For line moves this weekend, we have a ton of action for you! Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (296-219-5 long term, 104-67-3 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
MLB – (901) N.Y. METS at (902) PHILADELPHIA 6:05 ET SNY (side and total)
The Mets have Noah Syndergaard (8-2, 3.22 ERA) starting, they are coming off scoring 46 runs in about 29 hours, but have gone from +140 to +160. What gives? Taking on Aaron Nola (13-3, 2.28) has a lot to do with it. It's hard to argue with Nola and Phillies at home this season where they are 11-0. The total climbing from 7 to 7.5 is a reaction to how hot the Mets bats have been. Though I'm inclined to possibly agree with the totals move, Snydergaard is 8-0 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse and Nola 11-0 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season.
Betting Trend - 70% backing Philadelphia and 55% on Under
Doug's Take - Philadelphia wins and Under
MLB – (911) MILWAUKEE at (912) ST. LOUIS 8:15 ET FSWI, FSMW
Both these teams are chasing the Cubs in the NL Central. The betting action in the series opener is on the total, down from 8.5 to 8, with Freddy Peralta (5-3, 4.47) facing Jack Flaherty (6-6, 3.22). With both teams above their season averages in scoring the last seven contests and Milwaukee 8-1 OVER in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better and St. Louis 18-7 OVER in home games after a loss by two runs or less, the OVER is my play.
Betting Trend - 67% backing Over
Doug's Take - Play Over
NFLX - (413) BUFFALO at (414) CLEVELAND 7:30 ET NFLN
The total in this AFC preseason affair really jumped, going from 38 to 41. The most obvious reason is both teams have a competitive quarterback situation and each QB has something to prove. Though Cleveland is 6-0 UNDER recently when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, I like the quarterbacks from both teams play well enough this turns into an OVER play.
Betting Trend - 69% backing Over
Doug's Take - Lean Over
NFLX - Saturday - (419) OAKLAND at (420) L.A. RAMS 4:00 ET NFLN (side and total)
Sean McVay said this week that his starters will see extremely limited or no action this week, which led to the Rams sinking from -3 to -1 and the total to collapse from 42.5 to 39. That changes my position quite a bit and I'll have only very small leans on the Rams and Under and will not count as official plays.
Betting Trend - 81% backing Under and 50-50 split
Doug's Take - Slight leans Rams and Under
NFLX - Saturday - (429) SEATTLE at (430) L.A. CHARGERS 10:00 ET NFLN
Seattle had only 195 yards of offense and the Chargers turned the ball over four times as both teams lost. Football bettors are not counting on much offense and forced sportsbooks to drop the total two points to 39.5. My Game Estimators are calling for 38.5 or 39 points, so let's go that direction and take the UNDER.
Betting Trend - 60% backing Under
Doug's Take - Lean Under
MLB – HOUSTON (-130) at OAKLAND (+110) (Series Betting)
Oakland has climbed with two games of the World Series champs and a weekend sweep would jettison them to first place in the AL West. Houston is beaten and battered with injuries but is still 41-18 on the road this season. The series lid-lifter features two older starters who are thriving in their environment with Charlie Morton and the much-traveled Edwin Jackson. Game 2 has Dallas Keuchel vs. Trevor Cahill and the series finale features Justin Verlander against Sean Manaea. I'm going to go with the pedigree and the fact the Astros at 17-8 at Oak-Town the last few years, including 6-0 this season.
Betting Trend - 56% backing Houston
Doug's Take - Houston wins
Public Consensus Record (2018) - 51% to 79% - 153-154-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) - 80% or Higher - 59-56-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) - 194-209-9 ATS
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