Sunday, January 15, 2017 Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 4:40 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 52.0/-101 Over Pick Title: 9 Star Sunday Totality Win There's utmost confidence in the pick even though its just a total. Yep, there's a chance for the defenses to step it up. But, I feel that will be short-lived just like when we got burned late in both games yesterday. Conservatism just isn't in the cards. Both of these offenses are capable of putting up late points to push this over the number. That's the ONLY way to go. Let's go down to Arlington's AT&T Stadium to play the OVER (buying to the key number of 50 1/2 @ -141) as my 9 Star Sunday Totality! Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 45.0/-115 Under Pick Title: 9 Star Bringin' It Totals Dominator Win Still kinda' ticked off we actually lost both totals with late scores yesterday. You know we're bound & determined to right the ship in a BIG way by ending the night staying HOT tonight. Even though the weather might dictate rough traction for both teams, I feel the under has been more than solid in 11 of 17 Pittsburgh games as well as the past 3 games @ this venue. Remember, Kansas City played here in 3 of their last 4 games. In those games against Oakland, Tennessee & Denver, the average ending total was barely over 37 PPG with NO game sailing over 43. I also like the facts that Andy "The Walrus" Reid's "D" had 2 weeks to prepare for this one this time around AND the Steelers' defense having vastly improved during the 2nd half of the season. They went 8-0 SU & held opponents to slightly over 21 PPG. Their past 6 of 7 road games have ALSO seen the total fall on 45 or under. Let's go to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City to play the UNDER (buying to 45 1/2 @ -125) as my 9 Star Bringin' It Totals Dominator! Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 4:40 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -220 Dallas Cowboys Pick Title: 11 Star Strongest Play On The Board/Public Missed Perception Loss Many MUSHES & sportswriters will be chastising this pick by dissecting it from top to bottom. I say there's a difference from trying to pick blindly by using momentum & going prematurely gaga over eye tests as opposed to sounder reasoning that covers multiple angles that come up with the way it actually is & should be. There's 1 fact that I really hold a lot of weight on. That's a team that CONSISTENTLY run the ball for over 100 yards per game while moving the ball through the air without many turnovers. That team is the Dallas Cowboys. In the 15 games where they tried to score for 4 quarters, NO team (except the Giants' pass defense) have remotely came close to shutting down this offensive juggernaut. Rookie prognosticators quickly point out the revenge angle siding with Green Bay after Dallas soundly beating the Pack' 30-16 earlier @ Lambeau in Week 6. But for those who really did your homework, they would have dug a little bit deeper to find that the MORE MOTIVATION & TRUE REVENGE are on the Cowboys' side from a 26-21 playoff loss @ Lambeau just 2 seasons ago. There's no question that Aaron Rodgers is looking unbeatable the past 7 weeks with an excellent 19/0 TD/INT ratio. What I am QUESTIONING is the strength of the opposition's offense to consistently move the football. Further examination clearly reveals that NO TEAM of the those 7 wins were a Top 10 offense. We saw Atlanta ALSO beat Seattle pretty bad yesterday like the Pack did on their home field. My bottom line is this. Of the 4 Top 10 offenses that could move the ball Green Bay did face this season (Dallas-ranked 5th, @Atlanta-ranked 2nd, Indianapolis-ranked 10th, @Washington-ranked 3rd), the mushes& sportswriters should know their (self-proclaimed savior whose playing on an out of this world level) Aaron Rodgers & crew went a perfect 0-4 SU losing by an average of 9.5 PPG! NOT having WR Jordy Nelson aids our cause, but it didn't help when nelson was in there when the Packers' "D" failed to stop opposing offenses BETTER than theirs. While Dak Prescott's 23/4 TD/INT ratio doesn't compare to Aaron Rodgers 40/7 Td/INT ratio, that's NOT where this game will be won. It will be in the trenches where Dallas & their beast-mode offensive line wears you down by the 2nd half & especially games end. The Cheeseheads have struggled against the run the last 8 regular season games giving up 113.6 rushing yards on 4.7 yards per rush) Rookie-sensation RB Ezekiel Elliott (1,631 rushing yards, 15 TD's, 363 receiving yards, 1 TD-ran for 157 yards in 1st meeting) & Co. has rushed for around 700 yards more than Green Bay could muster this season. When Prescott does put the ball in the air, his stats show a 8.0 to 7.3 yards per attempt