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Home / Articles / Jeff's MLB Player Prop Thursday Selection (Phillies vs. Braves)

Jeff's MLB Player Prop Thursday Selection (Phillies vs. Braves)

By: Jeff Hochman     Date: May 25, 2023
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Phillies vs. Braves MLB Player Prop Selection


Baseball fanatics and betting enthusiasts, prepare for an exciting showdown as the Atlanta Braves take on the Philadelphia Phillies. While there are plenty of intriguing storylines in this matchup, our focus today is on one of the game's brightest young stars, Ronald Acuna Jr., and whether he can surpass hits + runs and RBI (Over 1.5 -150).


Now, before you jump to conclusions, let's break down the data and see why Acuna Jr. is a solid pick going over 1.5 H+R+R at -150. The 25-year-old phenom has been lighting up the league with an impressive .330/.419/.576 slash line, 11 homers, 27 RBI, and 46 runs scored in just 49 games this season. What's even more remarkable is that he's been doing it all from the leadoff spot. The 3x All-star also has 20 stolen bases to go with a lofty .995 OPS.


Moreover, Acuna Jr.'s home and away splits this season reveal an interesting trend. He's averaging 1.08 hits + runs + RBI at home, while on the road, that number jumps to 1.92. With the Braves set to play at home, it's worth considering whether Acuna Jr. can flip the script and perform closer to his road numbers. Now, let's dive into the juicy matchup details that could make all the difference in this bet. Ronald Acuna Jr. is set to face off against Phillies' ace Aaron Nola, a pitcher he's historically had success against. In 36 career at-bats against Nola, Acuna Jr. boasts a .361 batting average with four home runs and nine RBI. Those numbers are nothing to scoff at and suggest that Acuna Jr. sees the ball really well out of Nola's hand.


However, it's essential to consider Acuna Jr.'s recent performance as well. Over the last 20 tilts, he's been averaging 1.6 hits + runs + RBI per game. In his last 10 games, he's bumped up that average to 1.7, and in his last five games, it has dipped slightly to 1.0. So, while he's trending down in the short term, it's crucial to remember that baseball is a game of ebbs and flows, and even the best hitters have their slumps. Ronald should be hungry at the plate after going 0-for-7 in his last two games combined.


It's also essential to recognize that Ronald Acuna Jr. is an incredibly talented and versatile player, one who can contribute in various ways on the field. As previosly mentioned, he's already 20-for-22 on the base paths this season, putting him on pace to shatter his previous career-high of 37 steals set in 2019. His ability to wreak havoc on the base paths only adds to his potential for going Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI, making Acuna Jr. an even more logical choice on his H+R+R prop.


Don't sleep on Ronald Acuna Jr. and his potential to put up big numbers in this upcoming matchup. Sometimes, you need to look beyond recent trends and trust the data, and in this case, Acuna Jr. is poised to go Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in Thursday's night game. My model has this line closer to -165.


My Selection: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-150) Hits + Runs + RBI


Twitter: @JHSPORTSLINE
 


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