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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 13 Analysis/Review/Quick Notes

Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 13 Analysis/Review/Quick Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Nov 27, 2023
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Saturday, November 25, 2023 Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -1.5/-110 Jacksonville State Rating: 8* Mike's Unofficial Bowler Play/Reg Season GOY (LOSS) This regular season hasn't been typical by any means as this game will be my lowest star play on a regular season game of the year in quite some time. Since the Army-Navy game won't be it, this is the last week for this play. We're going to go to the Conference USA where we'll look @ a team that will be snubbed for a bowl (going through their trial period of ineligibility for the post-season) with an outstanding 8-3 SU. That team is none other than HC Rich Rodriguez's Jacksonvillle State Gamecocks' squad. This team did cash money for us last week when they ran rickshaw all over Louisiana Tech compiling 522 yards (they rank 3rd in the country in rushing behind Air Force & Liberty) in a 56-17 breezer. Like I said last week, they have 2 QB's that run very well with Zion Webb & Logan Smothers (the better passer) & are complimented by an excellent RB in Malik Jackson. Things will be a little more tight this week since they take on the 27th-ranked scoring defense with just 4 returning starters ( Jax. St. is 32nd) & 40th in run defense. And yes, HC Jerry Kill's Aggies do have the better passing QB in Diego Pavia with 2,458 passing yards & a 22/6 TD/INT ratio. However, this New Mexico State squad has to be a little distracted (who were recently an independent before joining this year) as they're already in the Conference USA Championship next week & installed as 10-point dogs versus the Liberty Flames @ Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Virginia. The Aggies are coming off the high of highs after going to Auburn last week & humbling the Tigers 31-10 with a balance attack (213 rushing/201 passing). My bottom line says the motivation will be high with today's visitor who have a clear situational advantage. Why? combine the physicality of what the Aggies' just face with their opponent playing their unofficial bowl game right & UI think we have more than something brewing. If this line gets to -2 1/2 or better, the Gamecocks are also a perfect 3-0 ATS. Turnovers usually play a big role when 2 teams with very close talent face each other. That little intangible that sometimes gets overlooked shows Jacksonville State being very opportunistic getting 21 takeaways this season compared to just 9 for New Mexico State. I believe this will be a lower scoring game than these teams are used to with the Gamecocks prevailing in their finale. Let's get ready to jet down to Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces to play 8 Stars on the JACKSONVILLE STATE JAGUARS on the ML -140 as my Unofficial Bowler Play/Regular Season Game of the Year! QUICK NOTES: It was an exchangeable Saturday as it was a tough one to lose on the ML on the Gamecocks after their defense was brilliant with 4 takeaways. However, private players were treated to an excellent 4-team parlay that took home the money with Jacksonville State + 4 1/2 with 3 other ML's. Here's my never based on record or polls personal Top 10 Rankings as we head into Championship Weekend: 1) Georgia Bulldogs 2) Michigan Wolverines 3) Washington Huskies 4) Oregon Ducks 5) Texas Longhorns 6) Alabama Crimson Tide 7) Ohio State Buckeyes 8) Florida State Seminoles 9) Louisville Cardinals 10) Missouri Tigers Let's buckle up as we get set for another looooooong bowl season! Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 13-4 for 76% +3,110 Net Units of Profit
 


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