advantage over Rodgers. The dagger for us has to be how effective DE David Irving was on creating pressure on Rodgers the 1st time around. Irving forced 3 fumbles (recovered 1), had a sack with 1 pass broken up. Two weeks prep time should tell exactly what gaps to attack from for DC guru Rod Marinelli. In addition, having 2 weeks to prepare versus a makeshift secondary of the Pack' (players playing different roles) should point out where the mismatches will be. Don't believe that 8 favorites in a row can't win SU in the same weekend! They certainly can. Let's go to AT&T Stadium in Arlington to play the DALLAS COWBOYS (ML to eliminate backdoor covers-but I have them to win by 7 or more) as my 11 Star Strongest Play On The Board/Public Missed Perception! Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -130 Kansas City Chiefs Pick Title: 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week Loss To me, when Kansas City wins or loses, it's usually done in ugly fashion. That is the basis of this plays' title. If this game was @ Pittsburgh, I would certainly favor the home side. There's no doubt that the Steelers showed their superiority by executing offensive prowess in the 1st meeting, a 43-14 blowout win in Week 4. But some things changed since then. I'm not sure how effective QB Ben Roethlisberger can be after his foot injury combined with the slippery field conditions that await ahead. Since this game is @ Arrowhead, I don't believe the officials will be conservative. The majority of the laundry will probably favor the Chiefs. I believe Kansas City is here because they know how to force turnovers. NOBODY had more INT's & they were superb in the fumble recovery category ranking 3rd. Their conservative offense is designed to move the ball & milk the clock. That formula was good enough for a strong 10-2 finish, AFC West Division title & 1st-round bye in the playoffs. Speaking of byes, it's Andy "The Walrus" Reid who has a second-to-none 19-2 coaching record (3-0 in playoffs) & (18-0 SU against sub .888 winning opponents) off a bye week. WR's Jeremy Maclin, rookie Tyreek Hill & RB Spencer Ware know its their success that gets them back to a playoff revenge game versus New England once again (lost to the Patriots 27-20 last season in this round).In the past, the formula of clearly having the higher-ranked offensive & defense doesn't necessarily compute into the pointspread winner. Look for DC Bob Sutton of KC (his "D" generated 33 turnovers & team was tied for 1st with a +16 turnover ratio) to install some new wrinkles in trying to stuff the run--which is the key to the games' winner. Remember, the last playoff trip by Pittsburgh here ended in a 23-13 loss to KC (spread was KC-3) in 2015.My bottom line says that QB Alex Smith has turned his game up for the playoffs. His passing yards per game goes up by 64 yards & his overall TD/INT ratio is damn good @ 11/1. Let's hold our noses as we go to Arrowhead Stadium to play the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS as my 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Saturday, January 14, 2017 Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 4:35 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 52.5/-110 Under Pick Title: 9 Star Earlybird Totals Play Loss Let this be clear---the Seahawks are NOT an offensive juggernaut way from the 12th man! They've proved this over and over again ALL season putting up an average of 8.5 PPG in losses versus the Los Angeles Rams, Arizona cardinals, New Orleans Saints & Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Will they be held under 10 today? Probably not, but I don't look for the 26-24 nail-biter that happened @ CenturyLink Field in Week 6 of the regular season. The Falcons "D" had 2 weeks to prepare for this offense & will shut Wilson & Co. down for the most part. Atlanta knows they can win this one without Earl Thomas in Seattle's lineup. I feel they can chew up enough clock with a lead using 2 bruising backs like Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman that should keep this one UNDER the total. With the exception of the New England game (55), all OTHER of Seattle road games resulted in 48 total points or below. In fact ALL 8 of Seattle road games barely averaged over 35 total points. Let's go to the soon-closing Georgia Dome in Atlanta to play UNDER 52 1/2 as my 9 Star Earlybird Totals Play! Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 45.0/-110 Under Pick Title: 9 Star No-Brainer Totals Play Loss To say DC Romeo Crennel & staff know NE very well is a great under-statement. The 6 Houston coaches who once coached for the patriots number 43 years of experience. This ALSO represents the 3rd time these 2 met in little over a year. But more importantly, when New England gets a nice lead, I look for them to play smart & conservative. Why? To be fresher for the all-important AFC championship to follow. If that winds up biting them in the end remains to be seen in tall order. What many don't remember is that 3 Houston TO's led to most of NE's 27 points in an earlier Patriots' shutout win against them in Week 3. I feel Osweiler has learned much from that game & won't be making multiple errors UNLESS he once again forces the issue. I look for the Tea Men to be content with a 27-13 or 24-10 type win if they stay healthy for the following week. Let's go to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough to play the UNDER 45 1/2 (buy to that number @ -120) as my 9 Star No-Brainer Totals Play! Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 16.0/-110 Houston Texans Pick Title: 9 Star Saturday Super Inflater Loss Anytime we have this high of a spread involving the #1 defense in the NFL, it's worth a take on the RIGHT side of a KEY number. Besides the combines 43 years of past coaching experience the now 6 Texans' coaches have had on the Patriots sidelines, I feel there were many things learned by HC Bill O'Brien from the way the 27-0 road loss to New England went down in Week 3. I look for more of an aggressive approach this time around since QB Brock "let's not say brick" Osweiler has re-built confidence with his Houston offense after last week's 27-14 win over Oakland. But the story has to be DC Romeo Crennel's effectiveness of using an aggressive hybrid 3-4 defensive scheme without injured DRE J.J. Watt. Crennel's under-rated bunch (#1 "D" overall-2nd versus the pass) have registered 8 more sacks than the highly-touted Patriots' "D". They've held in check 2 very good offenses on the road in a 21-13 loss @ Green Bay & a 22-17 division-defining win @ Indianapolis. Once again, I look for strategic fire-blitzing & stunt attacks on QB Tom Brady (tough to sack) that will cause some more hurries & throwaways than he's been accustomed to for the past 2 games versus weaker competition. There's no doubt that HC Bill Belichick's team is the healthiest its been for the playoffs in his 17 seasons there. The lone loss of TE Rob Gronkowski doesn't look as large as once believed considering current the overall team health status. My bottom line says it is VERY HARD to get COMPLETELY UP psychologically for a team you've blown out previously. In turn, it is just as hard to equal the 3-0 turnover advantage that New England has enjoyed as well. This represents the 3rd meeting between the 2 in just over a year so expect a gap in results with that familiarity. Numbers clearly show that since this playoff format began, divisional round # 1 seeds have been a losing proposition ATS with pointspread results dictating 19 cashes out of 26 chances the past 13 years including just 3 of 9 ATS cashes the past 6 years. Adding fuel to our fire has to be the Patriots having 2 successful tries the last 11 times of the post-season in stretching the winning margin past 13. New England has the better QB & talent. However, they are over-priced all-around as proven by shifting focus OFF Brady's 24-9 SU playoff record but ON his 14-16-1 ATS failure. With 74% or so of the action coming in on NE combined with knowing ESPN's FPI having an 11.7-point difference between these 2, I feel there's more than something brewing taking this beyond a key number. I think Belichick wants health & freshness to take priority once he feels comfortable since the Super Bowl is the main prize --not style points. Let's go to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough to play the HOUSTON TEXANS (buying to + 17 1/2 @ -160) as my 9 Star Saturday Super Inflater! Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 4:35 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -220 Atlanta Falcons Pick Title: 9 Star NFL Afternoon Delight Win No, this isn't April 1976 with the Starland Vocal Band's released title above. But this game WILL take place @ a venue where the Falcons want to leave (last season there) on THEIR terms. I DON"T believe this is the same Seattle Seahawks team we saw in the playoffs the past few seasons. Their defense lacks their main cog (FS Earl Thomas) & quarterback. Their offense has failed to crack 100 rushing yards in 6 of 8 road contests. As a result, they've averaged 8.5 PPG away from home versus the likes of the Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints & Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Too much emphasis has been put on RB Thomas Rawls rushing for a franchise playoff-record 161 yards versus a vanilla Detroit rush defense. They now face an offensive juggernaut that's scored more points (34 PPG) than anyone in the NFL. The Dirty Birds produce a clear 12 points more than