Sunday, December 10, 2023 Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7.5/-110 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 10* Mike's NFL Defense Reigns Supreme Play Of The Year (WIN off the BUY) +1000 It's tough to handicap ANY game versus the pure number when you NOW have to factor in things that shouldn't be like officiating errors & an abundance of 2-point PAT tries. I've been handicapping these factors in HEAVILY & mixing them in with picking games where there's sharp lines. Let's now look @ a L.A. Rams squad that's won 3 in a row, 2 @ home versus Seattle plus Cleveland & arizona on the road. The problem this week is they are running into a BUZZSAW who DESTROYS the NFC @ this venue. The past 5 games of the season has witnessed 2 Ravens' home wins over formidable opponents as they pummelled Detroit 38-6 & ran rickshaw over Seattle 37-3. Since the middle part of the season, the Purple & Black have averaged OVER 36 PPG @ home. Yes, LA is 6-6 SU & in the wild-card hunt. However, the 9-3 SU Ravens are battling for the all-important 1st-round playoff bye with Miami Dolphins. QB Lamar Jackson (18-1 SU career versus the NFC) is FRESH (2 weeks to rest for this one off the bye) & has an excellent OC in Todd Monken who came here after leading Georgia to national championships. I'm not expecting this tema to look ahead to jacksonville who will most likely be without their QB Trevor Lawrence next week.There's ALSO a matter of revenge here as 7-point dog L.A. upset a much-different 2021 Baltimore squad (no Lamar Jackson as they went 8-9 SU) by a 20-19 count in Week 17 (the 1st season of 18 weeks). Remember, we NOW HAVE an injured but playing Rams' QB in Matthew Stafford (not recovered from a right thumb injury) going into radically different temps he's accustomed to & without his TE Tyler Higbee (3rd in receptions behind talented WR's Puka Nacua & Tutu Atwell, 1 above Cooper Kupp). My bottom line points to an L.A. defense that's not UP to par ranking 16th overall & 22nd in sack percentage. Their hands will be MORE than full trying to handle the #1 rushing offense in the NFL featuring Gus Edwards (10 TD's), dual-threat QB Jackson (5 TD's & over 5 YPC) & the emergence of Keaton Mitchell (2 TD's & over 9 YPC). Jackson also has a decent receiving corp that can burn secondaries with speedster Zay Flowers & veteran Odell Beckham. In the numbers show Los Angeles struggles mightily versus opponents off a bye going a no-show-@-the-window 0-5 ATS as well as being an anemic 1-8-1 versus the number in non-conference road games & are 6-14 versus the spread versus the AFC. Furthermore, HC Sean McVay chimes in @ 2-9 spreadwise in his career versus rested teams (0-7 the last 7). When McVay's squad comes into a game off back-to-back SU & ATS wins, they've dropped 10 of 12 against the spread. The Ravens also hold edged in Yards Per Point ranking 4th (LA is 21st) & scoring defense ranking 2nd (Rams are 16th). This game is also about turnovers. Baltimore is clearly been more opportunistic turning in a +5 TO differential while the west-coasters come in @ -3. With ALL factors accounted for, here's where we're playing it! We're travelling to a hostile & cold environment of Inner Harbor's M&T Bank Stadium to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS (buying to -1 @ -330) as my 10 Star NFL Defense Reigns Supreme Play of the Year! NOTES: Forthcoming Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 26-1 for 96% +18,100 NET UNITS OF PROFIT Mike's CFB/NFL Overall Record: 39-6 for 87% +19,830 NET UNITS Mike's Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlays Private Plays: 10-2 for 83% + 3,510 NET UNITS OF PROFIT off a sweet 5-Teamer with Chicago, Baltimore, Las Vegas, Dallas & NY Giants Mike's ALL-Football Overall Record: +23,360 NET UNITS
 

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