Sunday, November 13, 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +10/-120 Jacksonville Jaguars Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Sandwich Play Of The Week (WIN off the buy) Kansas City is an excellent team with an excellent QB who holds the longest SU win streak in 70 years with 23 wins in the months of November & December only. However, their last 3 games played were wars as they lost to Buffalo 24-20 @ home, beat the 49ers on the road 44-23 & had to go OT last week in finally disposing the Titans 20-17 @ this venue. HC Doug Pederson knows this is the week to pull the upset wit the Chiefs facing a heated battle @ SoFi with the AFC West 2nd-place Chargers next week. The KC offensive line (like last week versus the Titans) will be facing a physical front of the Jaguars. QB Trevor Lawrence (rushed for 53 yards LW) was efficient going 25-for-31 for 325 yards in Jacksonville's 27-20 road win @ Las Vegas. Even though these Jaguars don't look the part @ 3-6 SU, the true fact remains they have tied or lead the game in the fourth quarter in 5 of their 6 losses. That's pretty hard to ignore getting double-digits. The only other road trip facing this division saw Jax come into SoFi & pummel the Los Angeles Chargers 38-10 as 6 1/2-point underdogs. Numbers clearly show KC being a lacking 8-15 versus the spread as a favorite of 7 or more the past 2+ seasons. If we take into account the key number of 7+, the chalk has gone an Antarctic 11-20 ATS. Get pumped & ready because we're going to legendary Arrowhead Stadium in Missouri to play the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (buying to + 11 1/2) as my 9 Star NFL sandwich Play Of The Week! Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +6.5/-110 Minnesota Vikings Rating: 8* Mike's Buy Points Play Of The Week (WIN) If there's any game besides my GOY this weekend, this is it. Already, this spread number is the highest number a 7-1 SU team has ever been underdog. In fact the past 40 years, in the 18 games a 7-1 team has been installed as an underdog, those teams have come back strong going a take-me-to-the-window 14-4 versus the number. Remember, it's Vikings' HC Kevin O'Connell whose wearing a Super Bowl ring. He's come to Minnesota & successfully changed the Vikes from an 11 personnel team (3 WR, 1 RB & 1 TE) into a multiple offense using crafty run-game concepts. What's changed since last season since offensive stats aren't too different? They've been passing more on 1st down using aggressive high-percentage targets & creating manageable 2nd downs instead of 2nd & longs. The Bills' defensive tendency of overplaying the pass sets up a Purple & Gold ground game that should get yardage, especially if versus 8-man fronts. The Vikings led the NFL versus that look @ 5.6 YPC. The Jets were successful doing this versus Buffalo last week @ MetLife. My bottom line says I'm not sure if starting Case Keenum is the answer if Josh Allen isn't ready. Minnesota won't use a spy on Keenum freeing another defender. If Allen does go, will he decide to go on long runs knowing his elbow to stay intact? He's big but I question his throwing mechanics if forced into service this particular week. I love the fact that the Vikings' newly-acquired TE T.J. Hockenson got targeted 9 ties last week & had 9 receptions in his debut in Washington. Give him time to become an added dimension to an offensive arsenal. I feel getting big points on the other side of the 10 is huge here. Let's go Highmark Stadium (how about Ralph Wilson, huh?) in Orchard Park to play the MINNESOTA VIKINGS (buying to + 10 1/2) as my 8 Star Buy Points Play Of The Week! Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3.5/-115 Cleveland Browns Rating: 10* Mike's NFL Regular Season Game Of The Year (LOSS) Word to HC Kevin Stefanski -- "When your team has close to an aggregate 80 + yard edge in rushing offense (ranks 3rd) & another 30+ yard total defense (Miami ranks 22nd), you better rule the line of scrimmage. Love the fact the early money kept rolling in on the Fish but the line came down. That's fine. My philosophy's always been that I have a team & a line. If I'm good enough, it will deliver! Check every play in articles @ VTD for the WHOLE season the past 2 years & you will see. I believe that rested Cleveland will impose