Free Sports Game Preview and Prediction: Duke vs. Temple
Thursday, December 27, 2018 1:30 PM
Play: Point Spread: -3.0/-110 Temple
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Temple (236) DUKE (7 - 5) vs. TEMPLE (8 - 4) Week 16 Thursday, 12/27/2018 1:30 PM INDEPENDENCE BOWl - Independence Stadium - Shrevport, LA SIM grading and Recommended Strategy 5-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale. Place a 5-star wager on the Temple Owls, who are currently priced as 3-point favorites. SIM Projections and Results Temple ranks 25th in the nation with a solid 0.5 turnover margin while Duke ranks 97 with a -0.5 TOM. This simply means that Temple forces opponents to have 0.5 more turnovers per game they commit and the exact oppositive for Duke. The TOM will be a significant metric in this game and Temple is projected to force Duke into 3 and possibly more turnovers and that overall Temple will win the TOM battle by at least 1 net turnover. Temple also ranks 14th in the nation averaging 37.3 points per game while Duke ranks 89th scoring 24.6 PPG. So, if you are the inferior offensive team and are projected to have more turnovers than that opponent, it makes it overwhelming to fight back and win the game. Temple is 105-23 SU winning by 16.5 PPG and 92-21-1 ATS covering by an average of 11.7 PPG when scoring 28 or more points; 11-4 SU winning by an Average of 13.5 points and 12-2-1 ATS covering by an average of 11.5 points since 2017. When scoring 28 or more points and winning the turnover battle by at least one turnover they are 7-1 SUATS winning by 18.3 points and covering the spread by 13.3 points. Our database tells us that playing against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games and is now facing an opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games has produced a nice profit via a 49-23 ATS mark for 68% winners over the last five season of games.
 

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