Free Sports Game Preview and Prediction: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 3:45 PM
Play: Money Line: -115 Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati vs San Francisco 3:45 PM EST, April 14, 2021 6-Unit Best Bet on the Cincinnati Reds using the money line. The Reds will be facing their former ace Johnny Ceuto for the fourth time since his departure. The Reds are leading all of MLB in scoring offense averaging 6.9 runs-per-game and have a extremely good starting pitcher on the hill for this 12:35 PST start in San Francisco. Tyler Mahlee is 6-3, 210 lbs, and was drafted by the Reds in the 7th-round of the 2013 draft and made his MLB debut August 27th against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He is a traditional three-pitch starter, who throws fastball 56%, slider 31%, and splitter 13%. Most starters have a chance that they will use against batters that bat the same side as their pitcher arm, but Tyler is different and for good reason. His splitter and slider come out of the same arm slot and are very difficult for batters to identify. As a result, the splitter gets the highest percentage of whiffs and strikeouts. He throws fastball at an average of 95 MPH and looks more like 100 MPH following his 87-88 MPH cutter and splitter. Plus, he averages 35% whiffs on all pitches thrown, which is outstanding. He also has above average spin rates which creates late breaking movement on his fastball that averages 2500 RPM and his slider that averages 2600 RPM. His splitter, as expected, averages between 1900 and 2000 and has much steeper vertical drop than the any of the other two pitches. Ceuto has not been the same dominant ace that he once was so far in 2021. He has allowed a 92 MPH exit velocity including 50% of ball batted ion play being hard-hit events. He is only throwing 26% strikes while Mahlee is peppering the plate with 41% strikes. Ceuto produces a decent 28% whiff-rate, but fails in comparison to Mahlee. So, huge advantage to the Reds with Mahlee on the hill. The Giants offense has been anemic at best in 2021 scoring just 3.1 RPG ranking 27th in MLB. Moreover, they rank16th with a 93 OPS+ rating. Reds are 4th in MLB with a 121 OPS+ rating. So, clearly Tyler has the less difficult lineup to face in this matchup. From the machine learning applications, we expect Maylee to pitch a quality start throwing 6 or more innings and allowing three or fewer earned runs, and the Reds scoring at least four runs. Over the past three seasons, the Reds are 29-1 using the money line and the run line in road tilts, scoring four or more runs, and with their starter making a quality start. Take the Reds!
 

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