The internet is flooded with articles about why you should bet on the NFL preseason and how to do it successfully. Most of them state the same generic stuff like look at the quarterback rotations of each team, bet on first year head coaches, and take the under in the first week of the preseason. However, blindly following all of those ideas last year would have left you with a winning percentage below 50% and a lower bankroll. Were last year’s results just an anomaly? If the listed strategies truly do not work, then how do you make a profit in the preseason? Let’s answer these two questions and talk about some other NFL preseason ideas and strategies. Last preseason teams with legitimate quarterback competitions were around 50% against the spread. This trend goes against what the average handicapper will tell you should happen, as usually active competitions lead to more aggressive play calling and more motivated quarterbacks. Meanwhile, first year coaches last year also went about 50% against the spread, defying what the experts would expect. Furthermore, the under went 7-9 against the spread in week 1 of the preseason, including the Hall of Fame Game. In my opinion, there is one main reason for these rare outcomes. With the increase in sports wagering and the love of the betting public in wagering on football, oddsmakers have been increasingly forced to put out sharper lines in these NFL exhibition games. As a result, they accounted for these factors much more so than in previous years and over adjusted the lines as a result. So if the oddsmakers are setting sharper lines by accounting for previous trends, then how is it possible to make a profit in the preseason? First and foremost, the most important thing I am going to use in my handicapping are quotes from the head coach. These quotes in interviews and press conferences are so critical to making any kind of selection in the preseason. However, there is so much more to using these quotes than just deciding if the team is going to play hard or not. For example, if a coach says that he wants to work on the passing game, even though his quarterback rotation is horrible, they will probably not have success. Also, if a coach says he wants to focus on running the ball or defensive packages, then the under would be worth a look. Each preseason game requires a very unique approach from any other game in any other sport. It is absolutely essential to try and figure out what each head coach’s goals are heading into the game. If you are able to figure out what these factors are with confidence, then decide if they are strong enough to make a selection. For example, one coach might state publicly that he wants his team to play well, but if that team is around a six or seven point favorite, then the play is probably not worth taking. However, that team might be worth a look if they are a small favorite or an underdog. Coaches comments are the majority of what I base my selections on the NFL preseason, but there are a few other factors that are worth taking a look at. These factors include scheduling situations, motivational factors, injuries, quarterback rotations, value, as well as anything else that might come along. An example of a scheduling situation was last year when Dallas when straight to Denver, staying on the road, instead of going back home after their preseason week one game at San Diego. Consequently, the Cowboys lost against the spread and straight up at Denver in week two. Numerous injuries can also be a key to use. A coach will be reluctant to play his better players as long if he’s already dealing with injuries. Selections on large underdogs, as well as the over on a small total and the under on a large total are worth taking a look at. No matter how well you think you have a preseason game nailed down, these exhibition games always have more unpredictability to them than the average regular season game. I will never recommend someone making a large selection on a preseason game, and I think the best strategy is to make a select number of small to average size plays in these exhibition games. Overall, the NFL preseason can be profitable if handicapped correctly. However, using the typically strategies that the average professional handicapper will talk about isn’t going to allow for a very profitable preseason, as the lines makers fully incorporate them into making the lines. The bottom line is to figure out what the coaches want to do, then decide if a selection is worth taking after accounting for some of the other factors listed above.
 

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