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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 9 Analysis/Review/Quick Notes

Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 9 Analysis/Review/Quick Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Nov 1, 2022
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Saturday, October 29, 2022 Illinois vs. Nebraska (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -285 Illinois Rating: 9* Mike's True Defenders Play (WIN) There's no substitute for the DC Ryan Walters' tenacious 3-4 defensive scheme that's raked havoc through 7 games as Illinois is #1 in the country in scoring "D" (yielding 8.9 PPG) & the best in the FBS in total defense (giving up a measly 221 YPG). They come in off 2 weeks rest & take on a (3-4 SU) Nebraska squad that off a 43-37 loss to Purdue in West Lafayette. Fighting Illini HC Bret Bielema (2nd season @ IU & 14th overall) & his team control their own destiny since they currently control their own destiny in 1st place in the Big Ten West Division with a 3-1 SU (6-1 SU overall) record. I feel they have an advantage here versus a band-aid team like the Cornhuskers who fired HC Scott Frost after a 45-42 home loss to Georgia Southern as 23 1/2-point favorites. My bottom line says there's quite a gap in net yards as Illinois stands @ a + 195 yards per game (ranks 4th) while Nebraska chimes in @ a - 49 yards per game (ranks 101st). Numbers don't lie with the Loyal Order of Corn being a no-show 1-6 ATS as home dogs of 6 or more & 1-4 versus the number @ home with rest. This fits nicely with the Orange & Navy being a perfect 3-0 ATS as a conference road favorite & a window-cashing 5-1 taking to the road off a bye. We'll rumble into Memorial Stadium in Lincoln to play the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for the "W" as my 9 Star True Defenders Play! Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3/-110 Pittsburgh Rating: 8* Mike's 8 Star ACC Donnybrook Play (LOSS) These 2 have habitually engaged in knockout affairs the past 4 seasons with 6-1 SU North Carolina winning is 18' & 19' by 34-31 & 38-35 scores and with 4-3 SU Pittsburgh winning the past 2 meetings by 34-27 & 30-23, both in OT. Here, I love the fact that Pitt TB Israel Abanikanda (959 rushing yards, 6.1 YPG, 13 TD's) is coming off an off game & should dent a Tar Heels' defense that yields 476 yard per game (ranks 126th out of 131) & 32 PPG (ranks 108th). It's hard to ignore the Powder Blue & Navy "D" has allowed season-high yards to 3 of their last 4 opponents. That's a gigantic contrast to a Panthers' defense that ranks 28th in yards per game yielded (334 YPG) & has held 3 foes to season-low yardage this season. HC Pat Narduzzi's offense has out-gained opponents in 5 of 7 contests & they've shown how resilient they could be when coming off a SU loss. The past few seasons off a SU loss has seen Pitt come back strong posting a 5-0 pointspread mark the past 5 & a 6-0 SU record after the past 6 losses. Week 8 has not been too kind to UNC as they've gone a perfect 0-5 ATS as well as an ice-cold 2-5 as home chalk of 7 points or less. My bottom line points @ Tar Heels' skipper Mack Brown (4th year/2nd stint, 14th with UNC & 33 years overall) when his team's coming off its bye week. In the past 6 instances, North Carolina has won just once & dropped all 6 versus the number. UNC QB Drake Maye is having an excellent year thus far. However, they a very hard time separating from Duke & Miami (Fla) their past 2 games winning both by just 3. Let's go to Chapel Hill's Kenan Memorial Stadium to play 8 Stars on the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 8 Star ACC Donnybrook Play! Baylor vs. Texas Tech (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2/-110 Baylor Rating: 9* Mike's Underdog Perfect Storm Play (WIN) This series has been tight overall (Baylor holds a slim 40-39-1 lead) heading into this 81st meeting that saw Texas Tech run off 15 consecutive wins between 96' -10' before Baylor took over an 8-3 edge over the past 11. The past 3 games have been super-tight as the past 3 winners won by a combined 7 points. The Bears & Red Raiders have been mirror images going 4-3 SU & 2-2 in the Big 12. The Green & Gold have a total defense edge (32nd as opposed to 46th) while the Red & Black hold a total offense advantage (9th to 26th). Both of these teams have dominated ITS (In The Stats) with Baylor out-gaining opponents in 6 of 7 while Texas Tech going a perfect 7-0 in that category. For this game, we're bringing in some awesome analytics that uncovers the