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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Divisional Round Analysis/Review

Mike Handzelek's NFL Divisional Round Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Jan 23, 2023
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Saturday, January 21, 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -9.5/-110 Kansas City Chiefs Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Saturday Public Missed Perception Play (WIN off the BUY) This coaching matchup has very deep roots going back to 1995 thru 1999 when Andy Reid was the QB's coach for Green Bay then HC of Philadelphia while having Doug Pederson as a backup QB to Brett Favre in GB then as a starting QB @ Philly (9 games) in 99' before giving way to rookie out of Syracuse Donovan McNabb. This game is their 2nd head-to-head this season with KC jetting out to a 20-0 lead then going on cruise control for a 27-17 (despite being -3 in turnovers). What are the chances of KC (who lost to Cincinnati in their last home playoff game after building a 21-3 lead losing 2 playoff games @ home in a row? Don't expect Chiefs' DC Steve Spagnuolo (with his 11th ranked in total defense, 2nd in sacks with 55 & 1st in batted down passes) to turn off the gas after building a lead here! This is especially true after watching 10-8 SU Jacksonville BUCK a 40-year old trend that had -5 turnover teams go just 7-169-1 SU. I'm not saying Trevor Lawrence & the Jax' offense with talented RB Travis Etienne & WRs Christian Kirk/Zay Jones has 5 more turnovers. However, Lawrence will be under constant duress from DT Chris Jones (15 1/2 sacks) & will have to deal with press coverages from DB's Juan Thornhill & L'Jarius Sneed who are interception co-leaders. There's many matchups to like on the 14-3 SU Chiefs' side with them being # 1 in offensive yards per play & #1 in YPP (Yards Per Point) margin. It appears like the Jaguars are a dangerous out. Upon further examination, prior to Justin Herbert the Jacksonville defense (who also went up against an overall weak schedule TY) has also faced flawed QB's like Zach Wilson, Chris Streveler, Davis Mills, Jeff Driskel & Joshua Dobbs. But when they face Detroit & Jared Goff, they gave up 40! Even though Jags' OLB Travon Walker is an excellent run-stuffer, the Chiefs come in as a well-rested & playoff tested squad who have a coach who coaches very aggressively in the post-season compared to his more conservative approach of the regular season. My bottom line says Jax just doesn't cover TE's (ranked 3rd-worst vs. TE's & ranked 27th against the pass) well which Reid will properly exploit in offensive schemes with exact routes to spring Travis Kelce into the open holes of DC Mike Caldwell's ( uses a familiar Todd Bowles system) defensive schemes. Numbers show #1 seeds as 0-4 ATS L2 years & just 1-3 SU (KC lone winner). I expect a radical change with that here as Andy Reid has 15 (of 19) career post-season wins by double-digit margins. Besides Reid's brilliant SU record off rest (29-6), let's see how QB Pat Mahomes has done. In non-Super Bowl post-season games playing on a week of rest, he stands a perfect 9-0 SU! He's 3-0 SU & ATS lifetime versus the Jags with wins by margins of 10, 14 & 16 points. Let's start humming again this week as we jet out to a very difficult place to play in NOISY Arrowhead Stadium (I've been there) in Missouri to play the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (buying down to - 2 1/2), in teasers with Philadelphia -2 1/2 & on the laying the JUICE on the ML as my 9 Star Saturday Public Missed Perception Play New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -8/-110 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 8* Mike's NFL East Coast X's & O's Play (WIN off the BUY) Let's not forget that the New York Giants (kudos to HC Brian Daboll for a brilliant season) just beat the Minnesota Vikings (who are 18th on the power rankings chart with ranking 31st in defensive yards & against the pass) 31-24 on the road with career-best type numbers passing for 301 yards/2 TD's & running for 79 more (1st player EVER with 300 pass/2 TD's/70 run) in a playoff game. Many mushes are comparing this NYG's team to the ones of their last 2 Super Bowl's while also going gaga over how close the January 8th meeting was (22-16) compared to the December 11th hook-up (48-22). Yes, the Giants had their scrubs in. However, the Eagles ONLY put enough out there offensively to get the "W" & no more while also preserving Hurts & Co. for a 2-week rest/playoff run. The facts remain that Philadelphia is 14-1 SU (most wins in a season in franchise history) when Hurts starts & carry a 24-6 SU mark their last 30 Giants' meetings. Here's an alarming gap. The Eagles rank # 2 in YPP margin (currently 4th on my playoff power rankings) but take on a NYG squad that come in @ 16th on my overall power rankings. Fellas, it's tough to go on the road on a short week (4th roadie in 5 weeks), tangle with a talented offensive