their physicality on the Dolphins' offense to get this "W". These very rested & fresh Brownies have a long history of beating this team versus the number with 7 of 8 return visits to the window. It's been a road & underdog driven series between these 2. Since Week 1, the fact is the Turquoise & Orange don't have a win by more than 6 & have gone a no-show 0-3-1 ATS as a favorite! Their current 3-game winning streak average win total is buzzing @ close to 4 PPG. Everyone looks @ records & see Cleveland @ 3-5. Guess what? This team is still very relevant in getting the AFC North crown IF they get the win here. It's all about urgency. I further feel Orange & Brown QB Jacoby Brissett (facing just a 23rd-ranked sack attack & a can't get off the field 27th in 3rd-down "D") wants to show Miami they were wrong for letting him go. Brissett also wants to impress since the day of Deshaun Watson's return (December 4th @ Houston) is getting closer. Yes, QB Tua Tagovailoa is 3-0 SU since returning & his WR duo of Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle are always deep threats. However, these Browns have DE Myles Garrett playing 'In The Zone' (became the 1st Brown ever to record 65 career sacks) & injured CB Denzel Ward is now back & looking to prove his new contract extension is worthy. On the flip side of the ball, RB Nick Chubb (841 rushing yards-ranks 2nd & a league-leading 10 TD's) is ecstatic to have OT Wyatt Teller due back & should get some angry runs in after the early adrenalin & dust clear. My bottom line goes in to dig in a litter deeper & crunch some key numbers. Cleveland is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back roadies (@ Buffalo next week) & have gone a momentum-grabbing 5-1 spreadwise after a divisional home game. This team has shown up on the road against teams with a winning home record posting a 6-2 spread mark the last 8. On the flip side, the Dolphins have NOT performed well versus teams with losing SU records going 1-4 ATS of late. The dagger for us is HC Kevin Stefanski who stands a dominant 11-6 versus the number in the live dog category. Let's jet down to the comfy 80+ degree weather in Miami Gardens to Hard Rock Stadium to play the CLEVELAND BROWNS (buying to + 4 1/2) with a multo bunch of pasta on the ML as my 12 STAR NFL Regular Season Game Of The Year! Houston Texans vs. New York Giants (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +5/-115 Houston Texans Rating: 9* Mike's Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (LOSS) Everyone's wondering if "Mattress Mack" is using these Texans in a BIG way like he did on the Astros in the World Series. I hope he did. However, the knee-jerk reaction is climb on the off their bye week Giants side since we have NY RB Saquon Barkley (779 rushing yards & 5 TD's) matching up nicely versus Houston's 32nd-ranked rushing defense (181 YPG). As ESPN's Lee Corso (coached Indiana in CFB & the Orlando Renegades in the USFL) quotes, "Not so fast my friend!" The Broadway rushing "D" hasn't done much better giving up 137 YPG ranking a distant 25th plus lost their best defensive player in 3rd-yer pro out of Alabama S Xavier McKinney (played all 506 snaps this season but fractured his hand on an ATV in Mexico). I feel the key to this game falls on Texans' HC & DC Lovie Smith in successfully stacking the box, containing QB Daniel Jones on any bootlegs & forcing him to throw into risky windows of the secondary. Remember, these Giants rank a very low 29th in YPP margin. Does that sound like a team that's about to win by a comfy double-digits? This same Houston squad won the time of possession against the 8-0 SU Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night last week. RB Dameon Pearce (678 rushing yards) has been very successful as the Texans have rushed past the century mark in 4 of the last 5. The key here is to employ the advantage of Houston being 4-1 ATS if getting 6 or more points. It's a comfort knowing Smith has WR's Nico Collins & Brandin Cooks on the verge of teaming up. My bottom line says the Giants when up against .150 or lower competition have gone a ticket-ripping 4-12 versus the number as chalk. Lovie Smith is also a perfect 10-0 ATS as a dog when coming off a loss of 8 or more. Let's head to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford