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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 11 Analysis/Review/Notes

Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 11 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Nov 14, 2022
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Saturday, November 12, 2022 Liberty vs. Connecticut (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +14/-110 Connecticut Rating: 9* Mike's 9 Star Independent Point Spread Survivor (WIN + LARGE ML DOG) These 2 represent a minority of the 7 surviving independent (non-conference affiliated) teams left in the FBS. Its HC Hugh Freeze's 8-1 Liberty team riding a 6-game win streak off nothing bigger than their 21-19 upset of Arkansas in Fayetteville as 15-point dogs taking on 5-5 SU Connecticut under 1st-year HC Jim Mora (was a proven winning coach on 2 levels with NFL's Atlanta Falcons & the FBS's UCLA Bruins of the PAC-12). Mora came on as an assistant coach last season (for final 4 games) so he can recruit & its paid dividends as the Huskies had a collective 4-32 SU record their last 3 seasons (they did not play in 20'). The UConn "D" with DC Lou Spanos (was DC & interim HC here & was DC under Mora @ UCLA) face Flames' QB Johnathan Bennett whose turned in a pedestrian 11/10 TD/INT ratio heading in. The Huskies have been slighted by oddsmakers of late as they're riding a 6-game ATS streak which aids our cause. My bottom line stresses that fat & happy Liberty has already struggled with Akron (won 21-12) & Gardner-Webb (won 21-20) plus come in with an offense that's turned it over 6 times the past 3 games. There's also a possibility that weather could play a factor in this game. But with Flames' RB Dae Dae Hunter hobbled, an upset isn't out of the question here! Let's go to Pratt & Whitney Stadium @ Rentschler Field in Storrs to play my 9 Star Independent Point Spread Survivor on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (buying to + 14 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML! James Madison vs. Old Dominion (NCAAF) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +7.5/-110 Old Dominion Rating: 8* Mike's Saturday Big Belter Play (LOSS) Congrats to HC Curt Cignetti for getting this team to 5-3 SU in their inaugural season in the FBS' Sun Belt Conference. They now take on (for the 3rd time but 1st FBS meeting) 3-6 SU Old Dominion after a quick jaunt down I-64 from Harrisonburg toward Virginia Beach. For this one, JMU QB Todd Centeio should return (after being injured) again but looked far from sharp in the Dukes' 34-10 loss @ Louisville last Saturday (JMU averaged 11 PPG over their last 2). DC Blake Seiler should adjust accordingly in forcing them into being one-dimensional through the air by loading the box against their strong suit. It seems like the strength of schedule of the SBC has also slowed down the Dukes. Remember, they only returned 9 of 22 starters on both sides of the ball. That's a BIG contrast since OD's HC Ricky Rahne (previous OC @ Penn State) returns 10 on offense & 8 on defense. My bottom line stresses these 2 met twice with both outcomes within 10 points. I don't see much separating them here @ this later stage of the season. This is ODU's final home game so I expect their "A" game before they hit travel to both 5-4 SU Appalachian State & 7-2 SU South Alabama to end their regular season. ODU have come back nicely to go 7-0 spreadwise after they've been beaten by double-digits @ home (lost to Marshall 12-0). Here's where we'll play this. I'm confident going to S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk to play the OLD DOMINION MONARCHS (buying to + 10 1/2) as my 8 Star Saturday Big Belter Play! Purdue vs. Illinois (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +6.5/-110 Purdue Rating: 9* Mike's 9 Star Big Ten Game Of The Week (WIN + LARGE ML DOG) Sometimes you have to switch gears when talking about a team with the #1 total & scoring defense like Illinois. I fell into the trap last week but will be once bitten, twice shy here! A win by the 5-4 overall & 3-3 in the Big Ten West Division Purdue squad ties the Fighting Illini for 1st place in the division. The Big 10 Championship which will be the Ohio State/Michigan winner versus (7-2 overall, 4-2 in league) Illinois but quite possibly be either Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin or Iowa (all 3-3). Its advantage Boilers as we have a Purdue offense (44th in total offense) comparing to Illinois' 90th ranked scoring offense. In addition, HC Jeff Brohm has had the Orange & Blue's number the past 2 seasons winning 13-9 last season @ Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette as well as 31-24 the last time out @ this venue. With Illinois having a gigantic game with Michigan immediately on deck, let's go once again to Memorial Stadium in Urbana-Champaign but this time to play the visiting PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (buying