First thing that has to be taken into to account is the 69-17 beating that Missouri gave Nevada last year. The Tigers offense moved the ball at will against the Wolfpack in the 2nd half. I take two pieces of information from that game, Nevada is in a revenge situation but it was clear that they were severely outclassed by Missouri last year. One of the more surprising things so far this season has been the poor play of Nevada. Their offense was expected to be explosive this year, yet they have only put up 20 points total, despite having an entire off-season to prepare for Notre Dame and two weeks to prepare for Colorado State. In fact, the Wolfpack were really dominated much more than the score suggested against the Rams, as the score was 35-6 late in the 4th quarter. However, Nevada did gain 420 yards in that contest, but most of the yardage was gained in garbage time. Nevada’s poor performance in their first two games is what scares me here because if there is any game that they will get up for it will be this one. They have a featured primetime game at home against a BCS team that absolutely embarrassed them last year. Situationally this game screams Nevada, especially being an underdog of over a touchdown. However, Missouri has a very large advantage in athleticism and talent. Over the last few years Nevada has a horrible point spread and straight up record when playing BCS conference teams both at home and on the road. These power conference teams have just shredded their defense and put up tons of points. Nevada’s defense looks to be horrible once again this year. Missouri’s quarterback Blaine Gabbert is a very good quarterback, but this game will be his first true road start. In addition, the Tigers have a bye week before they start Big 12 Conference play, so their motivation will at least be somewhat in question here. It’s not likely that the Tigers players are excited to play to Reno, Nevada to play a team that they destroyed last year, especially with their rivalry game against Nebraska looming in two weeks. Overall I cannot recommend a play on this game. If Missouri comes out and plays hard then they will probably cover this number. However, if Nevada’s offense comes out strong and their defense gets turnovers then they could cover at home. Match-up wise this game screams take Missouri, but situationally it screams Nevada. Clear pass for me.
 

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