Bears carry a perfect storm 15 consecutive tickets cashed when installed as a conference underdog AND up against a 1 or more SU loss team that's coming off of a SU & ATS win. These same Red Raiders are not only 0-5-1 versus the number after scoring at least a 40+ point output but also are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win. I love the fact that the Green & Gold post a 16-5 ATS road record when pitted up against a team with a winning home record. My bottom line says I'll gladly take the better defensive team when paired against a team with 3 dueling QB's. Solid chemistries seem to win out more than not in a game in which the dominant & consistent QB is a good recipe for return trips to the ML window. Let's crash the party @ Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock to certainly back HC Dave Aranda's defending Big 12 Champion -- BAYLOR BEARS (buying to + 4 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML as my 9 Star Underdog Perfect Storm Play! Boston College vs. Connecticut (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -290 Boston College Rating: 8* Mike's Chalk Talk of The Walk Play (LOSS) It looks like taking Connecticut is a bargain. However, their 3 wins (3-5 SU) came against lowly foes such as Central Connecticut, Fresno State & Florida International. Despite the softer schedule, the Huskies have lost 6 out of 8 games (ITS) In The Stats coming in. Keeping that in mind UConn still ranks 120th out of 13 in scoring offense. While both teams' offenses are struggling to say the least (Connecticut ranks 121st & Boston College 114th in scoring offense), BC has the better defense. Situationally, the Huskies will be in revenge mode & on a short week before taking on rival UMass this Friday night. After a 1-11 SU season, new HC Jim Mora (last coached @ UCLA from 12' thru 17') has his team semi-respectable thus far. But I feel there's a whole lot of history in this series which stands @ 12-0-2 career (those ties were in 1908 & 1910) in BC's favor. I feel HC Jeff Hafley's (3rd season) charges have enough credentials to get another "W". These 2 last met in 17' @ Fenway Park where the Eagles came on top by a 39-16 count. My bottom line says the oddsmakers have over-adjusted this line with BC coming off 2 blowout losses to Clemson (31-3) & Wake Forest (43-15). I love the fact that BC has already beaten a decent team in Louisville 34-33 in Week 5. Let's go to the Kentucky Blue Grass of Storrs' Pratt & Whitney Stadium @ Rentschler Field to play the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES laying the juice for the "W" as my 8 Star Chalk Talk of The Walk Play! Rutgers vs. Minnesota (NCAAF) - 2:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +14/-110 Rutgers Rating: 8* Mike's Big Ten Game Of The Week (LOSS) There's many things to like about Greg Schiano's Rutgers entry. This ex-Bucknell grad is in his 3rd year/2nd stint of 14 overall @ the helm in New Brunswick, NJ. Speaking of Schiano, he's a super-solid 30-17-1 career spread mark (8-2 in that role in his 2nd stint) when installed as an away underdog. Even though Rutgers is just 4-3 SU (beat BC & Indiana) & they've out-gained 5 of their 7 opponents, the identity of this team is DC Joe Harasymiak's defense that ranks 7th in the country. His "D" will match up nicely with a (4-3 SU) Golden Gophers' offense that's sputtered the last 3 games (all SU & ATS losses) averaging under 14 PPG. My bottom line says it's tough to commit to Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan (remains questionable) being 100% coming off a head injury. Crunching the numbers show RU being a red-hot 10-3-1 ATS their last 14 travelers & 3-0-1 versus the number in the month of October. There's also a matter of revenge as the Maroon & Gold embarrassed Rutgers 42-7 in NJ back in 19'. I'm jetting to Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis to play the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (buying to + 17 1/2) as my 8 Star Big Ten Game Of The Week! Quick Notes: It looked like Tanner Morgan got a miraculous recovery (bogus injury reports) as Rutgers fell accordingly as well as Narduzzi's Pitt defense to UNC's passing attack. However, solid picks on Illinois (what a defense) & Baylor (blew out Texas Tech outright on the road) made it a salvage weekend. The multiple-transitioning teams make CFB a tricky sport right now. Let's proceed with better caution in a so-far excellent CFB season. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 17-10 for a profitable 63%
 


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