By Doug Upstone For the last full weekend in August, for line moves, we have a full plate of baseball and football action! Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (304-225-5 long term, 113-73-3 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week. MLB – (965) BOSTON at (966) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET NESN, FS-SUN For all intents and purposes, Tampa Bay has one true starting pitcher in Blake Snell and is 12th in the AL in runs scored, yet is six games over .500. Their unconventional approach has worked and they have seen their odds slide against the baseball best team from +140 to +125. Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.37 ERA) will be the Rays "starter" and Boston counters with Hector Velazquez (7-1, 2.74), who will have a somewhat similar role, but the Red Sox hope he goes a few more innings. Tampa Bay has a shot since they are 11-5 as home underdogs of +125 or larger, but the BoSox are 9-0 after seven or more home games. Betting Trend - 85% backing Boston Doug's Take - Lean Boston MLB – (973) HOUSTON at (974) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET ATT-H, FSW Though not 100 percent healthy, Houston has as many able bodies as they have had in some time and just won a big series at Seattle. The offense has put together three double-digit hit games in their last four and seems to be coming back around. The money is on the Astros, who have been jettisoned from -140 to -165 against Andrew Heaney (7-7, 4.11) and the Angels. There is conjecture Mike Trout could return tonight, which would lower the line, but with the 'Stros 38-13 as a road favorite of -125 or more and 9-0 away after a game where they had 17 or more hits and they have to get the call. Betting Trend - 92% backing Houston Doug's Take - Houston wins NFLX – (257) NEW ENGLAND at (258) CAROLINA 7:30 ET (side and total) Both these clubs come in at 2-0. Bill Belichick surprised everyone by playing Tom Brady for a half last week. It makes little sense to expose Brady again at this point, yet the Patriots are down from +2 to a Pick against Carolina. With all the uncertainty, the total is also down two points. Myself, I like the OVER the best with how both offenses have looked and a small play on the Panthers to cover. Betting Trend - 68% backing Over, 69% on New England Doug's Take - Play Over, slight lean Carolina NFLX – (263) GREEN BAY at (264) OAKLAND 10:30 ET NFLN When it was presumed Aaron Rodgers was not going to play, the Packers shot up from +3 to +7. As Thursday night approached, cooler heads prevailed and Green Bay is back to +5 against Oakland. The Pack's offense has been sizzling in averaging 41 PPG as every quarterback has played well with an emphasis on the passing game to develop their young receivers. Oakland's John Gruden was more conservative than a corporate banker with his own money last week against the Rams since they start the season with them. There was a lot of sharp money on Green Bay at +7, but it has leveled off since, but still a decent value on the Packers. Betting Trend - 73% backing Green Bay Doug's Take - Lean Green Bay NFLX – Saturday - (269) HOUSTON at (270) L.A. RAMS 4:00 ET In this game and Sunday's Arizona at Dallas game on NBC, the home teams are expected to play few regulars compared to the visiting teams and have been flipped from favorites to underdogs. Though Houston and the Cardinals offer little value, by all appearances the home team will not be that engaged and does not have a lot of help at backup quarterback, which makes the visiting favorites the more secure choice. Betting Trend - 77% backing Houston, 73% on Arizona Doug's Take - Leans Houston and Arizona Public Consensus Record (2018) - 51% to 79% - 158-159-8 ATS Public Consensus Record (2018) - 80% or Higher - 62-57-1 ATS Line Movement Direction Record (2018) - 234-229-9 ATS
 

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