Free Sports Game Preview and Prediction: St. Peters vs. Tennessee
Thursday, March 21, 2024 9:20 PM
Play: Point Spread: +21.5/-110 St. Peters
We are in the Midwest Region for our Free Selection on Thursday. The two seed Tennessee Volunteers face off against the fifteen seeded Peacocks of Saint Peters Thursday night. The only way into this tournament for the Peacocks was to win the MAAC Tournament and that is exactly what they did. St. Peters defeated Fairfield in the championship game winning 68 to 63 as +3.5-point underdogs. The Vols won the regular season title in the SEC but were embarrassed in the quarterfinal round by Mississippi State losing 73 to 56 as -9.5-point favorites. There is no doubt the Vols are the better team here, but our numbers tell us the oddsmakers have overvalued them in this situation. The Vols have won games comfortably when they had large spreads, but they didn’t come close to covering the spread in most of them. Saint Peters on the other hand has done a nice job of covering the spread when they were large underdogs, and we expect a similar performance tonight. The Peacocks are a strong defensive team ranked seventy-eighth in the nation in defensive efficiency which is a very strong rating for a fifteen seed. The SEC is only 11-16 ATS in first round games the last five seasons with only three outright wins by twenty or more points. The Peacocks are 21-10 ATS overall this season including a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a SU win as an underdog. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 17.3 points. The MM projects a point differential of -4.23 in the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the Saint Peters Peacocks with a 60.59 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. Play AGAINST CBB favorites in this price range coming off four straight games that went Under the posted total, 12-26 ATS. Play ON CBB underdogs in this price range facing a team with a win percentage of .667 or better and coming off two road games, 100-66-4 ATS including 90-55-3 ATS if they are a road underdog in this price range. We are going to take the points on Thursday night with the Peacocks as they slow the pace and keep this one well within the number.