Posted by Anthony Acosta.

One of the more common betting strategies discussed by NBA bettors involves the role of fatigue — specifically the impact of playing in back-to-back games. Many bettors believe that oddsmakers overvalue the significance of playing on consecutive nights, while others claim that back-to-back games are only detrimental to a team if they’re playing on the road due to the impact of travel.

Since we subscribe to a contrarian philosophy and tend to go against common perception, our belief was that betting against tired teams would be a profitable betting strategy. Furthermore we believed that oddsmakers would continue to overvalue home court advantage, thus improving our overall edge.

We wanted to focus on fading teams who are not only playing in the second night of a back-to-back but also were playing at least their third game in the past five days. Although the system produced a winning record of 1,923-1,845 ATS (51%), it did not win enough to cover the standard juice charged by most sportsbooks. However, when we focused on fading home teams, the record improved by leaps and bounds with a record of 643-502 ATS (56.2%) with +112.72 units won and a 9.8% ROI.

-Anthony Acosta
 

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