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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 7 Analysis/Review/Notes

Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 7 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Oct 19, 2022
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Saturday, October 15, 2022 Minnesota vs. Illinois (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -240 Minnesota Rating: 8* Mike's Big Ten Big Bopper (LOSS) These Golden Gophers of HC P.J. Fleck (6th season in Minny) have mostly held the Fighting Illini in check while visiting Champaign posting a not-too-shabby 6-2 SU & ATS record since 2003. Adding to it is a revenge factor/payback (7-3 ATS in that category) for the 14-6 Illinois upset win in Minneapolis as 14 1/2-point dogs last season. For this contest, Illinois QB Tommy DeVito (a Syracuse transfer) may be pushed into service on a bum ankle after injuring it in their 9-6 home win versus the Iowa Hawkeyes last week. IU under HC Bret Bielema (2nd season there) is a low 87th in scoring offense, have RB Josh McCray already out with a knee injury until late October & possibly have 3 or 4 more starters out here. This game is a battle of 2 top defenses with Illinois' #1 scoring "D" (8 PPG) up against Minnesota's 2nd-ranked scoring defense (8.8 PPG). The bigger differences for me has to be the Golden Gophers ground game chiming in @ 245 YPG (ranking 5th) compared to the Fighting Illinois' rushing "O" ranking 30th (196 YPG) as well as being better in the red zone & penalty yards Minny-ha-ha is coming off their 1st defeat (now 4-1 SU) to Purdue 20-10 @ home 2 weeks ago. That game was played without their top RB Mohamed Ibrahim(off 3 weeks rest) whose now back for this one. My bottom line says Minnesota holds a good situational edge having 2 weeks to prepare while catching Illinois off 2 physical affairs with Wisconsin & Iowa back-to-back. The analytics clearly state the Orange & Navy have dropped 5 of ATS 6 after a Ferentz Fight & a no-show 3-9 at the window when @ home & facing a team with a winning road record. This fits nicely with Minny being 8-0 versus the number in Game 6 AND a perfect 4-0 pointspread-wise after their last 4 bye weeks. Let's get ready, get pumped as we extend the CFB streak going to Urbana-Champaign's Memorial Stadium for homecoming to play the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS on the ML as my 8 Star Big Ten Big Bopper! Memphis vs. East Carolina (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -220 East Carolina Rating: 8* Mike's Saturday Night Pretender-Contender Revealed Play (WIN) HC Mike Houston (4th season, 7-5 LY & an under-achieving 3-3 SU TY) & his squad let super-talented North Carolina State slip away in Week 1 getting edged 21-20. Then they lost a double OT thriller to Navy 23-20 just 3 weeks later. They held Tulane to 41 rushing yards but turnovers killed an offense that put up over 400 yards in a head-scratching 24-9 defeat on the road. I feel this is the week where they BUST loose against a vulnerable & gassed Memphis team. HC Ryan Silverfield was enjoying a 32-19 lead over Houston last week (led 26-7 early in the 4th) with under 1 1/2 minutes to go. The Cougars then converted on a 4th & 11 AND a 4th & 9 to score a TD with 1:17 left to go making it 32-26. Memphis allowed an onside kick recovery that led to another TD with 18 seconds to go completing a 33-32 shocking loss to UH. For this one, it's "Hangover City" & now take on a decent Pirates' club (ranked 20th in the nation in total offense plus there @ a +104 YPG) who get to pick apart their bottom 10 defense in passing yards yielded. Adding insult to injury, the Tigers have their best defensive player in Safety Quindell Johnson banged up & may not dress. Not only is Memphis over-values by the oddsmakers (currently on a bitter 8-22-1 spread slide) but are also just 2-8 ATS count the last 10 games of this series. In fact, Silverfield is just 6-13 ATS in American Athletic conference action since his inception. Last season's 30-29 nail-biting, OT road win by East Carolina over the Tigers was a bit misleading. They had a 25+ minute edge in time of possession while putting up 502 yards of offense compared to Memphis' 341. I'm expecting a carbon copy of those stats as we witness QB Holton Ahlers having a day on the grass @ Greenville's Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. Let's play the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES just for the "W" as my 8 Star Saturday Night Pretender-Contender Revealed Play! NOTES: What a weekend for college football! My Orange did become bowl eligible @ 6-0 by beating NC State 24-9. I was on campus the last time they won 6 in a row in 1987 when HC Dick MacPherson's then called Orangemen (beat Penn State 48-21 in Week 6) went 11-0-1 & tied Auburn 16-16 in the Sugar Bowl after Tigers' HC Pat "Always Say Tie" Dye had no guts & went for the tying FG instead of a win @ the end. Syracuse was led by QB Don McPherson & future NFL great & FB Daryl "Moose" Johnston. Unfortunately, there was no OT back then. However, it doesn't get much better than the thriller @ Neyland Stadium in Knoxville where a Chase McGrath FG as time expired gave the Tennessee Volunteers (I can hear Peyton Manning now) a 52-49 SEC win over the Alabama Crimson Tide. Yes, the fans stormed the field, tore down, ripped out & then carried a goal post up the bleachers. However, the day didn't start off ideal as Minnesota's QB Tanner Morgan got his rung early & only threw 12 passes (4 complete, 1 INT, just 21 passing yards). His replacement Athan Kaliakmanis struggled mightily going 2 for 6 with 2 of them INT's. My 9 game CFB winning streak came to an end as Illinois' tough "D" & HC Bret Bielema's decision to run Chase Brown 41 times was a good idea. Brown rushed for 180 yards that pushed him up to 1,059 yards for the season (2nd consecutive season over 1,000 yards). The Fighting Illini went to 6-1 SU for the year & completed a 3-week Big Ten sweep over Wisconsin, Iowa & Minnesota. Things went better on Saturday night where a new string hopefully begins where the Pirates of East Carolina had to go to 5 OT's before outlasting the Memphis Tigers 47-45 in Greenville. Stay tuned as my Saturday CFB card should be even deeper than the one 2 weeks ago. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 12-4 for an excellent 75% Last 11 CFB Picks: 10-1 for 91%
 


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Winning Streaks
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- Brian Bitler: NCAAF 21-13 (62% for +$6500)
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