Saturday, January 4, 2020 4:35 PM

Play: Money Line (+145) Buffalo Bills

After handicapping the game, I determined that the Bills should be 3 to 3.5 point favorites in this matchup. The Bills have played better on the road than at home, scoring 22.14 points per game while out on the highway and had allowed just 15.86 per game on the road up until that Week 16 game against the New England Patriots. Now they sit at 21.5 on offense and 15.63 allowed per road game and let’s be honest, the Texans defense is nothing like the Patriots, they just gave up 35 to the Titans and allow 24.5 per game in NRG Stadium. The Houston Texans score a bit more at home (23.63 per game) but Deshaun Watson has really struggled recently throwing 5 picks in three games and Carlos Hyde is going to find it difficult to run against this elite Bills defense which ranks No. 9 in stopping the run.  Much of the success the Texans have had as come against sub-500 teams. The Bills have played a tougher schedule and been more successful. In short, they are a more complete team. Although Josh Allen has some work to do before becoming a great QB, he has grown leaps and bounds this season. You can take the +3 point spread as a safe bet because if the Bills happen to lose, it won’t be by more than a field goal. The real value is the ML. The Bills should be listed as favorites and I would not be surprised to see sharp money move the betting odds to +2.5 soon. Take Buffalo as a dog while the ML value lasts.

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