Monday, November 13, 2023 Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +7.5/-110 Denver Broncos Rating: 5* Mike's Monday Night Ugly Pig Play (WIN) +500 Sometimes it looks like a crappy Sunday & you just have to pass. But tonight, we're looking @ a 5-4 SU Bills' squad that's 2-3 SU their last 5. Since Week 1, they have 16 players either out or injured coming into this game. It's tough when you have safety Micah Hyde (neck/stinger) & cornerback Christian Benford (hamstring) out while linebacker Terrel Bernard (concussion)remains questionable. In addition, safety Jordan Poyer (shin) & edge rusher Leonard Floyd (illness) look like they be playing but hurt. On the flip side of that, we have a more-desperate 3-5 SU Denver team that's healthy plus coming off the bye week (they're 10-3 ATS the last 13 off the bye). The Broncos have molded into a better-balanced, running team with having the 4th-highest rushing percentage over the past month. This suits them just fine since we have an injury-riddled Buffalo defense that's already ranked 30th versus the run coming in. You can poke fun @ the Broncos' "D" all you want for giving up 70 @ Miami on September 24th. However, this defense under Vance Joseph has adjusted well by getting key personnel back in the lineup at skill positions. They're figuring out how to get off the field. They've given up 45 points (15 PPG) the past 3 games & that's with playing the World Champion Kansas City Chiefs twice! They now take on a Bills' squad that's in a sandwich having faced hated Cincinnati last week but have their division rival, the New York Jets on deck. My bottom line says Broncos' HC Sean Payton has watched QB Russell Wilson progress from last season. He ended the season with 16 TD passes (just 4 INT's & 66.1% completions) & already has reached that plateau in just 8 games this year. Buffalo may just be the better team statistically in overall categories. But I believe there's a line & a side where I'll be more than comfortable @ after looking @ all given scenarios. Let's go to Highmark Stadium in west part of New York to play the DENVER BRONCOS (buying to + 12 @ -200 for just 5 Stars as my Monday Night Ugly Pig Play! Notes: There were many factors leading to the outright upset of the Bills. The last time we saw Buffalo this bad after 10 games was during his rookie season. They don't look right & have turned the ball over @ an alarming rate. Sure, that's the Brett Favre gunslinger style that personifies Allen. OC Ken Dorsey was fired after that game. Who knows what would have happened if Matthew Smiley (special teams coordinator) didn't have 12 men on the field @ the buzzer when Denver missed the go-ahead FG? I feel HC Sean McDermott looked @ the whole 10-game picture & decided it's going to be Dorsey out & Joe Brady in. Vance Joseph's revamped defense was clearly evident in both KC game the past few weeks & we were there getting a boat load of points we didn't need. Here's my NFL Top 10 graded with future insight/lasting power for the post-season & NOT by record or pure power ratings/statistics: 1) Kansas City Chiefs 2) San Francisco 49ers 3) Philadelphia Eagles 4) Baltimore Ravens 5) Dallas Cowboys 6) Detroit Lions 7) Miami Dolphins 8) Seattle Seahawks 9) Jacksonville Jaguars 10) Houston Texans Side Note: On November 17th it will represent the 55th anniversary of the "Heidi Bowl" which pitted HC Weeb Ewbank's New York Jets @ the Oakland Raiders of HC John Rauch (John Madden was still LB Coach). NBC executives(who should have moved all programming back) made a rash decision to cut off the game with over a minute to go in a very close one with the Jets leading & Raiders having the ball. This left viewers completely in the dark unless you had a radio station close by to listen to as the Raiders scored 2 TD's (ex-Notre Dame QB Daryle Lamonica pass to rookie RB Charlie Smith & a 2-yd fumble recovery by Preston Ridlehuber) in 8 seconds of that final minute to beat Joe Namath & the Jets 43-32. Clientele question of the week: What's changed this season that has created such a huge change in games & money units won? Answer: I now use a giant database that narrows down a very select amount of plays (sometimes 1,2 or 3 plays & rarely zero). The most exact & sharp lines are established. Then, I'll create a low end & a high end line based on usual probability factors & a bunch of new criteria affecting outcomes. These include 2-point conversions & officials' errors which have become more prevalent this season than years' past. I have to role with the punches of change to keep the sportsbooks' guessing where you're going, NOT vice-versa. Adding to fuel to the fire has to be other arrogant prognosticators who claim you can never come out ahead with this type of approach. I currently have 20,455 units that proves them wrong after 11 weeks of CFB/NFL. Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 22-1 for 96% for a NET PROFIT of + 14,500 units Mike's Combined CFB/NFL Overall Record: 34-4 for 89% for a NET PROFIT of + 18,130 units Mike's Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlay Private Plays: 7-2 for 78% for a NET PROFIT of + 2,325 units Mike's All-Football Overall NET PROFIT + 20,455 units