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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 1 Bowl Season Analysis/Review

Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 1 Bowl Season Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Dec 25, 2022
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Saturday, December 24, 2022 Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread +7/-110 Middle Tennessee State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Late Steamer (WIN) When it comes down to bowl coaching experience, I believe in Middle Tennessee State's Rick Stockstill over San Diego State's Brady Hoke. This is especially true when Hoke's team is the favorite. Stockstill's squad responds well in the underdog role away from home as witnessed by winning outright 45-31 as 25 1/2-point underdogs to Miami (Fla) & by a 34-19 score as 13-point dogs to Colorado State. When comparing QB's, I also give the nod to the Blue Raiders' Chase Cunningham (2,920 passing yards, 67.4% completion rate & a 19/9 TD/INT ratio) over the Aztecs' QB Jalen Mayden (1,721 passing yards, 62.9% completion rate & a 10/7 TD/INT ratio). In fact, San Diego State ranks a distant 119th in offensive passing yards (171 YPG). My bottom line says Stockstill's club has been here before as they beat Toledo outright 31-24 as 10 1/2-poit dogs in last year's Bahamas Bowl. In the recent past, the dog has flourished both in San Diego State games (16-7 ATS) & in Middle Tennessee State games (5-0 spreadwise). Let's go to the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu for the Hawaii Bowl to play the MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE BLUE RAIDERS (buying to a key + 10 1/2) as my 8 Star CFB Late Steamer! Friday, December 23,2022 Wake Forest vs. Missouri (NCAAF) - 6:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2.5/-110 Missouri Rating: 8* Mike's Bowl Sleeper Pick (LOSS) Don't snooze on the Tigers just because a few pieces have opted out for this game. Missouri isn't the cakewalk that Wake Forest got last year in the Gator Bowl when they thwarted Rutgers 38-10 as 17-point favorites. Last season was when HC Dave Clawson (9th season) flourished @ 11-3 SU & were crowned ACC Atlantic Division champions (over perennial winner Clemson) but lost to Pitt 45-21 in the ACC Championship. Coming into this game, there have been a few transfers (both offensively & defensively) that disrupt their chemistry enough to make WF iffy @ best to win this. It'll be tough for the team to play hard knowing key cog & QB Sam Hartman will probably not return next season. Another major whole that appears on the Demon Deacons' side has to be their secondary which ranks a distant 117th in the nation (272.8 YPG). My bottom line says the Mizzou' defense were far from slouches in the prestigious SEC finishing 4th in total "D" (340 YPG) plus 28th in the country in that category & allowed just 15 TD passes all season. Even though they won't be the same with a few key sack guys opting out, ex-LSU LB Coach & now Tigers' DC Blake Baker had enough time to employ schemes to hold Hartman & Co. @ bay. Remember, Missouri gave Georgia a game while WF gave up over 30 points their last 5 games of the season. The Tigers are playing for a winning season (6-6 SU) while the Demon Deacons have that assured @ 7-5. It's very hard to convince me that Wake Forest is excited to be in Florida today. While tons of trends are pointing directly toward Wake Forest, this Clawson squad were still just 3-5 SU versus fellow 2022 bowl teams before the opt-outs. Let's go to natural grass of Raymond James Stadium in Tampa for the Gasparilla Bowl to play the MISSOURI TIGERS (buying to +7 1/2) forcing a double-digit win to lose as my 8 Star Bowl Sleeper Pick! Tuesday, December 20, 2022 Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +4/-110 Eastern Michigan Rating: 8* Mike's Sharper Side Bowler (WIN) Yes, there is bowl history between these 2 as EMU's only bowl win in their history occurred back in the 1987 California Bowl by a 30-27 over these same Spartans. I feel Eagles' HC Chris Creighton has 3 more valuable years of experience in bowls over 7-4 SU SJ State's Brent Brennan, has been here before & is