Seattle Mariners Over 84.5 Season Wins


The Seattle Mariners have maintained continuity in their roster, returning 20 of the 26 players from their 2024 team, which finished with a record of 85-76 (49-32 at home and 36-45 on the road). This stability helps reduce early-season chemistry issues and allows hitters to build on their familiarity with the pitchers. Seattle is a big proponent of advanced analytics. Manager Scott Servais emphasizes data-driven preparation, optimizing platoon splits and defensive shifts while adhering to new rules.


The Mariners' starting rotation continues to be the foundation of their team. In 2024, Seattle's starters led MLB in several key statistics: they recorded the best ERA at 3.23, pitched the most innings with 955.1, achieved 98 Quality Starts, and held opponents to a batting average of .221. The group, which includes Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, will remain unchanged for the 2025 season. This stability is unusual in a league where pitching performance can be highly unpredictable. Logan Gilbert stood out last season as a contender for the Cy Young Award, finishing sixth in strikeouts with 228 and leading the league in WHIP at 1.02. Bryan Woo ranked in the 78th percentile for hard-hit rate and 91st percentile for barrel percentage last year, making him a player to watch this season for both fantasy and real-life baseball.


In 2024, Seattle's offense struggled, ranking 29th in batting average and 21st in runs scored. However, their Pythagorean win-loss record suggested they should have achieved four more wins. Julio Rodriguez is central to their revival. Despite a "down" season (.273/.325/.409, 20 HR, 24 SB, 116 wRC+), metrics reveal his potential: 95th percentile hard-hit rate (53.8%) and 98th percentile sprint speed (30.1 feet/sec). At just 24 years old, he is on the verge of achieving superstar status. ZiPS projects his bounce-back season stats to be .285/.340/.480, with 28 home runs and 30 stolen bases. These projections may be overly conservative. Rodriguez offers excellent value in fantasy drafts this year and may fall into the late second round in a 10-team league.


Surrounding Rodriguez, several veterans are poised for rebounds. Designated hitter Mitch Haniger had a disappointing 2024 season with a .235/.290/.398 line and an 85 wRC+, but has a stronger career wRC+ of 115. Third baseman Jorge Polanco posted a wRC+ of 92 last season, below his average of 108, but could improve with an offseason to adjust to his new position. Catcher Cal Raleigh remains a reliable power source with 30 HR in 2024, while outfielder Randy Arozarena will add significant offensive firepower from the start after his mid-season trade last year.


While Seattle's offense faced criticism, their defense performed well, ranking sixth in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved (+42) in 2024. Retaining Gold Glove finalist J.P. Crawford at shortstop and benefiting from Julio's elite center-field range ensures a strong defense up the middle. Additionally, newcomer Victor Robles, acquired through trade, brings another strong defender to right field.


Closer Andres Munoz led a strong bullpen in 2024, achieving a 2.78 ERA with 34 saves and an impressive 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Set-up men Matt Brash (3.12 ERA, 12.1 strikeouts per nine) and Justin Topa (2.95 ERA) provide reliable support. While middle-relief depth is a concern, the Mariners' rotation-heavy approach, averaging a league-best 6.1 innings per start, helps alleviate pressure on the bullpen.


Seattle's struggles in one-run games last season (22 wins, 28 losses) have led to disappointing results. However, their bullpen's 3.89 ERA ranked 11th in MLB. To address this, the team has added a sports psychologist to help players deal with clutch scenarios. The Mariners will play 12 of their first 15 games at Safeco Field. Their 2025 interleague schedule features matchups against the NL Central. Last season, Seattle excelled against these opponents with a 12-6 record, providing a model for success this year.


The success of the Seattle Mariners in 2025 depends on a few key factors: having top-notch starting pitching, solid defense, good matchups within the division, and a boost in offensive performance. Even though some folks are unhappy about the team not making big moves in the off-season, it's clear that prioritizing internal development fits well with the team's historical trends. Key players like Julio Rodriguez show MVP potential, while veterans like Haniger and Polanco can bounce back, supporting lineup concerns. With a weakened AL West and a favorable interleague schedule, the Mariners are on track for over 85 wins, assuming no significant injuries.


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