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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 12 Analysis/Review

Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 12 Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Nov 21, 2022
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Saturday, November 19, 2022 Navy vs. Central Florida (NCAAF) - 11:00 AM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +16/-110 Navy Rating: 8* Mike's Ground N' Pounder Game Of The Week (WIN) The 3-7 SU Midshipmen have been notorious for giving UCF problems in past meetings (Navy won 34-30 last season in MD & UCF won 35-24 in 18' @ this venue). Entering the week, HC Gus Malzahn (2nd season here after 8 years @ Auburn) had his squad in a 3-way tie for 1st @ 5-1 with Tulane & Cincinnati for bragging rights in the American Athletic Conference. Both of these teams love to grind it out with Navy ranking 7th in the country (244 YPG) & Central Florida posting up @ 5th (251 YPG). While 8-2 SU UCF holds the passing edge on offense, both squads are pretty close in total defense with the Knights holding a 46th to 49th edge. If Central Florida gets the "W" here then again @ South Florida on Black Friday, they control their own destiny with a home game in the AAC Championship game. This would be sweet since the Knights are stepping up to the Big 12 Conference after this season. My bottom line looks into the numbers revealing some positive results. The Knights are not only 2-8 versus the number as a conference home favorite of 13 or more they've gone a very weak 3-7 ATS in Game 11's. Navy is has a super-solid 5-1 spread mark coming off of 2 SU losses while also going a lights-out 9-1 ATS when installed as conference pups of 14or higher. Here's where we're going. In these type of Ground Control Major Tom-type games, getting over the 3-TD mark has been the key area. Let's roll to Bounce House Stadium in Orlando to play the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (buying to + 21 1/2) as my 8 Star Ground N' Pounder Game Of The Week. Houston vs. East Carolina (NCAAF) - 2:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -225 East Carolina Rating: 8* Mike's AAC Game Of The Week (LOSS) Both teams come in with 6-4 SU records. However, I like the angle of the East Carolina seniors having triple revenge in their final home game before their assigned bowl game. What has caught my ear here is the Cougars defense that's just given up 36 points to a Temple squad that's ranked 116th in total offense in the country. The week before that they got slaughtered by giving up 11 TD's in a 77-63 defeat @ the hands of the 6-4 SU SMU Mustangs. The groundwork has been laid out for EC's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick who came over with HC Mike Houston in 18' but not before both w on the FCS National Championship in 16' @ James Madison. The Pirates should have an edge after outgaining Cincinnati 454 to 310 on the road despite losing 27-25 last week. There's disparaging results in YPP (Yards Per Point) with ECU holding a 29th ranking to Houston's distant 69th. It's tough to side with a Dana Holgorsen squad that's just not disciplined. The Pirates have a dependable & versatile QB Holton Ahlers back for a 5th season. Ahlers actually ran the ball back in 18' when now in the NFL Gardner Minshew landed @ ECU after transferring from Washington State. My bottom line says we have to side with the Purple & Gold knowing that Houston not only 6-13 SU versus teams playing their last home game but also a no-show-at-the-window 1-11 SU if that LHG opponent has a .500 or better record. Are you ready? I'm ready to fly down to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, NC to play the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES on the ML as my 8 Star AAC Game Of The Week! NC State vs. Louisville (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -180 Louisville Rating: 8* Mike's ACC Momentum Grabber (WIN) Even though Louisville's 4-game winning streak came to an end @ Clemson (31-16) last week, they still rate the nod versus North Carolina State who've struggled on the ACC road this season (lost @ Clemson 3-20 & @ Syracuse 24-9). Their lone road win came in their season opener when they edged East Carolina 21-20. HC Scott Satterfield's (in his 4th season after coming over from Appalachian State) club comes in with revenge for a 28-13 setback @ Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh. Situationally, the 6-4 Cardinals catch the 7-3 Wolfpack who'll be on a short week with their rivalry with North Carolina set for Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill Friday night. My bottom line points directly @ NC State's Freshman QB MJ Morris who will have growing pains on the road that should force him into turnovers. My bottom line says Louisville rates the edge @ QB whether its Malik Cunningham (listed as day to day) or Brock Domann. This series has been dominated by the home team whose won SU & covered 4 out of the last 5. You have to rate the Cardinals having the better "O since they chime in @ 45th in total offense compared to NC State's 96th with a a backup. The home squad should control the line of scrimmage with the Ville' holding a 222 to 87 rushing edge & a 128 to 144 rushing defense advantage. It's Louisville's LHG of the season & the partisan crowd won't be disappointed. Let's high-stomp it quick down to Cardinal Stadium in Kentucky to play LOUISVILLE CARDINALS on the ML as my 8 Star ACC Momentum Grabber! Arkansas State vs. Texas State (NCAAF) - 5:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -230 Texas State Rating: 8* Mike's Saturday Big Belter Play (WIN) Here's a battle between 2 (2-7) teams with HC Jake Spavital's (4th season after being OC @ West Virginia) Bobcats coming in with a 3-1 SU record in San Marcos. Both clubs have identical 3-7 overall & 1-5 in the Sun Belt Conference West standings. Yes, Texas State is far from the offensive juggernauts of old. However, it's tougher backing a Red Wolves' squad (114th ranked in total offense) that were outgained by 200 yards by Massachusetts (who gained 475 yards) last week. In fact, they've lost ITS (In The Stats) their past 5 games by an average of 211 YPG. The Bobcats did put in a solid effort @ this venue earlier when it shocked Appalachian State 36-24 as 19-point home dogs last month. They take on an Arkansas State club that's a perfect 0-5 SU on the road under HC Butch Jones (now 5-17 SU in his 2nd season since his prior gig @ Tennessee). This series does show 2 nail-biting victories by Texas State (24-22 & 47-45) the past 2 years. I'll be looking for that mastery (or mystery) to continue as we invade Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos to play the TEXAS STATE BOBCATS on the ML as my 8 Star Saturday Big Belter Play! Virginia Tech vs. Liberty (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -10/-110 Liberty Rating: 8* Mike's 2nd Sleeper Pick Of The Week (LOSS) After a 2-1 start, the Gobblers have now lost 7 straight ACC contests in a row heading into this meeting with an independent team, Liberty. 