Sunday, January 22, 2017 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 6:40 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -6.0/-109 New England Patriots Pick Title: Mike's 15 Star NFL Playoff Game Of The Year (WIN) Was ANYONE impressed by the Steelers' offense in Kansas City? I certainly wasn't. But the way they played proved my point here. Big Ben didn't make enough BIG plays to win IF he was facing a team with an offense that could get out of the teens. Today, they face a New England team that's been averaging around 35 PPG @ home over the past 3 --including coming off a game versus the NFL #1 defense. Speaking of the Houston game, the Patriots come off winning a game where they played a "D" game with 3 TO's. That was up against the mastermind & defensive guru Romeo Crennel (ex-Patriots' DC). I don't see Pittsburgh DC Keith Butler successfully copying those same defensive blueprints for 4 quarters. Why? First, let's give accolades to the Steelers being able to come across with some successful stunts & blitzes that will exploit rookie LG Joe Thuney & second-year Center David Andrews. But Pitt's early adrenalin will not last after adjustments are made. Just like sharps feel Aaron Rodgers is playing on another level, so too will Tom Brady (28/2 TD/INT ratio his 12 regular season games). This week, he will re-kindle all that winning passion & will be tough to snuff in the end. He's on a relentless mission since NFC Commissioner Roger Goddell went out of his way to frame & railroad him for 4 games during Deflate Gate proceedings. I felt Goddell was on a mission to make NE pay for past escapes of wrong-doings. But the real focus here has to point @ Tom Brady being the better QB on the field. He knows how to win chess matches. If a defense is in Cover-2, he checks down to one of his 2-beater route-running alignments. If you throw 8 men in the box @ him, he'll find the open man (intermediate or safety valve) running quick routes. He plays SMART & with a PASSION even if things are going close to perfect. Yes, those stunts & blitzes will give him trouble. After key locker room adjustments are made (of which Bill Belichick is the master), you'll see different teams in the 2nd half. On the flip side of the coin, we have an efficient Pittsburgh offense that has a few playmakers on it with RB Le'Veon Bell & WR Antonio Brown. However, this offense hasn't performed up to expectations on the road where they could only muster 24 PPG over the past 5 roadies versus Cleveland, Indianapolis, Buffalo, Cincinnati & Kansas City. I feel DC Matt Patricia CAN COPY blueprints from KC last week with one wrinkle. They're willing to stuff the run & take their chances playing an aggressive-style in the secondary using CB Malcolm Butler & FS Devin McCourty as playmakers to contain the long balls. NE's defense has held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less for a reason. They make excellent adjustments. They will take their chances in trying to let QB ben Roethlisberger beat them since his excellent 20/5 TD/INT ratio isn't close to very pedestrian 9/9 TD/INT ratio on the road in 9 games. In those 9 games away from Heinz Field, he has only generated a 37% TOUCHDOWN PERCENTAGE in the red zone. Up against Brady, that won't be enough by games end. The Steelers are also in the TOP 5 in yards penalized. The facts remain that Big Ben is just 2-6 SU career overall versus the Patriots & is WINLESS @ Foxborough. His 17/8 TD/INT playoff ratio is a shade compared to Brady's 21/3. New England is 9-2 SU versus Pittsburgh with Brady. My bottom line says that having RB LeGarrette Blount (ex-Steeler) who led the NFL in rushing TD's with 18 along with the crafty Dion Lewis (4.4 YPR--NE has gone an incredible 15-0 SU the past 15 games with him) is a big plus. This should lead to a higher percentage of red-zone TD's than the Steelers (37% road red-zone TD conversion rate) which should determine this outcome. Let's look @ some other key numbers. Having Bell rushing 59 times the past 2 weeks won't add to his freshness. The Patriots will be a tough out having won 89% of their games SU (33-4 SU;26-9-2 ATS 74%) @ Gillette Stadium over the past 4 seasons. It will be NE's 13th AFC title game since 1970 (16th for Pitt during that span) & a NFL record 11th appearance for a HC in a title game for Bill Belichick (he's covered 59% + since becoming NE's HC but @ a 14-3 pace ATS this year; 6-0 the last 6). It's nice to have a QB like Brady playing with fire (not only from Deflate Gate) and