to + 7 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML as my 9 Star Big Ten Game Of The Week! Notre Dame vs. Navy (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +15.5/-110 Navy Rating: 9* 9 Star CFB Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) Sure, Jon Q. Public is all over Notre Dame based on their 35-14 pounding of previously unbeaten Clemson ( as 3 1/2-point dogs) AND their last 2 lopsided wins over the Midshipmen by 34-6 & 52-20 counts. Let's examine the highs & the lows to get the proper perspective. The Fighting Irish have been on a literal 2-game ATS roller coaster since Week 2. They're currently off 2 point spread covers over Syracuse & Clemson. With the Golden Domers 6-3 SU thus far, 3 of those wins (3-0 overall) have been against the Atlantic Coast Conference against North Carolina & the previous 2 mentioned. Their non-ACC record this season sits @ a very-pedestrian 3-3 which include 1-score wins over California & BYU as well as losses to Marshall & Stanford. My bottom line says it key that Navy kept QB Tai Lavatai rested last week in a 20-10 loss @ Cincinnati where they still out-rushed the Bearcats 176-55 in covering as a 19-point dog. They need fresh legs to run the option here knowing they can earn a bowl bid if they run the table. Now fat & happy plus Bowl-eligible ND have their sights set on 93rd meeting with fierce rival USC (first played them in 1926) where the winner gets to take home the Jeweled Shillelagh which ND holds for their 31-16 win in South Bend last season. I'll gladly go to M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore to play the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (buying to a key + 17 1/2) as my 9 Star CFB Public Missed Perception Play! TCU vs. Texas (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7.5/-105 Texas Rating: 8* Mike's Big 12 Showdown Saturday Play (LOSS/3-0 @ 1/2-time) This prime-timer will certainly dazzle us with the red-hot QB of T.C.U. Max Duggan (24/2 TD/INT ratio) & RB Kendre Miller (1,009 yards on the ground, 12 TD's, 79 receiving yards, 0 TD's) paired up against the Hook'em Horns talents of RB Bijan Robinson (1,129 rushing yards, 12 TD's, 314 receiving yards, 2 TD's) & QB Quinn Ewers (13/5 TD/INT ratio). The Horned Frogs own a clear 3-games better SU record than the Longhorns. However, Texas has faced the 11th toughest schedule thus far compared to T.C.U. who chimes in @ 40th. I feel that the Longhorns should get it done out of the gate early here. However, I question the effectiveness of HC Steve Sarkisian's halftime adjustments the past 3 games where UT has been outscored 48-16. These 2 played a DANDY @ Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth early in the year last season with Texas hanging on for a 32-27 road victory. There's a lot of pressure on 1st-year HC Sonny Dykes' bunch with a chance to grab a stronghold as one of teams in the 4-team College Football Playoff which is about a month away. My bottom line says the Horns' have been dependable out of the gate. Thus, we're going to make a ML wager on the first half only. We're slipping down to Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin to play the ML on the TEXAS LONGHORNS-FIRST HALF ONLY as my 8 Star Big 12 Showdown Saturday Play! Washington vs. Oregon (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +12/-105 Washington Rating: 10* Mike's West Coast Perfect Storm Play (WIN + LARGE ML DOG) This should be an excellent offensive barrage once it gets going (weather shouldn't interfere) with the upstart 7-2 SU Washington squad of 1st-year HC Kalen DeBoer (went 67-3 @ NAIA Sioux Falls before going 12-6 @ Fresno State L2Y) taking on Dan Lanning (DC @ Georgia L3Y) & his Quack Attack of Oregon. I love the fact that DeBoer brought over Ryan Grubb who was OC for him both @ Fresno State & Sioux Falls. It's paid off thus far with the Huskies ranking 10th in total offense (Oregon 3rd), #1 in the land in passing offense @ 370 YPG & has gone 8-1 ITS (In The Stats) winning games by an average of +139 YPG. QB Michael Penix, Jr. leads the FBS in passing yards with 3,232 yards. Penix matches up nicely going up against a Ducks' passing defense ranked a distant 117th (out of 131) in the FBS. The Husky' "D" does have a wider gap on the defensive side over the Green N' Gold ranking 41st compared to their 70th. This game represents a great situational edge for Washington since Oregon sees a big same-season double revenger ahead. They play Utah in Eugene who embarrassed them twice LY when they lost 38-7 in regular season Game 11 & 38-10 in the Pac-12 Championship @ allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. My bottom line gets down to business where the perfect storm is a brewing. This game matches up a team on a 0-5 ATS slide (Wash.) versus a 5-0 spread run team (Oregon). The past 24 seasons has produced 7 such matchups. The underdog in those not only has gone a very profitable 5-2 SU but an untamed 