1st-year HC Brent Pry (was DC @ Penn State the last 6 years) has his hands full with just 4 offensive starters back from last year's 6-7 team that lost to Maryland 54-10 in the Pinstripe Bowl. They'll be a work in progress with Pry bringing over Tyler Bowen (Co-OC @ Penn State in 20') & DC Chris Marve (played under Pry when he was a DC @ Vanderbilt before the PSU job) to establish roots. The Hokies are leaking oil on the offensive end (3 TD's the past 3 games) & should have trouble controlling the line of scrimmage with HC Hugh Freeze's Flames carrying a 80-yard edge in rushing offense (Virginia Tech ranks 120th in total offense/Liberty 46th) & a 46-yard edge in rushing defense. This game is a bigger deal to the Flames as Freeze will be using this as a recruiting tool over intrastate Virginia Tech. The good news is Va. Tech (with arguably the worst team in 3 decades) has already lost to a Group of 5 team - Old Dominion & are finally feeling the recruitment fallout after long-time HC Frank Beamer who retired in 15' before the Justin Fuente era. It's been a struggle for VT since Marshall transfer Grant Wells (9/9 TD/INT ratio) came on as QB. My bottom line says I'm expecting 5'8" speedster RB Shedro Louis back in the lineup so the home team should get some offensive output to push their record to 9-2 SU after getting upset by Connecticut (blew 2-4th quarter leads) 36-33 last week. In the numbers point toward HC Freeze being an absurd 26-1 SU as a favorite versus under .333 FBS opponents overall but a more importantly 12-0 SU & 11-1 spreadwise if also @ home. We're going to Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, VA to play the LIBERTY FLAMES (buying to - 2 1/2) plus play in teasers as well as my 8 Star 2nd Sleeper Pick Of The Week! San Jose State vs. Utah State (NCAAF) - 9:45 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -1/-110 Utah State Rating: 8* Mike's Mountain West Middle Of The Road Play (WIN) San Jose State comes in with bowl eligible status @ 6-3 facing a 5-5 & looking for bowl status Utah State team that's already knocked off 7-3 Air Force 34-27 @ this venue last month. The weather intangible plays into the hands of the Aggies since Little Sparty comes from cozy California to play in the frigid temperatures & high altitude of Logan. 2nd-year HC Blake Anderson is a solid 16-8 SU in his short tenure after coming over from 7 years @ Arkansas State. There's more than a few in the numbers that catch my eye here. There's no denying the mastery by Utah State in this series which sits @ 9 consecutive SU victories. This is San Jose State's 10th game of the season. The past 8 Game 10's have produced 8 SU losses for the Spartans. My bottom line says the Aggies know this is the game they want since their chances are slim getting their 6th victory & bowl eligible status next week @ Albertsons Stadium on the blue turf of Boise State. In 8 career home finales, HC Anderson turns in a take-me-to-the-window 6-2 SU & ATS record. I love the rushing YPG edge enjoyed by USU who hold a big 163 to 65 edge. Let's shoot up to high altitude of Logan to play the UTAH STATE AGGIES (buying to a key + 3 1/2) as my 8 Star Mountain West Middle Of The Road Play! Washington State vs. Arizona (NCAAF) - 2:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +4/-110 Arizona Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Sleeper Pick Of The Week (LOSS) Hey, UCLA slept on this team last week. How did they go to the Rose Bowl & pull a 34-28 upset as 20-point dogs? They did it with a red-hot QB in Jayden De Laura who by the way came over the transfer portal from yours truly Washington State. It was a big advantage @ YCLA for the Wildcats as their current DC Johnny Nansen spent the last years as the Bruins' DL coach. Zona' HC Jedd Fisch (in his 2nd year who was interim HC @ UCLA for 2 games in 17') may have gone a no-show 1-11 SU in his inaugural season, but he's 2 more home wins away from bowl eligibility @ 4-6 SU. De Laura just proved he can hang with the elite of the conference throwing for 315 yards & responsible for 3 TD's. He's developed nicely under 2nd-year OC Brennan Carroll (who came over after 6 seasons as O-Line Coach Run Game Coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks under his father Pete) The Arizona "D" goes up against the 84th-ranked offense of the Cougars (just 4 starters back from last year's 7-6 squad that lost to Central Michigan 24-21 in the Sun Bowl) after just taking on UCLA's who were ranked 7th (total offense). Even though they hold a close edge in rushing, the Cats' hold a 324-231 large margin in passing yardage as well as in total offense ranking 21st in the nation. This game is a clear revenge game as Washington State pummeled this team 44-18 last season @ Gesa Field in Pullman. 2nd-year HC Jake Dickert's Cougs are fat & happy since becoming bowl eligible after a 28-18 home win over Arizona State last week AND have intra-state rival Washington on deck in their regular season finale. I'm not buying into the "Win the Day for the Crimson & Gray" fight song today as the team from the Grand Canyon State is where we'll go. The line value is there since Wazzou' comes in 7-3 ATS. Let's jaunt down to the desert inside Arizona Stadium in Tucson to play the ARIZONA WILDCATS (buying to + 7 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML as my 9 Star Sleeper Pick Of The Week! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 29-19 for a steady 60%!

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