to play the HOUSTON TEXANS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 9 Star Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7.5/-110 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Headliner Moneyliner (WIN) There's numerous things to like about playing this game on the moneyline. The Chargers have to play back-to-back road games @ opposite ends of the country which is will only be road game # 2 of 4 during a 5-week span. While Los Angeles OLB Khalil Mack (lead team in sacks with 6) creates a matchup problem for the 49ers RT Mike McGlinchey (whose been struggling as of late), I expect HC Kyle Shanahan to make the adjustments after a 2-week prep for this game. While San Francisco is set to play in the higher elevations (more than 600 m higher than Empower Stadium @ Mile High in Denver) @ Aztec Stadium in Mexico City next week versus Arizona, these Chargers have a heated home affair with 1st place Kansas City waiting in the wings. However, the fact that the Chargers have won their past 5 meetings (weather in LA or San Diego) will be tremendous fuel for the fire to QB Jimmy Garoppolo who should have (for the 1st time) WR Deebo Samuel & newly-acquired Christian McCaffrey on the field. The game plan is a steady dose of these playmakers so they stretch the LA defense horizontally & stay away from their best secondary man in S Derwin James. On the flipside, we have a very intimidating defense of DC DeMeco Ryans that's bread n' butter men are DE Nick Bosa (leads team with 6 sacks) & S Talanoa Hufanga (leads team with 3 INT's). With a 4-4 SU record, there's an absolute sense of urgency here since the play of the Seattle Seahawks has vaulted them into 1st place by 1 1/2 games heading into this week over San Francisco. While Los Angeles could stay in it if they successfully make RB Austin Ekeler (427 rushing yards, 6 TD's, team-leading 60 receptions for 381 receiving yards & 4 more TD's) their focal point throughout. I'm going with MLB Fred Warner to successfully contain Ekeler & runs by QB Justin Herbert. Crunching the numbers show that Los Angeles has gone a staggering 2-10 spreadwise in the month of November. The Niners are also a superb 6-1 ATS versus winning teams & 6-1 @ home. Shanahan won't fail in getting his team properly motivated since the Bay Area club is 0-2 SU versus the AFC West Division thus far (lost 11-10 @ Denver in Week 3 & lost to KC 42-24 @ home in Week 7). I believe SF goes on a SU winning streak (not ATS) so that's where we're going here. Making our way to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS laying the juice as my 9 Star Headliner Moneyliner! Monday, November 14, 2022 Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -11/-110 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 9* Mike's Monday Night Football Smart Play (LOSS) It's time for Round 2 of the Washington-Philadelphia NFC East rivalry. Yes, the Commanders are playing well & have had close games the last few. Upon further examination, who have they played? They've gone 2-2 SU versus the NFC North. They beat Green Bay 23-21 @ home but lost 36-27 @ Detroit. How have they done versus the more-important NFC East? They lost @ home 24-8 versus the Eagles & got manhandled @ Dallas 25-10 when the lights shined brightest. Scoring 9 PPG versus your division & going on the road with a 21st-ranked offense versus a 3rd-ranked defense isn't a winning recipe without some edges. It's tough to come back to play this versus a team with extra rest when you're coming off 3 straight emotional draining close games. Philadelphia won both lines of scrimmage earlier & sacked the QB 9 times & now face that same O' Line ranked 29th @ protecting their QB. Even though Taylor Heinicke is under center now instead of Carson Wentz, what does he do better than just throwing out of the pocket better? While its a plus when DE Chase Young is back, QB Jalen Hurts' 12/2 TD/INT ratio is solid enough to get the "W" when you take into account a large turnover differential advantage that Philadelphia sits @ an NFL best + 15 with Washington chiming in @ -4. My bottom line says a BIG advantage Eagles' is CB Kendall Fuller has had no answer for WR DeVonta Smith who tallied 169 yards in receptions in Round 1. While this is the NFL (which sometimes stands for "Not For