7-0 against the number. From watching film, Co-DC's William Inge & Chuck Morrell (both came over from Fresno State with DeBoer) will be assigning spies keying on talented QB Bo Nix whose scampers have so far produced 457 rushing yards & 13 TD's (22/5 TD/INT ratio). Washington has lost 3 in a row SU in this series by 3,4 & 10-point margins. The Ducks have gone a close-to-no-show @ the window 1-4 ATS versus PAC-12 foes seeking triple revenge exact. Since Oregon is off a 49-10 clobbering of Colorado & being a profitable 7-2 ATS thus far, the oddsmakers have made this line over-priced to compensate. We're ready to go up to the upper west coast's Autzen Stadium in Eugene for this 114th meeting to take the WASHINGTON HUSKIES (buying to a key + 14 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML too as my 10 Star West Coast Perfect Storm Play! North Carolina vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -175 Wake Forest Rating: 8* Mike's Saturday Night Mushes' Nightmare (LOSS) There's a few things bugging me about how the public perceives these Demon Deacons. Jon Q. Public says defenses must have figured out QB Sam Hartman whose thrown 3 INT's in both of his last 2 games in road losses to Louisville 48-21 & North Carolina State 30-21. Yeah, that's true but their 13th-ranked passing offense gets to go up against Assistant HC For The Defense Gene Chizik's (yep, same guy who coached Auburn to a 2010 Ntl. Championship) defense that ranks a close-to-worst 122nd in the FBS. Ironically, Chizik was hired on to fix a defense that gave up 418 YPG last season. The facts are its gotten worse as they're being rung up now for a whopping 458 YPG heading in. Hey, there's no doubt Tar Heels' QB Derek Maye is a sensation with 2,964 passing yards & a nifty 31/3 TD/INT ratio to boot. However, there's some other key factors to take into account. My bottom line says we need to crunch some numbers in a hurry. The road weary theory is going to take root soon with UNC now in their 3rd set of back-to-back road games. The home team in this series has won 7 straight games SU. When the Deacs are installed as ACC home chalk of 6 points or fewer, they've responded in a BIG way going a take-me-to-the-window 9-1 ATS. UNC has been more than lucky coming from behind from 18 & 21-point deficits in their last 2 meetings in this series (both in Chapel Hill). They've won 5 straight of those closely-contested type games this season by beating Appalachian State 63-61, Georgia State 35-28, Miami, Fla. 27-24, Duke 38-35 & last week versus Virginia 31-28. I'm not expecting another high-octane slugfest that's already produced 225 points combined in the last 2 meetings. However, a final in the 80-90 point range seems better suited for this prognosticator. Let's get pumped as we go (for this 110th series meeting) to Truist Field in Winston-Salem to play the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS as my 8 Star Saturday Night Mushes' Nightmare! Friday, November 11, 2022 East Carolina vs. Cincinnati (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +5/-110 East Carolina Rating: 9* Mike's Friday Thunderstruck Play (WIN) This WILL be the week when the weird & unexplainable CFB games show up more than expected. Here's one of those games. The Bearcats have beaten the Pirated soundly the last 2 seasons by a 55-17 score & a more-recent count of 35-17. HC Mike Houston (4th season) has had this game circled & clearly sees Cincinnati's rushing defense has shown holes as they've been out-rushed 434 to 90 in their past 2 games. My bottom line says East Carolina 6'4" QB Holton Ahlers is solid @ his position with a 70.1 % completion rate, an 18/5 TD/INT ratio with 5 rushing TD's. ECU under Houston is 7-2 ITS & 10-4 ATS as a road dog. The (3-2 in league) Purple & Gold trails Cincinnati & UCF (who they beat earlier 34-13) by just 1 game in the AAC East Division & are very capable of pulling the upset. The oddsmakers still seem to be over-generous with HC Luke Fickell & his Bearcats the past 5 as witnessed by their 0-4-1 spread mark. Let's gladly go to Nippert Stadium in Ohio to play the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES (buying to + 7 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML as my 9 Star Friday Thunderstruck Play! NOTES: It was an excellent weekend @ 5-3 because it was with 3 large ML dog wins as Connecticut & Washington won outright as 2 TD underdogs & Purdue won as a TD underdog. I still can't figure how Texas HC couldn't get the offensive guru out in the first half to score a point? We had a push until the last minute when TCU made a FG. Speaking of halves, we should have pulled the trigger on Navy 2nd half based on the Irish letting off the gas with a big lead. Let's put that in the hopper for when it presents itself again. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 25-16 for a sizzling 61% (off 3 Large ML Dogs This Week)
 


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