Grade 1 Preakness Stakes Preview | Race 13 | Pimlico | May 17


1. Goal Oriented (6/1) Bob Baffert / Flavien Prat


Goal Oriented is 2-for-2 and is now making a significant jump in class. He earned a 109 Equibase Speed Figure in his allowance win on a sloppy surface during the Kentucky Derby undercard. Bob Baffert, an 8-time Preakness winner, brings another serious contender who could set or press the early pace. A short turnaround of 14 days is a significant concern, and he will race without Lasix for the first time. Additionally, since 1971, only five horses have won the Preakness without racing as two-year-olds. All five victories have come since 2000, including back-to-back wins by Justify in 2018 and Cloud Computing in 2017. Pass.


2. Journalism (8/5) Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli


The runner-up of the Kentucky Derby and the winner of the Santa Anita Derby enter the race as the clear favorite. Journalism has strong closing speed and is expected to stay near the pace. He had a four-race win streak interrupted only by Sovereignty in the Derby, making him the class of the field. Pimlico's shorter stretch and tighter turns may better suit his running style. Bred by Curlin, he has never finished out of the money in his six lifetime starts, but he will face a stiff challenge after just 14 days of rest—the One to Beat.


3. American Promise (15/1) D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez


American Promise, the winner of the Virginia Derby, brings both stamina and experience to the race. With Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a consistent threat in Triple Crown events, this colt may excel with the added distance. There is a significant concern. This will mark his 11th race in less than 10 months, following a 16th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. American Promise needs a long vacation to rest and recharge—hard pass.


4. Heart of Honor (12/1) Jamie Osborne / Saffie Osborne


Heart of Honor enters the Preakness Stakes with strong momentum, as recent reports describe him as "thriving at the right time." However, he must improve to be competitive, having finished second in three consecutive stakes races in Japan. His speed figures are slower than his competitors, and the quality of his overseas competition was significantly weaker than what he will face in America. Japanese horses are winless in all Triple Crown races. I prefer others.


5. Pay Billy (20/1) Michael Gorham / Raul Mena


Pay Billy, the winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park on April 19th, emerged from that race with a minor wound. As the son of Improbable, Pay Billy has finished in the money in six of his eight career starts. However, he has yet to face top-level competition and will need to raise his game to compete with this field's class and speed. The Preakness will mark Mike Gorham's first appearance in a Triple Crown race. Gorham is a multiple graded-stakes-winning trainer who has achieved 1,443 victories since 1985. The distance may not suit Pay Billy, and this race will be his ninth in just over nine months. Pass.


6. River Thames (9/2) Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr.


River Thames was unraced as a two-year-old and finished third in the Blue Grass after losing by a neck to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth. While he lacks a signature win, his stalking style may benefit from a fast early pace. Only three New York-bred horses, including Funny Cide in 2003, have won the Preakness. Todd Pletcher has yet to win it in ten attempts. River Thames is another horse that did not race as a two-year old. Notably, post position six has produced 17 Preakness winners. His preferred distance may be 1 mile. I am on the fence with this horse. Use Underneath.


7. Sandman (4/1) Mark Casse / John Velazquez


The Arkansas Derby winner, with a 104 Equibase Speed Figure, enters the Preakness as a solid Grade 1 winner. Three starts back, he finished third in the Rebel Stakes and before that finished second in the Southwest Stakes. Coal Battle and Madaket Road finished ahead of Sandman in the Rebel stakes. Coal Battle was overmatched in the Derby, while Madaket Road finished second in the Pat Day Mile. Despite starting in 18th place at the first call after getting bumped early, he made an impressive run to finish in 7th. The horse, purchased for $1.2 million, has earned $1,254,600 for his ownership group. The distance should not be an issue as he's sired by Tapit, who can run all day. He has never run two subpar races back-to-back, but must do so after 14 days of rest. Also, regular rider Jose Ortiz has jumped ship to ride Clever Again, although you can't go wrong with Johnny V. I think 4/1 is a huge underlay.


8. Clever Again (5/1) Steve Asmussen / Jose Ortiz


Clever Again is sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. He recently achieved a gate-to-wire victory in the Hot Springs Stakes, recording an impressive 108 Equibase Speed Figure. His speed figures have improved over his first three races. Asmussen has a strong Preakness record, and this colt's tactical speed makes him a legitimate win contender. The partnership with Jose Ortiz (29% win rate) further enhances this horse's chances. With a sharp five-furlong workout in 1:00.40 during his Preakness preparations, Asmussen believes his colt's natural cruising speed makes him particularly dangerous at Pimlico. Clever Again possesses the fastest (tied) late-pace speed figure and is expected to be on or near the lead with a clean start. Jose Ortiz chose Clever Again over Sandman. Lightly raced but shows great promise at an attractive price. My Top Choice.


9. Gosger (20/1) Brendan Walsh / Luis Saez


Gosger, the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes winner at Keeneland, earned his way into the Preakness with that victory. However, he didn't accumulate enough points to qualify for the Run for the Roses. As a late-developing three-year-old, Gosger could be peeking at the right time. He has improved his speed figures in all three career starts, from an 80 in his maiden race to a 96 in the Lexington Stakes. The Nyquist-bred colt will need to improve by another 10-15 points, but is eligible to do so in his fourth career start. His sire has produced horses better suited for races no longer than 1 mile and 1/16th. This trainer-jockey combination has achieved a 33% win rate and has finished in the money 52% of the time. Consider using him underneath.


Jeff’s Preakness Best Bet


#8 Clever Again (5/1) Win & Place


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