bowl! You'll be getting an "A" game from QB Justin Fields (13/10 TD/INT ratio) who has already rushed for 905 yards & 8 TD's. Yes, Philadelphia has a decisive edge in talent. But past dealings with teams right before they play the Cowboys points directly @ a 0-5 pointspread record. On the flip side, the Monster of the Midway bring in a convincing 7-0 spreadwise mark when they come off of a SU & ATS loss. My bottom line points directly @ the Bears who lost 7 game by 9 points or less. I can't stress more that having 2 weeks to prepare is a HUGE advantage. The Eagles get their points but Chicago keeps up as well. The Bears have been respectable @ home versus San Francisco (19-10) as well as versus Miami (35-32). Let's roll to the Windy City to play on the CHICAGO BEARS (buying to + 14 1/2) as y 8 Star NFC Sandwich Game of the Week! Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -14.5/-110 Kansas City Chiefs Rating: 9* Mike's Blue-Chipper Game of the Week (WIN) There's not much to read into here. Kansas City needs a "W" & NOT a cover to keep pace with the Buffalo Bills for the 1st seed & 1st-round bye in the playoffs. 2nd-year man out of Stanford QB Davis Mills will have a ton of problems handling the Chiefs' pass rush led by Chris Jones (11 sacks) on a defense that's already recorded 42 sacks. My biggest question mark looks @ how a Houston team has anything left in their tank after playing their Super Bowl last week when they lost in the last seconds to intra-state rival Dallas 27-23. Remember that KC HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid doesn't take cream puffs lightly! Hey, we take them as we get them with no excuses made because of steep lines or higher risk. I was taught that no guts = no glory. We're confidently going to NRG Stadium in Texas to play the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS laying the BIG juice on the ML as my 9 Star Blue-Chipper Game of the Week! Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -215 New Orleans Saints Rating: 8* Mike's Rookie On The Road Dominator Play (WIN) It's time for Atlanta HC Arthur Smith to experiment a little bit & install his rookie QB out of Cincinnati Desmond Ridder. The only problem with that is playing a very fresh off their bye New Orleans squad in their back yard in a heated NFC South battle. When you have both teams off the bye, the flaws are more apparent on the side with the in-experience. Spreadwise, these same Dirty Birds have gone a crappy 1-6 ATS their past 7 contests after starting the season cashing 6 straight tickets. In fact, when Atlanta was clicking back in Week 1, the Saints still got the best of them 28-27 in Georgia. The Holy Rollers have had that knack to cover in their own NFC South division going 30-16 versus the number since the beginning of the 2015 season. The Falcons' "D" is a big breather compared to what New Orleans has faced the past 5. We're rolling with the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS on the ML as my 8 Star Rookie On The Road Dominator Play! Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +4/-110 Jacksonville Jaguars Rating: 9* Mike's 9 Star Barking Out Loud Dogger (WIN) (BIG ML DOG WIN) Don't think for a second that Jax HC Doug Pederson wasn't cramming for this exam @ his most earliest convenience. Once you coached against the Cowboys, it's irrelevant what team you're coaching @ a later date. Jaguars' QB Trevor Lawrence (recorded a HOT 111.7 QB rating with 0 INT's over his last 3 including a 10/0 TD/INT ratio his past 5) is starting to find a groove & his status must be healthy @ game time or this play is scratched. Jacksonville will certainly remember their last bout with Dallas when they got pummeled by a 40-7 count. Beating the Ravens @ home tells me Jacksonville is capable here. My bottom line points @ a system that states to PLAY AGAINST any under .800 non-divisional road favorite off of 3 straight home games (Game 11 or later). This system has gone a take-me-to-the-window 12-1-1 (92%). I further feel Jerry Jones & Co. knows it needs more depth on the WR chart. Acquiring T.Y. Hilton WON'T be a quick fix. The Cowboys get their share of points. With Philadelphia on deck, this team WON'T play a solid 4 quarters. Let's go to TIAA Bank Field in Florida to play the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (buying to + 7 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML as my 9 Star Barking Out Loud Dogger! Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -2.5/-115 Carolina Panthers Rating: 8* Mike's Solid Home Server Play (LOSS) As long as QB Mitch Trubisky is under center, Pittsburgh will look hot & cold. This is quickly apparent when looking @ his 4/5 TD/INT ratio coming into this game. I love what interim HC Steve Wilks has done with this team since taking over for the departed for the Auburn Tigers' HC Matt Rhule. Wilks & his squad are very relevant @ 5-8 SU & sitting 1 game behind 1st place Tampa Bay of which they hold the tie-breaker over. Numbers don't lie! Carolina holds a near-perfect 5-1 ATS mark when coming off a SU win & facing a squad coming off a SU loss. This pick fits like a glove as Pittsburgh comes in a perfect 0-5 SU & ATS when coming off a SU home favorite loss. My bottom line says HC Wilks' has coached 3 home games thus far. After those 3, he's 3-0 SU & has outscored opponents 69 to 28 (Tampa Bay, Atlanta & Denver). Let's go on the rampage to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte to play the CAROLINA PANTHERS on the ML as my 8 Star Solid Home Server Play! Saturday, December 17, 2022 Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2.5/100 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 8* Mike's 8 Star Intra-Divisional Battle For Supremacy (LOSS) NOTE: This play is a pass IF Deshaun Watson (1/2 TD/INT ratio) is benched. If we have any degree of normalcy, we're looking @ a Ravens' squad that's a run-stuffing 2nd-ranked on defense while also ranking 2nd in offensive rushing. They've controlled the line of scrimmage BETTER of late. Nope, they're not flashy without Lamar Jackson healthy. Jackson didn't have overwhelming numbers in meeting one so let's not over-emphasize the QB spot for the purple & black. But even 2nd-stringer Tyler Huntley plays with an edge. Baltimore is still playing for AFC North supremacy with the Cincinnati Bengals & hold a 5-1 SU & ATS advantage over the Brownies the past 6 in this series. Remember, every team focuses for a divisional game. My bottom line points @ a Cleveland that's gone a how-do-you-trust 4-13-1 versus the number their last 18 intra-divisional contests. Yes, the Browns out-gained the Ravens 336 to 254 but still lost 23-20 in Week 7. The addition of LB Roquan Smith has been huge with the defense now giving up 55 YPG on the ground since his acquisition from Chicago. There's also that little matter of coaching. Under HC Kevin Stefanski, the Orange & Brown have gone a ticket-ripping 9-14 spreadwise. Cleveland struggles against the run & has a passing defense ranking in the bottom third of the league. Now , let's move on to a system. The past 10 seasons have seen a home favorite on a Saturday coming off a homer go just 32 % ATS. Cleveland fits that bill right here! The Ravens being 14-2-2 versus the number as an away pup is hard to ignore as well. This will be a war on the line of scrimmage. Let's go to FirstEnergy Stadium in Ohio to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS (buying to + 7 1/2) forcing the Browns to win by double-digits as my 8 Star Intra-Divisional Battle For Supremacy Play! Thursday, December 15, 2022 San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3.5/-115 Seattle Seahawks Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Sure, the 49ers are rolling. But don't think HC Pete Carroll (whose teams was in look-ahead mode versus Carolina on Sunday) will be trying to attack voids left by San Francisco CB's Dontae Johnson (torn ACL) & Samuel Womack (concussion protocol). The Gold Rushers have the # 1 total & scoring "D" in the NFL but have a minimal 36 to 34 lead in sacks over the Seahawks. To me, it's clear that QB Geno Smith is the best signal-caller on the field with 3,433 passing yards, a 71.5% completion rate & has 25/8 TD/INT ratio edge over the newly-installed SF QB in 7th-round draft choice Brock Purdy with a 67.2% completion rate & a 4/2 TD/INT ratio. This game & pointspread looks like a gift since the Niners won the head-to-head 27-7 earlier & are 4-0 SU in the division by an average 30-10 score. My bottom line says we haven't seen how 3rd-stringer Purdy has done in a hostile environment & is without key cog & multi-purpose WR Deebo Samuel. Can this youngster find quick hot reads to exploit a Seahawks' 2nd-tier (with emphasis on LB Cody Barton picking up RB Christian McCaffery coming out of the backfield)? Looking @ some key numbers reveal that the "Emerald City" clan is a tough-to-ignore 10-2 ATS when installed as a home underdog. Face it, SF played almost flawless ball destroying Tom Brady & the Buccaneers 35-7 on Sunday. The numbers showing they only enjoyed a + 85-yard advantage suggests the ball was . Let's bring 17th-year veteran HC Pete Carroll back into the conversation. Since SF HC Kyle Shanahan (6th season) came to the NFC West, he's SU record is just 3-8 versus the veteran. The Seahawks with KC, the NY Jets & LA Rams left, this is a must-win if they want to get back into the 7-team NFC Playoff bracket. We're rolling to Lumen Field in the state of Washington to play the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (buying to a key + 7 1/2 forcing the rookie to win be double-digits on the road versus a desperate team) as my 8 Star Public Missed Perception Play! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 32-21 for a decent 60% NFL Last 4 Weeks: 15-5 for 75%
 


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