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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 12 Analysis/Review & Notes

Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 12 Analysis/Review & Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Nov 21, 2023
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Saturday, November 18, 2023 Louisiana Tech vs. Jacksonville State (NCAAF) - 2:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -9.5/-110 Jacksonville State Rating: 6* Mike's Under The Radar Play of the Week (WIN) Has ANYONE given the Jacksonville State "predicted to finish last" Gamecocks any credit for reaching bowl eligibility after 10 games? I certainly will as well-traveled HC Rich Rodriguez (began @ Div. II Salem College in 86' & is 16-5 SU overall in his 2nd year here) has his team just 1 loss behind Conference USA front-runner Liberty. Yes, this is ALSO the same team (2 weeks ago) that went down to the SEC South Carolina Gamecocks' Williams-Brice Stadium & were on a game-winning drive @ the end before a pick-6 turned things around for a 38-28 SC win. On the flip side, I question the focus of 2-year HC Sonny "Crumb Bum" Crumbie (6-17 SU overall here & 3-8 this season). This ex-Texas Tech QB looks way too distracted during the week after he was seen verbally fighting with a Bulldogs' beat reporter (Ben Carlisle) before banning him from the team. After losing to then 1-8 the Sam Houston Bearkats 42-27 as 7 1/2-point home favorites last week, doesn't he think that leaves the door wide open to some warranted criticism? I mean 4-year Boise State Broncos' retread & 5th-year junior QB Hank Bachmeier hasn't actually dazzled the local media with a ho-hum 9/4 TD/INT ratio this season. Louisiana Tech is clearly riding on fumes after losing 5 straight with a Scott Power 4-3 defensive scheme yielding 98 points over the past 2 weeks. The Tech tech's show they have a horrible 8-18 record spreadwise (0-5 SU L5) in season finales & that number drops considerably to 3-12 ATS if they're away from Joe Ailett Stadium in Ruston. These have met 1 time in their history but that was WAY back in 1939 when the Bulldogs won 39-0. My bottom line says Rodriguez runs good running schemes (218 YPG) that utilizes 2 fresh QB's (Zion Webb/5.4 YPR & Logan Smothers, a better passer) as well as 2 excellent RB's in Malik Jackson (5'4 YPR) & Anwar Lewis (4.2 YPR) who've all combined for 24 rushing TD's. Jax. St.'s big play receiver is Perry Carter whose snagging receptions @ a 18.3 YPC clip. The Gamecocks should thrive situationally with 2 weeks to prepare for this game on their Senior Day where they've won 10 out of their last 11 SU. While both teams have similar scoring offenses, Jacksonville State ranks 34th in scoring "D" with 12 INT's while the Bulldogs (just 4 starters back this year) rank a way-back 111th in scoring with just 6 picks this season. With the Gamecocks holding a 8-2 to 4-7 spreadwise advantage, here's where we'll play this. We're jettin' to Burgess-Snow Field @ JSU Stadium in Alabama to play the JACKSONVILLE STATE GAMECOCKS (buying to -2 1/2 @ -360) for 6 Stars as my Under The Radar Play of the Week! NOTES: Sifting through the muck of a difficult CFB November, I've been spot on the past few weeks as San Jose State delivered a 42-17 win & Jacksonville State cruised 56-17. That made it 11 out of the last 12 in CFB. Here's my Top 10 FBS Power Rankings going into this weekend: 1) Georgia Bulldogs 2) Ohio State Buckeyes 3) Michigan Wolverines 4) Washington Huskies 5) Oregon Ducks 6) Florida State Seminoles 7) Texas Longhorns 8) Alabama Crimson Tide 9) Missouri Tigers 10) Louisville Cardinals Let's remember, this is the LAST season to put up with 4 teams making the College Football Playoff. Next season will see an expansion to 12 teams where the top 4 get a bye the 1st round. First Round games pit #12 @ #5, #11 @ #6, #10 @ #7 & #9 @ #8. Stay tuned this weekend for a possible CFB 10 Star Regular Season Game of the Year! Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 13-3 for 81% & an excellent +4,230 NET UNITS of PROFIT
 


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