getting a chance @ growing his legacy if he silences critics by winning WITHOUT Rob Gronkowski present. NE just has a plethora of things in their favor. They're focused without distraction. The Tea Men have a "D" that over-achieves due to having no primo-donnas. My dagger for this game is knowing that dominating teams that come off playing rusty but win off their playoff bye week have come back in a big way in their conference championship. Many point out the distraction of WR Antonio Brown posting Tomlin's locker room comments after their win over KC was a big deal. But seriously, the Pats already had enough fire before it was said. The Patriots are the play! We'll side with Brady whose 15-3 SU @ home in the playoffs but a perfect 8-0 SU against .722 or better opposition. New England should easily win by 7 or more but it's still about the number so here's the way we approach this. Let's go to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough for my 15 Star NFL Playoff Game Of The Year as we play the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (buying to -5 1/2 -129 40% of play--but playing @ -2 1/2 -229 for 60% of the play) for insurance! Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 6:40 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 50.5/-110 Under Pick Title: 9 Star AFC Totals Play Loss There's really not much I can say other than NE's defense rises to the occasion in AFC championships. I believe it's 6 in a row UNDERS coming in for the past 6 of these matchups. Knowing the fact that Belichick is a master @ taking away a team's offensive strengths aids our cause. I'm NOT rooting for pick-6's or many points by special teams' to push this over. However, we'll go to Gillette Stadium to play the UNDER (buying to the key number of 52 1/2 @ -150--31-21 & we'll still be good) as my 9 Star Totals Play. Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 3:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 61.5/-110 Under Pick Title: 8 Star Earlybird Totals Play Loss This is the smallest play of the 4 for a reason. There's always the chance @ OT as the 1st game this season was 1-point away from it (33-32). But I think the tension will be high & the offenses tight to start aiding our cause. I also believe (see 1st meeting) that point totals dropped off in the 2nd half after halftime adjustments were made. A 30-27 or 31-30 game is my worst scenario with a 27-20 game NOT out of the question. Why is this? Because Atlanta's a little beat up from Seattle & Green Bay spent a whole lot in defeating Dallas. I'm not buying into Game 2 playing out close or exactly to their 1st tussle. Let's go to the Georgia Dome for its finale to play the UNDER as my 8 Star Earlybird Totals Play! Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 3:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.0/-103 Green Bay Packers Pick Title: 9 Star NFC Championship Survivor Loss I'm not sure if QB Aaron Rodgers will face as feeble-minded of a HC like Jason "Spike" Garrett who passes on 3rd & 2 with Elliott in his arsenal, but I do know he's proven he can adapt to rougher things than he'll be facing this week when he proved himself time and time again during the past 8 games. Even the healthier Atlanta squad have not matched Green Bay's offensive output of scoring 30+ points in their past 6 consecutive outings. For this matchup, the MUSHES are plowing the Falcons' fields after finding WR Jordy nelson is a no-go. But if they've done their homework correctly, they would have found 7 missing players from meeting 1 that the Packers NOW have available for this game, spear-headed by LOLB Clay Matthews (better outside this year than in the middle last season). There's no doubt that DC Dom Capers will have added some wrinkles to his base "30" front with occasional blitzes uncommon to their 1st meeting @ this venue. It will be pivotal for Matthews & LILBRyan to be sound in techniques when occupying themselves in space and hope that ROLB Julius Peppers & MLB (out of U.S.C.) Nick Perry can apply pressure on Matt Ryan (14/0 TD/INT ratio his last 5-36 PPG his last 4 @ home). It will also be key to contain Atlanta's one-two punch of Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman to short gains when running on the edges & between tackles. The Falcons will still get some successful drives if GB plays the run since they have a bevy of receivers like Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel & TE Austin Hooper. The games' SU winner hinges on how