Chicago Cubs Over 85.5 Wins


The Chicago Cubs starting rotation, which ranked 10th in the league with an ERA of 3.82 in 2024, remains intact and is bolstered by some impactful additions. Left-hander Shota Imanaga, who had an impressive 2.91 ERA last season, and Justin Steele, who finished with a 3.07 ERA, create one of the top left-handed duos in all of baseball. The addition of Matthew Boyd from the Guardians is an underrated signing. After returning from Tommy John surgery, he had a solid 2.72 ERA over 39.2 innings while holding hitters to a scant .213 batting average. Jameson Taillon is back after finishing the season with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and 12 wins. Javier Assad has proven to be a reliable swingman, posting a 3.73 ERA over 147 innings. Colin Rea, Ben Brown, and Jordan Wicks add valuable depth to the pitching staff. According to PECOTA projections, Chicago's starting pitchers are expected to allow the seventh-fewest runs this season.


The Cubs' most overlooked achievement this offseason has been the reconstruction of their bullpen, which blew 26 saves in 2024—the sixth-most in all of baseball. The team has shored up their ninth inning by bringing in Ryan Pressly. He has a career ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.17. He has secured 112 saves, with 94 recorded in the last four seasons. This move also frees up Porter Hodge to thrive in a setup role; he racked up 52 strikeouts in 43 innings with an impressive 1.88 ERA. Eli Morgan (2.89 ERA against righties) and lefty specialist Caleb Thielbar (53 strikeouts in 47.1 innings) will enhance the Cubs' run prevention late in games. Ryan Brasier has been traded from the Dodgers and will be essential in high-leverage situations. He has recorded 281 strikeouts in 285.1 career innings while limiting batters to a .232 batting average. Chicago's relief corps now ranks among the top 10 in projected WAR. In 2024, Chicago's bullpen was ranked 22nd in Win Probability Added, costing them 8 to 10 victories.


The Chicago Cubs' offense is set to take a significant step forward in 2025, thanks to key offseason acquisitions, the continued development of young talent, and a strong core of returning players. After finishing 12th in runs scored (736), 17th in batting average (.242), and 13th in OPS (.710) last season, the Cubs have positioned themselves for a much more potent offense and possibly crack the top 10.


We're excited about the addition of Kyle Tucker to the team. He's one of the most consistent and productive outfielders in the league! Tucker has demonstrated an impressive combination of power and speed throughout his seven seasons, achieving an OPS of .869, 125 home runs, and 94 stolen bases. Although he faced challenges last season, playing only 78 games with the Astros, there is hope for a successful campaign in his first season with the Cubs. With Seiya Suzuki projected for a 130 wRC+ in 2025 and Ian Happ, who tied his career-high of 25 home runs and collected a career-best 86 RBI last season, the Cubs now have a formidable top three in their batting order. Michael Busch had an impressive rookie season, hitting 28 doubles and 21 home runs in 152 games, and adds significant offensive depth at first base. Pete Crow-Armstrong will take over center field following the departure of Cody Bellinger (Yankees). As of March 10, Armstrong is batting .520 with three home runs and two stolen bases in 25 at-bats during spring training games. He is also regarded as an excellent defender.


Matt Shaw will begin the season as the Cubs' third baseman. Over two seasons in the Minor Leagues, he has achieved a .906 OPS, a .303 batting average, 29 home runs, and 46 stolen bases. He's one of my top fantasy sleepers at the hot corner this season. If Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson can improve their offensive performance and support this revamped core, the Cubs' offense can become one of the most balanced and dangerous units in MLB. Catcher Miguel Amaya is impressing everyone this spring with his exceptional defense and a remarkable batting average of .524, including two home runs in just 21 at-bats as of March 10. Justin Turner brings a wealth of experience with his solid .285 career batting average, adding valuable depth at the corner positions. Jon Berti adds depth and brings youth to the infield with a career average of .259, 24 home runs, and 97 stolen bases over seven seasons, five of which were spent with the Marlins.


PECOTA forecasts that the Cubs will achieve 91.3 wins, which provides a comfortable 7.5-win margin over their total of 85.5. They have an 80.2% chance of winning the division. The model shows that the Cubs have a well-rounded roster, predicting they'll be in the top 10 for both runs scored and runs allowed, sitting at 7th in each category. Even more interesting is that no other team in the NL Central is expected to hit 80 wins, which gives the Cubs a nice edge in the division.


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