American Derby | Churchill Downs | Race 12 | June 28


1. Reagan's Wit (3-1) Jockey: Jose Ortiz Trainer: Cherie DeVaux


Reagan's Wit enters this race after a decisive victory in the James W. Murphy Stakes (listed) at Pimlico on May 17, where he won by 3 ¼ lengths as the 1-2 favorite. This chestnut son of Authentic has demonstrated consistent form on turf, finishing second by a neck to Zulu Kingdom in the Columbia Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on March 8. After showcasing similar speed figures in consecutive races, he is training like a horse poised for further improvement. Win Contender.


2. Flying Mohawk (8-1) Jockey: Lanfranco Dettori Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman


Flying Mohawk brings an abnormal path to this race, having made his dirt debut in the (G1) Kentucky Derby after five turf starts and one synthetic surface race. Two starts back, he finished second in the Jeff Ruby Stakes and has $295,800 in career earnings with a best Equibase Speed Figure of 97. Returning to the turf should benefit him, but he still lacks a stakes win. His fifth-place finish against Zulu Kingdom was respectable, especially since he led in the stretch. His pedigree is well-suited for turf races at 8.5 furlongs; however, he needs to recover after a difficult trip in the Kentucky Derby, where he was jostled early on.


3. Tiztastic (5-2) Jockey: Joel Rosario Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen


Tiztastic enters this race with impressive credentials, winning the (G2) Louisiana Derby by 2 ¼ lengths on March 22. However, his Kentucky Derby performance was disappointing, finishing 10th and 16 ½ lengths behind the winner, Sovereignty. His two career wins came initially in turf races, but he demonstrated versatility with that victory in the Louisiana Derby. This colt, by Tiz the Law, will make his first start at today’s turf distance. However, Tiztastic’s pedigree has strong performances in 8.5-furlong turf races. He has been working on the Churchill Downs turf course, which is always a positive sign leading up to a big race. Top Choice.


4. Siesta Key (20-1) Jockey: Flavien Prat Trainer: Brad Cox


This will be his first start since finishing 8th in a Grade 2 stakes event last October at Keeneland. Siesta Key is a Godolphin homebred who won on debut in an off-the-turf maiden special weight at Saratoga on August 1, 2024. Two starts back, Siesta Key won the 2024 Kitten's Joy Stakes at Colonial Downs with a very slow speed figure. The connections are incredibly high on this 3-year-old son of Into Mischief. The horse's pedigree across generations doesn't strongly suggest success in an 8.5-furlong turf race. However, the trainer and jockey combination has a proven track record, winning 35% of the time when they work together. Additionally, Brad Cox has a 30% success rate with his horses coming off a layoff of six months or more.


5. Minaret Station (15-1) Jockey: Cristian Torres Trainer: William Walden


Another horse is set to make his debut in 2025. He was last seen winning the Grade 2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland on October 6, where he achieved a career-high Equibase Speed Figure of 96. He has completed eight solid workouts with no significant gaps leading to his comeback race. He is well-suited for a distance of 8.5 furlongs on the turf, particularly due to his dam's lineage. However, I doubt whether he has a solid enough foundation to win this race in his fourth career start. He will likely stalk the pace and finish strongly, especially if the early fractions are competitive.


6. Native Runner (10-1) Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Trainer: Kenneth McPeek


Recently won an allowance race at Churchill Downs on June 7, achieving a career-high 102 Equibase Speed Figure, likely aided by running on Lasix. He will not be allowed to use medication, and Native Runner has not won in three attempts when racing without Lasix. He must step up in class and run again in 28 days after achieving a new top-speed figure. His victory on the course and the potent trainer-jockey combination at Churchill Downs should inspire confidence. Native Runner will track mid-pack and aim for a late run, taking advantage of the turf's closer-friendly bias.


7. Soleil Volant Jockey (12-1) Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Graham Motion


This chestnut gelding finished a distant second to Reagan's Wit in the James Murphy Stakes at Pimlico on May 17. He was 3 ¼ lengths behind and was never a serious contender for the win. With only one victory (his maiden win) from eight starts, he has shown very slow speed and low-class ratings. Additionally, I believe the distance of the race is too far for him. For these reasons, I find him an easy horse to toss from consideration.


8. Freedom's Not Free (7-2) Jockey: Antonio Fresu Trainer: Mark Glatt


He has recorded two consecutive wins in restricted stakes at Santa Anita in 2025, both on firm turf. His speed figures have shown improvement in each of his last three races. He is set to take a minor step up in class and will be making his first start outside of California. The big unknown is how he will handle the Churchill Downs turf surface. Freedom's Not Free should be on or near the lead and is a candidate to hit the board if he can travel to Kentucky without any issues. Win Contender.


9. Giocoso (10-1) Jockey: Ben Curtis Trainer: Keith J. Desormeaux


Giocoso has competed in graded turf stakes, including the Jeff Ruby Stakes (moved from turf), and won an allowance race at Churchill in November 2024. Since the win, he finished 12th in the (G2) Risen Star, his first race of 2025, followed by two 5th place finishes, including in the Grade 1 American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 3. He raced four wide and finished four lengths behind the winner, Zulu Kingdom. Giocoso earned a career-high 100 Equibase Speed Figure, showing how well he ran in that race. Live Longshot.


10. Anegada (12-1) Jockey: Luis Saez Trainer: Michael Maker


Recently finished second to Native Runner by a neck in an allowance race at Churchill Downs on June 7, achieving a career-high 102 Equibase Speed Figure, likely aided by running on Lasix. Both horses earned the exact speed figures, and both were new tops. I don’t like this horse returning in 28 days off a new career high-speed figure. Anegada has shown clear improvement on turf, achieving faster speed figures in four consecutive races. However, he will face a substantial increase in class and will need to stretch out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time.


Selections:


3. Tiztastic (5-2) Win-Place


Exacta: #3 over #1, #8, #9


Exacta #1, #8, #9, over #3


Follow Jeff on X @JHSPORTSLINE