effective the Packers' secondary will be in playing nickle coverage with 5 DB's as SS Micah Hyde, CB LaDarius Gunter & S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix must be effective in downfield routes. On the flip side, HC Dan Quinn (Morristown, NJ native just 1 win away from the Super Bowl in only his 2nd season) will have to effectively put a Spy Back on the elusive in the pocket Aaron Rodgers to limit runs for 1st downs. Rodgers needs to establish the run using converted WR Ty Montgomery as his featured back but using Aaron Ripkowski for goal line & short yardage situations. the reason why I like this pick is Rodgers' unparalleled ability to extend plays & his brilliant execution with a 21/1 TD/INT ratio (6/1 post-season) his past 8 games including going 318 consecutive pass attempts before that INT in Dallas. My bottom line says to look for Rodgers to occasionally use (but effectively) a hurry-up in given situations that prevents the Dirty Bird "D" from getting in necessary substitutions. I just hope the officials DON'T slow up this process giving Atlanta an advantage. yes, it will be tough to stop the 8th-highest scoring offense in NFL history, but I feel they won't be running @ 100% after Seattle. Extensive homework into the database reveals that NFL home favorites are a window no-show going 20-36-6 ATS after taking on Pete carroll & his Seahawks--including 1-7 ATS from Game 14 or deeper! Past numbers clearly show that only 18 of 34 teams that scored 36 (Atlanta won 36-20 last week) or more points in a divisional round win have actually survived SU the following week going back to 1981! The dagger for us has to be those SAME TEAMS have gone a ticket-ripping 10-23-1 ATS in the championship round while ALSO going an Antarctic-like 5-17-1 ATS since 1992. In addition, the visiting QB in 6 Matt Ryan-Aaron Rodgers hookups have gone a very consistent 5-1 ATS. Even though the Falcons are flying high, I give a coaching edge to the experienced Mike McCarthy (2-1 ATS in title games) versus Dan Quinn whose making his 1st appearance. I'm not buying into the Green Bay secondary being THAT banged-up. They have ENOUGH skill position players left to keep this game competitive. The rest relies upon who wins the chess match. We'll grab Rodgers with a 36/4 TD/INT over the long haul (last 13 games) whose been brilliant in games from December on forward covering @ a 36-16-2 clip.ADDED NOTE: I can't believe the insanity a Las Vegas bettor is taking riding a 11/28/16 $300 bet that's won in let-it-ride mode up to here for a current parlayed win total of $28,213. This dufus is insanely risking it ALL to win $76,000 today. If he wins through the Super Bowl, it will pay $175,000. Buddy, it's time to get smart & hedge your bet since $28,213 is now on the line. Ok, here it is! The key number to remember is 7. Why? Because these same Cheeseheads are a brilliant 6-1-2 ATS as playoff underdogs of 7 or fewer (7-1 ATS as playoff visitors). We're going to the Georgia Dome for its finale to play the GREEN BAY PACKERS (buying to + 7 1/2 @ -163) as my 9 Star NFC Championship Survivor! NOTES: It was another awesome finish to our football season Game Of The Year plays (3-1 75%) as we swept the NFL with winning the Regular & Playoff GOY's while splitting in CFB winning the regular season GOY while coming up short in the bowls. Flipping to this past weekend, the AFC Championship went as advertised with Brady breezing over Pittsburgh for a 15 Star NFL Playoff Game Of The Year winner. However, I was shocked @ how Green Bay threw away 10 points in the early going & never got on track. I feel it was not only injuries as most proclaim, but DC Dom Capers couldn't compensate for deficiencies like he did when it counted from Week 17 til' now. Capers was clearly out-coached & could not successfully dial-up pressure where it counted on Ryan which left Rodgers powerless after throwing away 10 points of scoring chances. In addition, I thought it would be more predictable to gauge totals in the NFL playoffs but true to form, the MUSHES seem to have more winning weeks than losing in that aspect of the game. We're sticking to the side play for the BIG one so all offers on totals handicapping will fall to the waist side. I've been making side prognostications for a few decades & my ATS record is 2nd to none (32-10 -- 76% On Side Plays) (4-0 L4 & 12-4 Since The Millenium). Let's keep the momentum going after my NFL Playoff GOY next week!
 

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