Sunday, November 26, 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -1/-110 Jacksonville Jaguars Rating: 9* Mike's Revenge Game of the Month (WIN) I believe Jacksonville is TOO GOOD to have just 1 win (1-10 SU) in this series since 2018 & are 3-16 SU the past 19! Yes, the Texans sit just 1 game behind the Jags & it appears like they went to EverBank Stadium in Florida & opened up a can of whoop-ass in a 37-17 decision back in Week 3. But this game is much more involved than just C.J. Stroud throwing for more TD's & having less INT's than Trevor Lawrence. Back in the first meeting, the Jaguars beat themselves with 2 turnovers (1 blocked FG) & their defense did not play up to their status quo. Overall, Jacksonville out-rushed 116 to 96, out-passed 288-280 & controlled the clock versus the Texans. I feel HC Doug Pederson & DC Mike Caldwell have a 3-4 defensive scheme with a good secondary (S Andre Cisco & CB Darious Williams have 6 combined INT's) that can neutralize skill-position players with speed. They rank 7th in the league in scoring "D" yielding around 20 PPG. On the other side of the ball, Pederson is a master of using speed in misdirection. He is the better coach with the better personnel. Former San Francisco DC & now Houston rookie HC DeMeco Ryans' defense is built to win IF they can get turnovers. They failed to get a turnover versus a mediocre Colts' squad & a 29th in scoring offense of the Panthers that resulted in 2 losses by 31-20 & 15-13 counts. The Texans are 6-4 SU but have played a relatively soft schedule overall to this point. My bottom line says QB Trevor Lawrence should play with that extra fire of revenge here. He just became the 1st QB in Jacksonville history (no, Mark Brunell & David Garrard didn't do it) to throw for 2 TD's & rush for 2 TD's in the same game. He did come here last season & left with a 31-3 blowout win. It's also tough to deny these Jaguars have had laser focus away from Everbank. Coming into this game, they've won 8 consecutive regular season games away from their back yard (5-0 this season). They have the most-opportunistic defense in the AFC (20 takeaways & 1 behind SF for the NFL lead) & should find success with DE's Josh Allen & Travon Walker setting the edge. Crunching the numbers reveal this when Jacksonville is playing between Game 9 & Game 12 of the season. IF the Jaguars are a better than .500 team FACING a better than .500 team, they're a take-me-to-the-window 10-2 versus the number! This is a very BIG stage for a such a YOUNG Houston team. We're rollin' into NRG Stadium to play the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (buying to + 3 1/2 @ -220) as my 9 Star Revenge Game of the Month! NOTES: Here's the way the NFL Playoffs are shaping up thus far with seeding in bracket: AFC 1st Round --- 1) Baltimore Ravens - BYE 7) Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs - 5) Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4) Miami Dolphins - 6) Cleveland Browns @ 3) Jacksonville Jaguars NFC 1st Round --- 1) Philadelphia Eagles - BYE 7) Minnesota Vikings @ 2) San Francisco 49ers - 5) Dallas Cowboys @ 4) Atlanta Falcons - 6) Seattle Seahawks @ 3) Detroit Lions There's just certain matchups you have to like. I liked Jacksonville with the better coach in Doug Pederson & revenge on their side pushing the line to OVER 3. Final Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 24, Houston Texans 21. LESSON 101: When you see a rookie HC best a proven veteran-coached team with slightly-better talent in divisional meeting 1 of 2, EXPECT a donnybrook in meeting 2 if the revenge team is healthy & home. You want to take them & buy points past your carefully calculated worst scenario pointspread. Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 24-1 for 96% good for an awesome + 16,200 NET UNITS of PROFIT Mike's CFB/NFL Overall Record: 37-5 for 88% for a NET PROFIT of + 19,310 Units Mike's Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlay Private Plays: 9-2 for a surreal 82% for + 2,955 NET UNITS of PROFIT Mike's All-Football Net Units Record: + 22,265 Units