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Home / Articles / MLB Betting Tips to Increase Your Winning Percentage

MLB Betting Tips to Increase Your Winning Percentage

America's Bookie

AmericasBookie Sportsbook/Casino and Horses.
By: America's Bookie     Date: Jun 21, 2022
Print Article   

 

Here are some MLB betting tips to help you win more bets.

Key Points

– Betting on baseball has so many opportunities to find wins.

– MLB bettors can use a number of strategies to increase their winning percentage.

MLB Betting Tips

With all of the baseball games available in a given season, MLB bettors are blessed with a multitude of options. It can seem overwhelming at times, but there are a number of tips that can be put to work to help increase one’s winning percentage.

Baseball is a bit different from other sports in that the majority of bettors tend to play the moneyline. Scoring is not as plentiful in baseball making it a moneyline sport, but bettors can play the run line - baseball’s version of the point spread. 

Bettors can wager on game totals and a wide range of team and player props as well. Whatever the bet, here are some MLB betting tips to increase your winning percentage.

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The Deal with Big Favorites

Big favorites, in this case, would be those of -150 or higher. Over the past 17 seasons, big favorites have won 63 percent of their games. You could simply bet on all big favorites and have a pretty strong winning percentage.

The problem is that because of the odds you will end up in the red. When your MLB picks lose on a big favorite, you lose big. And big favorites lose 27 percent of the time.

Bet Against the Public

The betting public loves favorites. They love star players and teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers. They often bet with too much emotion and that’s why sportsbooks are still in business.

The house wins much more often than the public. That’s why one betting tip is to consider betting against the public. This strategy can help you win betting on baseball.

In over 5,000 games since 2007, fading the public has had some success. Looking at games where underdogs got less than 40 percent of the moneyline bets, those underdogs won almost 44 percent of the time.

Now, that may not boost your winning percentage, but it will boost your bankroll. Because of all the plus-money victories, the wins in this case would lead to a profit. Maybe these tips won’t help your win percentage? Here’s help when finding the best sports handicapper.

Speaking of Underdogs - MLB Betting Tips

You can easily increase your winning percentage and your bankroll by focusing on MLB underdogs. Not all underdogs are created the same.

Bettors that consistently find solid plus-money underdogs do not need to win as much in order to produce a profit. Even so, there are some MLB underdogs that are better than others to focus on.

In a given season, MLB teams play the other teams in their division 19 times each. That leads to some familiarity. Pitchers and hitters face each other more often. That gives an edge to the underdog.

Divisional underdogs win at a higher pace than non-divisional underdogs. Bettors can also break down the divisional underdog even further. There is usually more value on a road divisional underdog because the public places too much emphasis on home field advantage. 

In games with a total of 8.5 or higher at baseball sportsbooks, there is even more value on a road divisional underdog. Oddsmakers expect more runs which means the dog is going to score. That adds value to the road divisional underdog. Through the first part of the 2022 MLB season, away dogs covered the run line over 58 percent of the time.

Weather & Totals

One of the biggest factors that will influence MLB game totals is the wind. For example, since 2005 in MLB games where the wind is blowing in from the outfield at 5 mph or higher the Under has hit at a 55.1 percent clip.

The wind takes fly balls that typically would go out of the stadium and turns them into long outs. The opposite happens with winds that blow to the outfield. A deep fly ball can be carried out of the stadium on a windy day. 

Since 2005, in MLB games where the wind was blowing at 8 mph or more from home plate to the outfield, the Over has cashed at a 52.9 percent clip. 

MLB Betting Tips - Manage Your Money

There may be no other tip that is more important to long-term betting success than managing your bankroll. Remember, it is a good idea to place bets equal to 1 to 5 percent of your bankroll. 

A 1 to 2 percent wager is conservative. A 4 to 5 percent wager is a bit more aggressive. Don’t chase your losses and make smart bets. Find the value - which may be on a road underdog or on a game total on a very windy day - and then place the bet. 

Keep the exotic bets to a minimum. Parlays have great odds for a reason. They are harder to win. If you do consider parlays, match bets that go together.


 

 
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