team that's had 2 weeks rest & is @ home AND have to take on a defense that's ranked # 1 in total defense & #1 against the pass. DE Brandon Graham, DE Josh Sweat & LB Haason Reddick are matchup problems for NY. Yes, RB Saquon Barkley will be utilized early & often in NY's ball-control style. Look for adjustments to be made in half #2 (bringing up LB T.J. Edwards) to limit his early success. My bottom line says Giants' DC Wink Martindale KNOWS his ONLY chance is to return to blitz-heavy packages in hopes of forcing Hurts into mistakes. He failed to that effectively in the 1st meeting. Key cog OT Lane Johnson returns which is a BIG deal in protection. Look for WR's A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith to do dig routes & attack the areas left open by Martindale's blitzes. Unlike the recently-fired Vikings' DC Ed Donatell, the flip side of that sees Eagles' DC Jonathan Gannon & DB Coach Dennard Wilson will effectively use on NYG QB Daniel Jones a bevy of looks (using 4 & 5-man fronts) while utilizing a Cover 4 (Quarters)/a 4 Deep 3 Under scheme in the secondary. Since Philadelphia has had a high price of late versus the number, here's where we'll play it. We're barreling to 11th & Pattison @ Lincoln Financial Field to play the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (buying to - 2 1/2), teasing with KC - 2 1/2 as well as the ML as my 8 Star NFL East Coast X's & O's Play! Sunday, January 22, 2023 Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - 3:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -250 Buffalo Bills Rating: 8* Mike's Sunday Open The Flood Gates Play (LOSS) This will be the 3rd time these teams will meet in the post-season with Bengals winning both by a 28-21 score in 81' & 21-10 count in 88'. Weather looks like mid-30's, 12 MPH winds & chance of some flurries. What stands out today is how Cincinnati got here. The Bengals needed a 98-yard fumble return for a TD by DE Sam Hubbard along with a defensive stop in sealing a hard-fought 24-17 win over division rival, the Baltimore Ravens. That 14-point swing was a radical change since the Who Deys' "D" was responsible for 14 points off turnovers out their 24 scored. Baltimore clearly out-gained Cincy by a 364 to 234 margin with their not @ 100%, 2nd-string QB Tyler Huntley. The Ravens controlled the line of scrimmage on offense out-rushing the Queen City Kids 155 to 35. It's one thing to face the physical Ravens once & come back to look sharp. Cincinnati clearly wasn't. But NOW they have to go on the road versus arguably the best all-around football team in the NFL AFTER playing the physicality that Baltimore unleashed on them 2 consecutive weeks in a row! That's a very BIG deal! They also played 15 games with the same 5 starting offensive linemen. Then Week 16 hit & they lost RT La'el Collins (on IR). Then RG Alex Capps hurt his ankle 2 weeks in a row. The last Baltimore tussle last week saw LT Jonah Williams go down to a dislocated kneecap. RG Max Scharping, RT Hakeem Adeniji & their backup LG Jackson Carmen must now play a position he's never played before @ LT. Yes, the Bengals haven't lost since Halloween night, a MNF loss to Cleveland 32-13. However, that was a game where the defense successfully got to Joe Burrow sacking him 5 times, limiting him to 193 yards passing & holding the ground game to 36 yards rushing. With limited time to pass, it's going to be tough hooking up for long plays to WR's Ja'Marr Chase & Tee Higgins. My bottom line says let's not worry about Buffalo QB Josh Allen too much. He's 4-0 SU all-time in home playoff games & is the 2nd QB EVER with 300 yards passing & 3 TD's in 3 straight playoff games. The Bills have a solid special teams guy in KR/PR Nyheim Hines. They've averaged 34 PPG the past 4 weeks despite turnovers & are #1 in the NFL in average victory margin @ 10.6 PPG. Numbers clearly show the Bills spring back LOUDLY after not covering the week before going a solid 10-4-2- ATS. They go up against a Cincinnati that's living on the edge versus the elite going 1-6 ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow playoff teams this season. Buffalo is tied for 1st with KC in scoring offense & is tied for 2nd with Baltimore in points allowed on defense (19). The QB-centric Bills are also 4-1 SU when they turn the ball over 3 times. The rest of the league in that same category has gone 12-62 SU. Look for OC Ken Dorsey to attack Cincy DC Lou Anarumo's Cover 3 with single-high safety looks by using strategic flood-type concepts to attack its vulnerable areas. They'll be a lot of emotion today with injured Safety Damar Hamlin there for a major uplift! Let's get ready, let's get set to go to Orchard Park's Highmark Stadium to play the BUFFALO BILLS on the ML as my 8 Star Open The Flood Gates Play! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 45-31 for 59% NFL Playoffs Record: 5-2 for 71% Mike's NFL Overall Record Last 3 Seasons: 124-59 for a VTD Best 68%
 


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