Saratoga Race 13 | Travers Stakes | August 24 | 6:10 PM E


#1 Thorpeda Ana (3/1), trained by Kenny McPeek & ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr.


This 3-year-old filly by Fast Ana takes on the "boys" with a career record of six wins and one second-place finish in seven starts, earning $1,980,660. I get why her connections are taking this shot, but she's my first toss-out. Fast Ana has won four straight graded races, including three straight Grade 1's. She loves Saratoga, going 2-for-2 coming in her last two races. Her sire wasn't known as a route of ground-type horse. She looks great on paper, but this race is filled with many accomplished male horses. She owns the field's second-slowest late-pace speed figure (104). Toss!


#2 Sierra Leone (7/2), trained by Chad Brown & ridden by Flavien Prat


He is a major player in this race with a career record of three wins, three seconds, and one-third in seven-lifetime starts, earning a robust $2,218.000. Was a close second as the 4/5 favorite to Fierceness (one length) in losing the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga on June 27. Two starts back, Sierra Leone finished third, beaten by 1 ½ lengths to Dornoch after stumbling at the start in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. This 3-year-old colt by Gun Runner owns the second-fastest middle pace (102) and the fastest late pace (116.5) speed figure in this field. Trainer Chad Brown & jockey Flavien Prat team up to win 24% while finishing in the money 55% of the time. Win Contender!


#3 Unmatched Wisdom (8/1), trained by Chad Brown & ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.


He takes a significant step up in class to graded company after winning the Curlin Stakes (listed) by one length at Saratoga on July 19. A 3-year-old colt by Cario Prince has done nothing wrong going 3-for-3 with lifetime earnings of $178,750. Flavien Prat was aboard for all three victories, but there’s no way Prat was going to switch mounts after riding Sierra Leone in his last two races and is proven in Stakes company. His previous race speed figure (107) matches up with the rest of the field. The big question is whether he has enough foundation to win a Grade 1 race of this caliber in just his fourth career start. Cario Prince’s progeny have won 15% in all dirt routes over the last five years, tied for the lowest percentage in the field. Trainer Chad Brown & jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. win 22% and finish in the money 59% when working together. Live Longshot!


#4 Corporate Power (15/1), trained by Shug Mcgaughey lll & ridden by Javier Castellano


Last month, he was second to Unmatched Wisdom in the Curlin Stakes (listed). This 3-year-old colt by Curlin has two wins and two seconds from five career starts, earning $148,200. He finished second two starts back, beating Gould’s Gold by a nose in the Sir Barton Stakes (listed) at Saratoga on July 19. Has improved Equibase speed figures in his first five starts from a 72 to a 105. I am a little concerned he did not race as a two-year-old, and this will be race number six in 2024. Two of his starts this year were on an "off" track with a win and second-place finish. Toss!


#5 Batten Down (20/1), trained by Bill Mott & ridden by Junior Alvarado


Batten Down finished third, beaten 6 ¾ lengths in his last start, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga on July 27. This Tapit-bred horse has two wins, once second place, and two third place finishes from six career starts, earning $454,850. He owns the slowest overall speed rating (87) in this field. He is one of two horses in this field that has won at today’s 1 ¼ lengths distance. I respect Juddmonte Farms and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, but this horse is up against it in terms of class and speed ratings. This will be his seventh start in almost eight months. Toss!


#6 Honor Marie (20/1), trained by Whit Beckman & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione


The son of Honor Code was once considered a "wise guy" choice for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. It did not pan out as he finished eighth 13 ½ lengths behind winner Mystik Dan at odds of 15/1. Honor Marie has two wins and two second-place finishes from seven career starts, earning $626,175. He hasn't won since beating Real Men Violin in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last November. In his only start at Saratoga, Honor Marie was fourth, beaten 5 ½ lengths after getting bumped out of the gate, and made steady improvement throughout the race. He owns the slowest early (89.7), middle (91.8), and second slowest late-pace (102.5) speed ratings in this field. It's not exactly the profile you want to see in a Grade 1 race of this caliber. Blinkers go on today, and trainer Whit Beckman has never won with first-time blinkers or finished in the money. Toss!


#7 Dornoch (5/2), trained by Danny Gargan & ridden by Luis Saez


There is a lot to like here. Dornoch has five wins and two second-place finishes from nine career starts, earning $2,352,280. The son of Good Magic has won two straight Grade 1 races, including the Haskel Stakes at Saratoga on July 20. You could argue that his only bad race was in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished tenth, beaten by 18 lengths. That is a race where you need good luck and ability because of the massive field of horses. He was shuffled back and had to check hard before reaching the ¼ pole, which gave him no chance to compete. Dornoch loves Saratoga with one win and one second in two career starts. He’s the other horse with a win at this distance, the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga on June 8. Trainer Danny Gargan wins 29% with an ROI of +44% when his horses run with a 1-2 month break. The clocker reports are highly positive, with three visibly impressive works all at Saratoga. The One to Beat!


#8 Fierceness (3/1), trained by Todd Pletcher & ridden by John Velazquez


This 3-year colt by City of Light will look to win back-to-back races for the first time in his career. Fierceness has four wins and one third-place finish from seven-lifetime starts, earning $1,978,850. He won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes, defeating Sierra Leone by 1 length at Saratoga on July 27, and is 2-for-2 at this racetrack. His first win at Saratoga was his maiden-breaking victory at first asking on August 25, 2023. His only start at this distance was the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby when finishing 15th a whopping 24 ½ lengths behind winner Mystik Dan. You can draw a line through that race after hopping at the start. Todd Pletcher wins 5% with an ROI of -87% when his horses run in the second race after a 2-6 month layoff. We had him to win and place in the Jim Dandy, and that paid off. This won’t be easy, but he checks most of the boxes. He’s been training "lights out" and has been the post-time favorite in five of his seven starts. The outside post certainly helps his chances, but four other horses (#1, #3, #5, and #7) might be vying for the lead. Win Contender!


Jeff’s Selection: $1.00 Trifecta Box | #2 Sierra Leone | #3 Unmatched Wisdom | #7 Dornoch | #8 Fierceness | $24 ticket


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