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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 14 Analysis/Review

Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 14 Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Dec 4, 2023
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Saturday, December 02, 2023 Appalachian State vs. Troy (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +5/-110 Appalachian State Rating: 6* Mike's Barking Out Loud Championship Dogger (LOSS) - 1380 This Sun Belt Conference is a weird one this season. Among its 14 teams, parity is supreme since a whopping 12 have records good enough to qualify for a bowl if eligible. We have a non-qualifier in James Madison going 11-1 SU overall who finished on top in the East Division. 8-4 SU Appalachian State (6-2 in the SBC) gets awarded that crown due to so-called but infamous double-secret probation rules for new entrants to the FBS. They'll now take on the defending SBC Champions (making their 4th trip & is 2-1) in 10-2 SU Troy State who went 7-1 in-conference in the West Division. Jon Sumrall (2nd season as a HC) guided his Trojans over the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 45-26 for the crown last season but now takes on a Montaineers' squad that's beaten them 5 in a row & 8 out of the last 10. Everyone was gauging James Madison as the pride of the SBC in their 2nd season. How did these 2 fair out against the Dukes? JMU invaded today's venue & came away 16-14 outright winners in Week 3. Two weeks ago, these same (undefeated @ the time) Dukes hosted Appalachian State as 10-point favorites & went home losers of a 26-23 OT thriller. Both of today's QB's have similar stats with Troy's 6th-year senior Gunnar Watson throwing for 3,141 yards & 26 TD's/5 INT's while the Mountaineers' signal-caller Joey Aguilar has accumulated 3,271 yards through the air for 33 scores/9 INT's. My bottom line says these 2 teams will score. The X-Factor that will have their outcome resting upon their shoulders could very well be App. St. CB Tyrek Funderburk whose secondary must detain WR Jabre Barber (60 receptions for 855 yards & 5 TD's). While it seems like Troy has the better defense, further examination reveals they play in a much weaker division of the SBC. They also face the 120th toughest schedule in the FBS while their opponents from Boone, NC have tangled with the 15th hardest in the country out of 133. With the Trojans facing the 129th best pass defense & 121st scoring "D", their offensive numbers are inflated. Clearly facing the much tougher slate, the Mountaineers finished with a Top 20 scoring offense (around 36 PPG) while Troy managed just 30 PPG. The hotter team has to be App. State whose 5-0 SU their last 5 & outscored their opponents by an average of 40-18. Digging in much deeper, we have the epitome of a dog with BITE! Not only are they a lights-out 12-1-1 ATS as a dog the past 14, HC Shawn Clark (in his 5th season/former App. St. OL) chime in at a take-me-back-to-the-window 8-0 versus the number as a pup of 5 points or more. There's a defined spot where we're going for the MAX advantage & superior edge. Let's go to Veterans Memorial Stadium in Alabama to play the APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS (buying to + 10 1/2 @ -230) with a little pasta tossed on the ML as my 6* Barking Out Loud Championship Dogger! Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 13-5 for 72% for +1,730 NET UNITS of PROFIT

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