Long"), the Commanders have not proven they can't beat a winning team in 4 tries SU. Three of the 4 wins were against Jacksonville, Chicago & Indianapolis who have a combined record of 10-19-1. I'm not interested in playing the number since (look how many times we've lost by the hook) SU is where the numbers dictate a selection. Let's not look @ lines, values & concentrate on rolling up a long line of W's. It's still Fly Eagles Fly as we go Lincoln Financial Field to play the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES laying the ML lumber as my 9 Star Monday Night Football Smart Play! Monday, November 14, 2022 Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -11/-110 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 9* Mike's Monday Night Football Smart Play (LOSS) It's time for Round 2 of the Washington-Philadelphia NFC East rivalry. Yes, the Commanders are playing well & have had close games the last few. Upon further examination, who have they played? They've gone 2-2 SU versus the NFC North. They beat Green Bay 23-21 @ home but lost 36-27 @ Detroit. How have they done versus the more-important NFC East? They lost @ home 24-8 versus the Eagles & got manhandled @ Dallas 25-10 when the lights shined brightest. Scoring 9 PPG versus your division & going on the road with a 21st-ranked offense versus a 3rd-ranked defense isn't a winning recipe without some edges. It's tough to come back to play this versus a team with extra rest when you're coming off 3 straight emotional draining close games. Philadelphia won both lines of scrimmage earlier & sacked the QB 9 times & now face that same O' Line ranked 29th @ protecting their QB. Even though Taylor Heinicke is under center now instead of Carson Wentz, what does he do better than just throwing out of the pocket better? While its a plus when DE Chase Young is back, QB Jalen Hurts' 12/2 TD/INT ratio is solid enough to get the "W" when you take into account a large turnover differential advantage that Philadelphia sits @ an NFL best + 15 with Washington chiming in @ -4. My bottom line says a BIG advantage Eagles' is CB Kendall Fuller has had no answer for WR DeVonta Smith who tallied 169 yards in receptions in Round 1. While this is the NFL (which sometimes stands for "Not For Long"), the Commanders have not proven they can't beat a winning team in 4 tries SU. Three of the 4 wins were against Jacksonville, Chicago & Indianapolis who have a combined record of 10-19-1. I'm not interested in playing the number since (look how many times we've lost by the hook) SU is where the numbers dictate a selection. Let's not look @ lines, values & concentrate on rolling up a long line of W's. It's still Fly Eagles Fly as we go Lincoln Financial Field to play the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES laying the ML lumber as my 9 Star Monday Night Football Smart Play! QUICK NOTES: I wish I knew the impact of Eagles DT Jordan Davis' absence BEFORE kickoff. Even though it was super sweet with a late info. play on Minnesota ML over Buffalo, I was thoroughly disappointed with Cleveland's DC Joe Woods who failed to make halftime adjustments. He broke away from the bread n' butter of getting physical upfront (like they did 3 weeks ago on MNF with Joe Burrow & Cincinnati) with Miami's talented receiving corp. (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle & the emergence of Trent Sherfield). Maybe he should take careful notes on the groundwork laid by Mike Vrabel & Bill Belichick on properly implementing situational football. He's too involved with his laminated sheets on the sidelines. If he doesn't start making proper evaluations with the employment of alignments, he'll be out the door soon! Another under par 3-3 week says we're quickly moving on to Week 11! NOTES/POWER RANKINGS: 1) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -- By default, they're still here for now. However, there's a BIG problem on "D" that needs to be solved that everyone seems to WANT to overlook. That is the absence of 6'6", 341-pound DT Jordan Davis. The freakish run-stuffer out of Georgia has been missing since Week 8. Since then, Philly Steak N' Cheese has saw a radical change in their rushing defense that has yielded 155 yards per game as opposed to just 110 with Davis in the lineup. Let's see if their turnover deficit last game (a -2 to Washington) is a one-timer or repeat discombobulation. They're 2-0 versus winning teams but took on the 32nd-toughest schedule. 2) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -- While everyone says Buffalo is 8 points away from being undefeated, KC is actually 7. Yes, the Bills edged the Chiefs earlier. However, it's tough to put Buffalo #2 after QB Josh Allen's 10 INT's (Mahomes has 7) & lost fumble @ his own 1 yard-line that was pivotal in their home OT loss to the Vikings Sunday. WR Kadarius Toney made his new presence felt with 90 scrimmage yards & 1 TD. (3-1 versus winning teams) 3) MINNESOTA VIKINGS -- Yep, they're a shaky 3rd but nevertheless, the balls have been bouncing their way off to a 8-1 SU record. If WR Justin Jefferson, OLB Za'Darius Smith & CB Patrick Pederson can turn in dominating plays, the sky is the limit if QB Kirk Cousins (14/8 TD/INT ratio) can show improvement under OC Wes Phillips. 4) BUFFALO BILLS -- This best team on paper better start showing up on the field in crunch time like they did early on (3-3 versus winning teams). This team takes on a whole new complexion if their secondary remains banged-up . 5) MIAMI DOLPHINS -- Bad losses to Cincinnati & the New York Jets has them here. They could take a climb if QB Tua Tagovailoa starts & finishes a game (Fish undefeated when he does that) plus gets a consistent ground game from RB's Raheem Mostert & the newly-acquired Jeff Wilson. 6) BALTIMORE RAVENS -- This team's defense (faced the 5th-toughest schedule) is definitely for real after the acquisition of OLB Roquan Smith from Chicago. With a rushing output of 150 yards+ versus the Panthers @ M & T Bank Stadium, they'll match the 1985 Super Bowl Champion Chicago Bears' (with Walter Payton & Matt Suhey) streak of 9 consecutive games with that many rushing yards. 7) DALLAS COWBOYS -- The Pokes didn't finish the deal for HC Mike McCarthy in his return to Lambeau losing in OT 31-28 to a struggling Packers' 4-6 team. Guess what? They better bring their "D" this weekend when they take on a Minnesota team scoring about 29 PPG & 400 total YPG. 8) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -- This team wins with a stifling defense & a balanced offense. Let's see how HC Kyle Shanahan keeps the running game balanced with carries from Elijah Mitchell & Christian McCaffrey. 9) NEW YORK JETS -- What a climb this squad embarked upon. Hey, they're 6-3 SU & ahead of Buffalo in the AFC East. They've earned Top 10 status since they've taken on the NFL's 2nd-toughest schedule. Divisional rival New England is up next & we'll see if they're up to the challenge. 10) NEW YORK GIANTS -- A BIG game on Thanksgiving looms large with their 2nd meeting with Dallas in Texas. But first it's Detroit @ home who has a play-the-spoiler game with Buffalo @ home also on Thanksgiving. 11) TENNESSEE TITANS -- This team could be on the rise. Even though they don't look impressive on offense, they keep winning with a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in YPP (Yards Per Point). They've beaten the teams they should beat going 6-0 SU versus losing teams. They desperately need a consistent passing game or they will be in trouble versus the AFC elite. 12) CINCINNATI BENGALS -- After Pittsburgh this weekend, the stiffer competition arrives with Tennessee & Kansas City back-to-back. They should be fresh off their bye week. 13) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -- Pete Carroll's squad are on their bye week. They should be moving up with 3 straight winnable games on deck against the likes of Las Vegas, the Los Angeles Rams & Carolina. 14) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -- They just get a slight nod over New England based on a better record versus winning teams (TB 2-2 & NE 1-2). Belichick's Bunch may be slightly better @ 5-4 SU but that's taking on the 27th-toughest schedule. OTHERS ON THE BUBBLE -- There's the 5-4 Los Angeles Chargers, 5-5 Washington Commanders & the 4-6 Green Bay Packers who it remains interesting to see if rookie WR Christian Watson's 107 yards & 3 TD receptions versus a previously solid Dallas secondary is up & coming or a one-trick pony . Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 14-14 for a room for radical improvement 50%