SUPER-HUNGRY to erase past defeats to conclude the season. Going down the stretch, 8-4 SU Eastern Michigan (lost 3 of those by a combined 10 points) has clearly faced the tougher competition (holding an 18th compared to 73rd) scheduling edge & is seasoned for this matchup. Yes, Spartans' QB Chevan Cordeiro (2,885 passing yards & a 20/4 TD/INT ratio) holds the taller wideouts & has impressive numbers. However, Cordeiro has been having O-Line issues of late & has been sacked 40 times. When forced to run, they could only muster 3.2 YPC (93 yards per game) remains a flaw. This team has been habitually over-valued by the oddsmakers as they've dropped 6 straight coming into this contest versus the number. They'll face a rare EMU squad that's claimed the Michigan MAC Trophy for defeating rivals Western & Central Michigan during the regular season. They've been successful with impact players who can take over a game like DE Jose Ramirez (Mid-American Conference Defensive MVP who registered a school-record 12 sacks), senior RB Samson Evans (1,084 rushing yards & 13 TD's & their less-flashy QB Taylor Powell whose thrown 21 TD passes. My bottom line says it's hard to ignore the Eagles 35-10-1 spread mark when taking the points over the longer haul as well as being # 3 in the nation in cashing in TD's (Red Zone Offense). That bowl game in 87' was the ONLY bowl for EMU from 76' thru 15'! Since that time, the culture has changed dramatically as they've gone to 5 in the last 7 seasons. Remember, these same Eagles are very familiar with Tuesday games since the MAC features several throughout the regular season for more national exposure. Let's go to Albertsons Stadium on the blue turf in Boise to play the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my 8 Star Sharper Side Bowler! Monday, December 19, 2022 Connecticut vs. Marshall (NCAAF) - 2:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -12/-110 Marshall Rating: 9* Mike's 9 Star CFB 1st Bowl Game Of The Season (WIN) This is a matchup that actually happened back in the St. Petersburg Bowl in 2015 when Marshall of HC John Holliday handled Bob Diaco's Connecticut club 16-10 as 4 1/2-point favorites. This time around its HC Jim Mora (1st season) leading the Huskies to a 6-6 SU after they went 4-32 SU over the past 3 full seasons. The biggest highlight along the way has to be their 36-33 upset of #19 Liberty 2 games ago. They did beat Fresno State earlier but I can't give that win too much weight since the Bulldogs made the cross-country trip with a "C" squad. They have high hopes here with freshman RB Victor Rosa (111 yards rushing versus Army in their last game) who has 9 TD's & 561 yards on 124 carries. However, they still remain offensively challenged ranking 127th in passing (107 YPG) & 125th (302 YPG) in total offense. On the flip side of the coin, HC Charles Huff (former Asst. HC/RB coach @ Alabama) is in his 2nd season & has led the Thundering Herd to a 15-10 SU record during his short tenure. The best player on the field has to be Florida State transfer & RB Khalan Laborn (led the Sun Belt Conference in rushing) whose scored 16 TD's & put up 1,423 yards on 281 totes. With Rasheen Ali also back in the backfield, it gives QB Cam Fancher an added dimension versus UConn's inconsistent rushing defense (ranked 92nd & that was versus the #122nd-toughest schedule). My bottom line says I'm not buying the Herd's 0-3 SU in bowls since over the longer haul they've turned in a 12-4-1 SU & ATS mark since 98'. I'll be grabbing the team with the better "D" as Marshall's ranked 7th in scoring defense (16.2 PPG), 4th in pass completion percentage allowed (52.7%), 5th in rushing yards allowed (88.8 YPG), 2nd in yards per carry yielded (2.8 YPG) & 5th in interceptions per game (1.8). Let's get ready to bolt to Brooks Stadium in Conway, SC for the Myrtle Beach Bowl to play the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD (buying to - 6 1/2) as my 9 Star CFB 1st Bowl Game Of The Season! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Season Record: 41-22 for very not too shabby 65%-2nd In Winning Percentage Amongst All CFB Handicappers Bowl Record: 3-1 for 75%
 


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