Sunday, December 3, 2023 Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread - 3 1/2 -110 Houston texans Rating 9* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) Analysis: Jon Q. Public is awful anxious to run to the window & pile a TON of money on the Denver side. What they DON'T realize is it's going to be a tougher task if Texans' HC & DC Matt Burke puts the clamps on RB Javonte Williams (538 rushing yards & 0 TD's) that forces them to put the game into QB Russell Wilson's hands (2,199 passing yards & a 20/4 TD/INT ratio). If his bread-n-butter WR Courtland Sutton can flex dominance when threading the Houston secondary, they could pull out the "W" by a slim margin. These same Texans will be out for revenge as Wilson got his 1st win as a Bronco over them 16-9 in Week 2 of last season in Colorado. What we can't lose sight of here is Denver getting out-gained by 784 yards over 4 road games. I love our chances in this contest after the physical beating Denver took in their 29-12 win over Cleveland (3 TO's) last week. Yes, HC Sean Payton has done a masterful job & is on a current 5-game winning streak. However, they also benefited from 15 forced turnovers their past 4 games. We now need to look @ Wilson on the whole. He's still throwing passes close to the line of scrimmage at an alarming rate & I believe that WON'T work if he finds himself playing from behind. Let's enter the Texans' offense into the picture. Rookie sensation out of Ohio State, C. J. Stroud has done an excellent job throwing for 3,266 yards with a nifty 19/5 TD/INT ratio. He realizes this game could very well be for the last wild card berth. Look for the Texans to turn up their offense a notch in order to grab a lead. The game plan will be to force Russell Wilson to pass in catch-up mode. Why? Because he's averaged just 178 passing YPG in their 5-game winning skein (remember that 4 of those games were @ home). The Mile High Boys rank a distant 24th in passing offense while being 23rd in total "O". The Broncos have NOT fared well when travelling off of 2 consecutive home games. This situation has produced a no-show-at-the-window 1-6 spread mark of late. On the flip side, Houston's 6th-ranked offense in the NFL are adding up the yardage since Stroud was put behind center. They rank 2nd in the league in passing offense (only behind Miami). My bottom line stresses protection of the QB is key. Who does that better? It's definitely the Texans who rank 16th compared to Denver's 27th in sack yield percentage. Look for Houston to successfully employ zone running schemes to empower Stroud to burn the Broncos' secondary through the air targeting both wideout Nico Collins (800 receiving yards & 5 TD's) & rookie WR out of Houston, Tank Dell (709 yards receiving & 7 TD's). The kicker points directly @ Houston who sits a perfect 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 versus the number when @ home off of a SU home loss if they're OVER .500. I love their chances with a defense that's yielded around 21 PPG @ home this season. Here's where we'll play this. We're off to NRG Stadium in Texas to play the HOUSTON TEXANS + 3 1/2 @ -280 as my 9 Star NFL Public Missed Perception Play! NOTES: Even though the VTD site has technical difficulties Sunday morning, it didn't stop the NFL or the selection process on my end. Denver's 5-game bubble burst & the Texans hung on for the dub as I expected to keep the overall win percentage @ a career high. Let's look @ how the cloudy NFL playoff picture is along with seedings heading into Week 14. AFC --- 1) MIAMI DOLPHINS (9-3) - They win the tie-breaker over Baltimore based on having the best win percentage in AFC games. 2) BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-3) - lose tie-breaker to Miami but hold a 2-game lead in the AFC North. 3) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-4) - They win tie-breaker over Jacksonville based on a head-to-head win in Week 2. 4) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-4) - They fall here via losing the tie-breaker to Miami in head-to-head. 5) PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-5) - They win tie-breaker over Cleveland based on the better winning percentage on AFC North games. 6) CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-5) - They lose divisional tie-breaker to Pittsburgh but they win the tie-breaker over Indianapolis based on a 1-point head-to-head win in Week 7. 7) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (7-5) - They lose head-to-head tiebreaker to Cleveland but win tie-breaker over Houston via a head-to-head road win in Week 2. NFC --- 1) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-2) - They are #1 in the NFL & NFC. 2) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (9-3) - They win tie-breaker over Detroit based on a better win percentage in NFC games. 3) DETROIT LIONS (9-3) - They lose NFC-record tie-breaker to San Francisco but hold a comfortable 3-game lead in the NFC North. 4) ATLANTA FALCONS (6-6) - They're @ .500 but sit atop the NFC South with a 1-game lead over Tampa Bay & New Orleans. 5) DALLAS COWBOYS (9-3) They face a must-win versus Philly Sunday. They take over 1st place in the division if they do. However, if BOTH run the table after that, Philadelphia would win the division via the 3rd tie-breaker (a better common opponents record). Why? Because the Eagles beat 3-10 Arizona & the Cowboys didn't. 6) MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-6) - They win the tie-breaker of the LA Rams based on a better record in NFC games. The Rams win the tie-breaker over the Seahawks based on 2 head-to-head losses in Weeks 1 & 11. The Vikings also win the tie-breaker over Green Bay based on head-to-head road win in Week 8. 7) GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-6) - Even though they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Minnesota, they win the tie-breaker for the last spot over the 6-6 LA Rams based on a head-to-head Week 9 home win. Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 25-1 for 96% for + 17,100 NET UNITS of PROFIT Mike's CFB/NFL Combined Overall Record: 38-6 for 86% & good for +18,830 Net Units Mike's Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlay Private Plays: 9-2 for 82% for +2,955 NET UNITS of PROFIT Mike's ALL-FOOTBALL 2023-24 Net Units Record: + 21,785