Sunday, January 28, 2024 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 3:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -225 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 10* Mike Handzelek's 12 Star NFL Post-Season Game of the Year (LOSS) Kudos goes out to QB Pat Mahomes (4,383 passing yards, a 28/17 TD/INT ratio plus adding to it 389 rushing yards & no TD's), TE Travis Kelce (984 yards receiving, 5 TD's), WR Rashee Rice (938 receiving yards 7 7 TD's) along with HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid for a bag-up job of getting to the AFC Championship for the 6th straight season. Remember that the NFL is still a war of attrition. In it, there's a gigantic price to be paid for a Chiefs' squad that just had to endure 2 "Ice Bowl" type, freezing cold games versus Miami @ home & Buffalo on the road. This will be their 3rd straight game & 2nd on the road in horrible weather that they will force their "Magic Man" Mahomes to pull another miracle out of his hat. I'm afraid it's not as simple as that. They are not remotely healthy with 2 question marks on the offensive line along with 4 defensive players NONE other bigger than their best CB L'Jarious Sneed. In addition to all that, leading rusher Isaiah "Pop" Pacheco (935 yards rushing, 244 yards receiving, 9 total TD's) has a nagging toe injury that could majorly hamper Mahomes ability to stretch the field as the game progresses. Clyde Edwards-Helaire should get some more reps here. On the flip side of the coin, we have a QB having a brilliant MVP season in Lamar Jackson (3,881 passing yards, a 27/7 TD/INT ratio, 821 rushing yards & 5 more TD's) who has, for the most part, his key offensive arsenal intact (minus rookie RB out of East Carolina, Keaton Mitchell (396 rushing yards in 8 games before his injury) that now includes a healthy Pro-Bowl TE Mark Andrews (leads the team in receiving TD's with 6) who is ready to go after a 7-week hiatus due to injury. With him back, I expect Baltimore to use many packages featuring 12 & possibly 13 personnel. The Ravens' rank # 1 in the NFL in rushing (161) & face KC's 18th-ranked rushing "D" (115). Besides Baltimore holding a major edge in rushing, the Red & Gold must try & control the line of scrimmage against the 4-headed coin ground game of Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Dalvin Cook & the triple-threat of Jackson. This Ravens' was in this game last in 2012 when the won Super Bowl XLVII over San Francisco 34-31 in the so-called Harbaugh "Blackout" Bowl. The BIG intangible many are over-looking is this game is the FIRST time since the 1970-71 season for a Baltimore team to HOST an AFC championship (Colts' team beat the Oakland Raiders 27-17 & won Super Bowl V over the Dallas Cowboys, 16-13). The crowd will be a 12th-man similar to a Seattle-type atmosphere which was prevalent last week when the home team rushed for 229 yards on 42 carries while limiting Houston to 10 first downs & 213 total yards. My bottom line says Chiefs' DC Steve Spagnuolo will OVERLOAD the box forcing the Purple & Black receivers to make plays. OC Todd Monken will take what the defense gives him & matriculate the ball down the field with major use of his TE's in different looks in conjunction with Jackson's scrambling ability to improve the angle of attacking the soft zones. Let's now crunch some numbers. The Chiefs gained 7.7 yards each play versus the Bills. However, Buffalo was missing HALF their defenders. The eye test shows KC has strung 3 consecutive games with consistent offensive production. Upon further examination, all 3 defenses they faced were injury-riddled (Cincinnati, Miami & Buffalo). That won't be the case this week as DC Mike Macdonald has only 1 played questionable for this game in S Marlon Humphrey. It's going to hard to move the ball versus the Birds' "D" who are FIRST in yards per pass & THIRD in yards per play in the NFL. They won't be facing your typical KC team since they were a losing 3-4 SU versus playoff teams this season. To beat the Ravens, you have to win the turnover war. The Chiefs haven't done that since Week 6 & face the #1 ranked defense in turnovers. KC carries a 3-2 SU in the AFC Championship the past 5 seasons. Yes, Mahomes has good career numbers as an underdog of 12-1 ATS. However, when the Baltimore offense scores 20 or more, their SU record is 14-1! I'm well aware of Reid's 5-0 SU record versus former assistants, but that when he had the SUPERIOR personnel. Forget the conspiracy theories of po megastar Taylor Swift being good for the ratings. No, the trends of the referee crew of Shawn Smith aren't on the home team side the past 3 seasons with them covering 17-29-3 @ (37%) or in penalties called with deficits in categories like Unnecessary Roughness (26-19), Roughing The Passer (12-7) & Illegal Formation (7-3). It won't matter! I feel the Ravens' "D" is super-fresh since they had 2 weeks rest & were on the field for just 47 plays last week. The KC "D" had 2 grueling bad weather games & were on the field a whopping 78 plays last week. I believe this will hurt them in the end result. Here's where we're going. We'll go to M& T Bank Stadium to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS (buying to -1 @ -165) for 12 Stars as my 12 STAR (Single Play) NFL Post-Season Game of the Year! Records: Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 33-4 for 89% + 17,520 NET UNITS of PROFIT #1 @ Vegastopdogs.com Mike's 2023-24 CFB Final Overall Record: 16-7-1 for 69% + 1,490 NET UNITS Mike's NFL/CFB Overall Record: 49-11-1 for 81% + 19,010 NET UNITS Mike's Private Plays 3/4+ Team Parlays Record: 13-4 for 76% + 4,710 NET UNITS Mike's 2023-24 All-Football Record: + 23,720 NET UNITS Mike's 2023-24 Overall CBB Record Thus Far: 5-0 for 100% + 4,000 NET UNITS