Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap | Santa Anita | Race 10 | March 1


#1 Express Train (10/1), trained by John shirreffs & ridden by Hector Berrios


Express Train is now eight years old and has earned $1,543,800 with a record of 24 starts, with seven wins, six places, and five shows. His last win was in the 2022 Santa Anita Handicap as the even-money favorite. Express Train finished in second place, two lengths behind Katonah in the Grade 2 San Pasqual at Santa Anita on January 25. Express train has consistently performed well at Santa Anita, finishing in the money in 12 of 15 starts. However, at this stage of his career, he is a step behind some of his rivals in this field. An 18-month layoff from 2022 to 2024 raises concerns about his durability. Jockey Hector Berrios, who rode him to a Grade 2 victory in 2024, must navigate a clean trip from the rail to offset his declining speed figures.


#2 New King (8/1), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by Mike Smith


New King is a lightly raced 4-year-old colt by Into Mischief. He has competed in five races, achieving two wins, no places, and one show, with total earnings of $75,360. New King crossed the finish line first, winning an allowance race at Santa Anita on February 2, and earned a career-best 106 Equibase speed figure. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith has achieved five Big 'Cap victories and should not be overlooked. New King has yet to prove himself in stakes races; however, his pedigree and connections warrant respect. He has never won a race without Lasix, which is concerning.


#3 Hit Show (5/2), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Flavien Prat


This 5-year-old horse is sired by Candy Ride. He has a record of 16 races with eight wins, one second-place finish, and zero third-place finishes, earning a total of $1,410,930. Hit Show’s recent victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Stakes at Fair Grounds on January 18 showcased his ability to rate off the pace and deliver a powerful stretch kick. This skill will be essential at a distance of 10 furlongs. That victory occurred on a wet track. He has experienced plenty of success on a fast track, winning two Grade 2 races and finishing a close second in another Grade 2 event at Aqueduct nearly two years ago. Flavien Prat, the Eclipse Award-winning jockey of 2024, takes the reins for the first time, replacing his regular rider, Florent Geroux. Hit Show has the slowest early and middle-pace speed figures in the field, but he has the fastest late-pace figures. His pedigree indicates that he should have no trouble running 10 furlongs. However, he has never raced at Santa Anita or any time zone west of Oklahoma. Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat have a 38% win rate and finish in the top three 65% of the time when they team up.


#4 J B Strikes Back (30/1), trained by Doug O’Neill & ridden by Antonio Fresu


J B Strikes Back has earned $191,660 with a record of 9 races, four wins, zero seconds, and zero thirds. He won the Grade 2 Laffit Pincay Stakes, going 1 1/16 miles while posting a career-best 105 Equibase speed figure at Santa Anita on December 26. Antonio Fresu, who guided him to that victory, returns aboard the early front-runner. J B Strikes Back has never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles, and his lack of experience against elite competition raises significant concerns. He ranks eighth in class rating and ninth in speed figures in this field. I prefer other horses.


#5 Mirahmadi (6/1), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by Juan Hernandez


The other Baffert-trained horse in this field has a record of 11 races, two wins, four seconds, and two third-place finishes, earning $203,740. I have several questions about this four-year-old colt by Into Mischief. It took Mirahmadi nine races to finally win his maiden race, which occurred at Santa Anita on October 12th last year. Two starts back, he finished sixth, 19 ½ lengths behind Skinner when he stepped up in class at the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes held at Del Mar last November. Mirahmadi won an allowance race going one mile at Santa Anita in his only start this year. Jockey Juan Hernandez and trainer Baffert win 39% of the time and finish in the money 75% when they team up. With a clean start, he's a good bet to be on or near the lead.


#6 Katonah (8/1), trained by Doug O’Neill & ridden by Tiago Pereira


Another horse in this field, trained locally by Doug O'Neill, has a record of 17 races with five wins, three second-place finishes, and two third-place finishes, earning a total of $481,180. Katonah comes off a career-best performance in the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes on January 25 at Santa Anita, where he won by defeating Express Train by two lengths. Jockey Tiago Pereira, who rode both of the gelding's career stakes wins, understands the horse's tendencies and rhythm. However, lingering questions exist about his ability to compete in Grade 1 races, especially after finishing seventh in the 2024 Pacific Classic. Kilmt's offspring achieved only 12% wins and 37% in-the-money finishes in long dirt races from a sample size of 180 horses. His record at Santa Anita is impressive (10: 4-1-2); however, I don't believe this horse can handle the 10-furlong journey.


#7 Locked (3/2), trained by Todd Pletcher & ridden by Jose Ortiz


This 4-year-old colt by Gun Runner appears formidable with a career record of 7 starts, four wins, 1 second, and two third-place finishes, earning $1,481,650. As a two-year-old, Locked won the 2023 Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and finished third behind Fierceness and Muth in the 2023 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, demonstrating his suitability for this surface. This classy colt showcased his talent with a determined second-place finish in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup (1 1/8 miles) at Gulfstream Park on January 25, coming from mid-pack despite a wide trip. Locked won the Grade 2 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct two starts back last December, showcasing his versatility by adapting to a one-turn configuration. With a lineage designed for stamina and a running style that suits Santa Anita’s long stretch run, Locked poses a significant threat if he makes the cross-country trip without any adverse effects. The clear morning-line favorite is the one to beat.


#8 Midnight Mammoth (30/1), trained by Craig Dollase & ridden Armando Ayuso


His career record of 33: 7-4-7, earning $321,430, doesn't excite me. Midnight Mammoth could be an early pace-setter as he's been on the lead at first call in his last five races. He's coming off back-to-back sixth-place finishes by a combined 35 lengths. He won the Grade 2 Cougar II Stakes at Del Mar three starts ago last July. Midnight Mammoth took the lead early and won by 10 ¼ lengths, posting a career-best Equibase speed figure of 107 at odds of 9/1. However, he has the slowest late-pace speed figure among this group. I can’t make a strong case for this horse to finish in the top three.


#9 Tarantino (12/1), trained by Peter Eurton & ridden by Edwin Maldonado


Tarantino is a 7-year-old gelding by Pioneerof the Nile, with a career record of 27 starts, four wins, seven places, and five shows, earning $375,670. Two of his four career wins came on turf. In his last five races, Tarantino has won two, finished second twice, and placed third once, with Edwin Maldonado riding in four of those events. The streak started with a narrow victory by a head in a $40,000 claiming race at Del Mar last July. This was followed by another close win, also by a head, in an allowance race two months and two days later at Santa Anita, where the horse ran 1 1/16 miles and achieved a career-best Equibase speed figure of 112. Three starts back, Tarantino placed second behind Skinner in the Grade 3 Native Diver at Delmar last November. Two starts ago, the horse finished second in the Grade 2 Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes, losing to J B Strikes Back. Tarantino finished third in the Grade 2 San Pasqual at Santa Anita in his final prep on January 25th, overcoming a troubled start by rallying from last place. He finished the race 2 ¾ lengths behind Katonah. Clockers observed that his final furlong time was 11.98 seconds, marking a personal best for him. Tarantino is an intriguing long shot.


Selections


#3 Hit Show to Win and Place


Trifecta Box: $0.50 bet on horses #2, #3, #5, #7, and #1 (Tarantino Scratched


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