Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes | Churchill Downs | Race 11 | June 28


1. First Mission (4-1) Jockey: Luis Saez Trainer: Brad Cox


First Mission has established himself as a consistent graded stakes performer, with notable victories in the (G3) Lexington Stakes as a two-year-old and recent success in the (G2) Oaklawn Handicap this past April. This 5-year-old by Street Sense has paired up two similar speed figures of 115 in winning the Oaklawn Handicap and 114 in finishing third by a neck in the (G3) Razorback back in February. He has six wins, including four graded stakes victories from twelve career starts. He lacks a signature Grade 1 victory on dirt, facing the strongest field of career. First Mission is an intriguing win contender with two wins and one second-place finish at today’s dirt distance of nine furlongs.


2. Mindframe (7-2) Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Todd Pletcher


Mindframe's recent Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes victory showcased his ability to excel at any distance. This 4-year old colt by Constitution has been first or second in all six career races which includes four wins and two graded stakes victories. He has shown the ability to win on wet or fast tracks and is 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs. Mindrame posted a 107 Equibase Speed Figure as a three-year old when he broke his maiden last March after being unraced as a two-year old. He looks dangerous in this race and you can argue that he is still improving as a 4-year old. I think 7-2 is a major overlay.


3. Skippylongstocking (6-1) Jockey: Jose Ortiz Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.


This 6-year-old son of Exaggerator brings extensive high-level experience to this contest with five graded stakes wins since March 2024. Skippylongstocking recently captured the (G2) Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita on May 26 as the 4-5 favorite. He finished third in this race last year, getting beat by Kingsbarnes by 2 ½ lengths. With 32 races under its belt at just six years old, one must question how much stamina this horse has left. Remarkably, it has earned over $3.6 million after being purchased for only $37,000 at the OBS Spring 2-Year-Old sale in 2021. Will be on the lead with a clean start. Catch me if you can.


4. Sierra Leone (5-2) Jockey: Flavien Prat Trainer: Chad Brown


This 4-year-old son of Gun Runner concluded his 3-year-old campaign with a dominant (G1) Breeders Cup Classic victory, earning a career-high 116 Equibase Speed Figure. Sierra Leone finished third in the (G2) New Orleans stakes on March 22 after nearly five months off. He likes the 9-furlong distance evidenced by two wins, 2 seconds, and one-third in five starts. The defending Breeders' Cup Classic winner returns to Churchill Downs seeking redemption after his narrow Kentucky Derby defeat. Sierra Leone has never run out of money in 10 career starts, earning over 6 million. Very impressive.


5. Mystik Dan (3-1) Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Trainer: Kenny McPeek


The 2024 Kentucky Derby champion returns to his favorite venue, seeking another graded stakes victory. Mystik Dan's recent triumph in the (G3) Blame Stakes demonstrated his return to form, employing the same rail-skimming tactics that earned him Derby glory. I didn't see that coming after he finished second by a nose in a listed stakes event two starts back, which earned him a new career-high 116 Equibase Speed Figure. Mystik Dan "bounced" to a 112 speed Figure in winning the Blame Stakes. This will be his third race since May 3, and he has a history of running better with more time between races.


6. Hit Show (9-2) Jockey: Florent Geroux Trainer: Brad Cox


Hit Show enters the Stephen Foster Stakes as the most accomplished horse in the field following his stunning victory in the (G1) Dubai World Cup on April 12, earning a career-high 122. This 5-year-old son of Candy Ride has earned over 8.4 million, winning 50% of his races (9-for-18). Hit Show has four wins and one-second place, going 9 furlongs on the dirt. Florent Geroux has six wins from seven starts when he rides Hit Show. First start since April, stepping back to domestic competition after international success. Brad Cox has a 25% win rate when his horses are coming off a 2-6 month layoff. Live longshot.


7. Ashcroft (30-1) Jockey: Julien Loux Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas


His career record shows two wins from 12 starts with earnings of $109,923 and has been non-competitive outside of California. Ashcroft has struggled when stepping up to stakes company, finishing no better than fifth with very slow speed figures.


Final Analysis Skippylongstocking is the most likely pacesetter, though his post position may complicate early positioning. First Mission's position in the starting gate allows him to choose between pressing the pace or following behind. Both Mindframe and Mystik Dan have the versatility to adapt to different race tempos, while Hit Show and Sierra Leone are expected to settle farther back and depend on their closing speed to make a move. There is a 60% chance of thunderstorms. All of the first six horses have at least one win on a wet track.


Selections


Win-place #2 (Mindframe)


Place-show #1 (First Mission)


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