what the Seahawks could muster overall per game & a distant 19 points more than what Carroll's Class scores on the road per game. Remember, the 8th-ranked offense of Green Bay blew out Seattle 38-10 @ Lambeau just 5 short weeks ago. In addition, Arizona went into the 12th-man & put up 34 in a 3-point road win versus a Thomas-less "D" 3 weeks back. I also believe that Falcons' QB Matt Ryan is NOT the same QB of playoffs' past. Unlike past years, Ryan has ENDED the regular season on a 11/0 TD/INT ratio run. He finished AHEAD of Tom Brady in ratings with 117.1 & the best in the NFL with 9.3 yards per pass attempt. My bottom line says there's CLEAR MOTIVATION & REVENGE angles favoring Atlanta. In their regular season meeting, the Falcons were left with a really bad taste in their mouths after CB Richard Sherman blatantly held Julio Jones without a flag on a potential game-winning drive in the waning moments of a 26-24 Week 6 loss @ CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks had 2 weeks to prepare for that game compared to Atlanta making a brutal cross-country trip, playing their 6th straight game AND coming off a very physical 23-16 road win @ Denver. Now, Seattle makes that same cross-country road trip, plays for the 15th consecutive week AND takes on Georgia's Finest whose 2-weeks rested & prepared. HC Dan Quinn has the MO on the Hawks' having spent a few years there as defensive coordinator. His team is better balanced with a 2-headed ground game featuring Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman. Their combination of 2,482 all-purpose line of scrimmage yards AND 24 total TD's will be tough to match before having to deal with the Black & Red's bevy of receivers (Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu & Taylor Gabriel). This might be a cat-and-mouse affair that looks competitive. However, look for Atlanta to wear down Seattle in the later stages for the "W". Let's trek with confidence to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta to corral the ATLANTA FALCONS as my 9 Star NFL Afternoon Delight! KEY NOTES ADDRESSED: It was plain as day. The Seattle Seahawks offensive line was over-matched. Atlanta's offense was as good as advertised. But what really got under my skin was a Kansas City offense led by QB Alex Smith (with 2 weeks preparation) couldn't start poking consistent holes against a Pittsburgh "D" that's had its share of ups and downs. It's obvious that Pittsburgh looks heavily dependent on Le'Veon Bell. Knowing this was coming, the Chiefs' "D" still did not have too many answers. As a result, we saw Andy "The Walrus" Reid lose his 1st playoff game game off a bye week & see his bye week overall record drop to 19-3 SU! We knew the Pats were getting a "W" last Saturday. But after getting 17 1/2 & watching Brady throw 2 picks, I can't understand how Osweiler was AGAIN having receivers run too deep a rout WITHOUT coming back to the ball. The result? 3 MORE INT's in meeting #2 as we miraculously lose by 1/2-point ATS--despite being on the right side of a key number. We did excellent on totals this past weekend & could have swept if Atlanta weren't in a prevent with a 36-13 lead. The BIGGEST disappointment BY FAR had to be how the Dallas Cowboys found NEW WAYS to lose a playoff game. Making a midget football mistake of leaving the huddle & going back off the field after reporting resulted in a minus 37-yard net swing (15-yard penalty instead of 22-yard pass completion) to take them out of FG range. This was pivotal earlier on since it took key points off the board for the Cowboys. Keeping that in mind, I feel there was even a BIGGER BLUNDER made with about 35 seconds left in regulation. Dallas held the ball teetering in FG range and was faced with a 3rd-and-2. Having the BEST O'Line in football, (if Lombardi coached them) the call SHOULD have been a well-disguised delay (using 1 RB as a blocker) to RB Ezekiel Elliott that would have ran into the teeth of a TIRED defense on its heels. Not only would this have resulted in a 1st-down, but would have taken ANY CHANCE Aaron Rodgers would have had scoring at the end. The Cowboys could have had momentum going into the OT of which I felt they would have came out on top. However, they got cute yet again (did the same stupid thing of running in this situation on the opening drive) and tried to pass for the 1st down. I feel that loss was clearly on JASON GARRETT resulting from bad play selection. The craziness of the playoffs along with MUSHES going on a mini-run continued. The good thing is never lasts & is always short-lived. Get ready for a possible NFL Playoff ATS Game Of The Year this weekend. Divisional Round Record: 3-5 2016-17 NFL Overall Record: 58-52 53%
 

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