Sunday, September 08, 2024 Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -260 Seattle Seahawks Rating: 9* Mike's Strongest Play On The Board (WIN) + 900 Net Units Why do we pick the Seahawks over everyone else? Because "Rookie on the Road QB Bo Nix of the Broncos has shown in college & NOW in pre-season that he's finding it difficult to navigate beyond the first read option. Sure, this works when the defense shows a soft coverage & your initial read becomes a HOT read. However, the GREAT QB's in the past have all shown they can master the progression (ala Tom Brady & others) & usually find the open man BEFORE their time is up to release the football. It's going to take time for Denver HC Sean Payton to develop Nix where he's comfortable with his system. To me, that's a tough reach. We have a Broncos' squad taking the field this afternoon that bring in a severely south of the boarder 6-18 SU record on the road the past 3 seasons. Payton's record in his 1st 6 games of the season sat @ 1-5 SU last season. My bottom line looks @ new Seattle HC Mike Macdonald (fresh off coming in from being an excellent DC for the Baltimore Ravens) who brings in a new regime hiring OC Ryan Grubb (Former Assistant HC & overhauled Washington U. with Kalen DeBoer last season/been with DeBoer since their Sioux Falls team in 07') & will be working closely with DC Aden Durde (former D-Line for the Dallas Cowboys). The Seahawks "O" has all the pieces back with QB Geno Smith, WR's DJ Metcalf, Tyler Lockett & Jaxon Smith-Njigba, RB Kenneth Walker, III & 1st rounder/ 3rd-year out of Mississippi State/beefy OT Charles "Sweet Feet" Cross. Cross & Co. should be able to open holes for Walker versus a Mile High "D" that finished league worst in yards allowed per carry @ 5.0 last season. Let's go to Lumen Field in Washington to play the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS on the ML @ -250 for 9 Stars! Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3.5/-110 Washington Commanders Rating: 8* Mike's Under The Radar Game of the Week (LOSS) -1,800 Net Units Ron Rivera & the previous regime is now gone from last seasons' 4-13 debacle where the Commanders lost their last 8 games to end the season. Enter in new HC & defensive guru Dan Quinn (ex-Cowboys' DC) who was brought in to bolster & mold a new D-Unit. He brought with him from Dallas 2 edge rushers in DE's Dorance Armstrong & Dante Fowler, Jr, signed free-agent/12-year vet out of Seattle in LB Bobby Wagner while also signing a host of others for skill-position vacancies. On offense, he'll have OC Kliff Kingsbury working with a Heisman-winning QB in Jalen Daniels out of LSU. To tell you the truth, I'm siding with the rookie-on-the-road here (against the grain) because he has decent supporting cast with WR's Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson & rookie in the slot Luke McCaffrey, a speedster out of Rice. In the backfield, there's always the dangerous dual-threat in RB Austin Ekeler, free-agent signing from the LA Chargers & Brian Robinson. My bottom line points out the Commanders successes against the NFC South produce an 8-2 ATS mark which tells us they're habitually under-valued. Besides Quinn being an excellent dog HC in this price range, HC Todd Bowles & his Buccaneers are a frigid 2-7 SU & 1-8 versus the number when installed as four or less non-divisional home chalk. The dagger for us digs into the NFL database for the past 13 seasons that says NFL teams with a prior season's worst turnover differential come back the following season have jetted out for a combined 177-112-1. This is a significant improvement of about 29% higher than its previous year. Tampa Bay being the ONLY NFC team to make the playoffs the last 4 seasons seems like there's only 1 way for them to go & that's down. We're rolling into the grass @ Raymond James Stadium in Florida to play the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (buying to +8 @ -225) as my 8 Star Under The Radar Game of the Week! Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +4/-110 Tennessee Titans Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) + 800 Net Units The biggest Kool-Aid anyone can believe is that former Heisman Trophy winner Chicago rookie QB Caleb Williams (1st pick in the draft) is the best thing since Sid Luckman hit the scene in 39' bringing the Windy City 4 NFL titles before retiring (still a Bear) in 50'. After we PROPERLY analyze both sides, it's clear that the Chicago offensive line might be slightly better than the Jets had last season. It looks like Williams will heavily target his TE Cole Kmet along with WR's Keenan Allen & D.J. Moore throughout the season while sprinkling something out of the backfield to free agent acquisition from Philadelphia/Georgia Bulldogs' product D"Andre Swift. In the NFL, you need balance! I believe that balance is more prevalent on the Tennessee side where their new O-Line Coach Bill Callahan (2024 Paul Zimmerman Award winner) takes over for the departed Jason Houghtaling. His son & now HC Brian Callahan will reap the benefits since the elder Callahan should be an excellent fit to groom 2nd-year man out of Kentucky Will Levis. Why? Because front office men Chad Brinker & Ran Carthon have put together a good receiving corp that now features WR's DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley & Tyler Boyd. The backfield has moved on from Derrick Henry & have replaced him with free agent from Dallas Tony Pollard. Pollard has a capable backup with speedster out of Tulane/2nd year man Tyjae Spears. On defense, they also beefed up the secondary by acquiring CB L'Jarius Sneed from the Chiefs. My bottom line looks @ how ATROCIOUS 1st pick in the draft QB's do starting in Week 1's. My records show this given situation has produced an 0-8-1 SU record the past 2 decades! I further believe it's going to take MANY reps for Williams to actually get settled in as Bear QB. I'm NOT expecting major fireworks here for HC Matt Eberflus whose career HC'ing record sits @ 10-24 SU. Let's go to legendary Soldier Field to play the TENNESSEE TITANS (buying to +8 @ -215) for 8 Stars! Mike's Private Plays Hi-Roller Parlay - Tennessee Titans + 14 1/2, Arizona Cardinals + 10 1/2, Miami Dolphins + 7 1/2 & New Orleans Saints + 7 1/2 for 8 Stars @ -140 (WIN) +1120 Net Units Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Record: 2-1 for -100 Units Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: +1,020 Net Units