NFL Oddities

Drew Brees broke Dan Marino’s 27-year-old NFL passing record of 5,084 yards. Brees has thrown for 5,087 yards in 15 games. Tom Brady can also do it this week; he has 4,897 yards and needs just 187 yards to eclipse Marino’s mark. The Steelers have lost 8 regular season games since 2010. In their next game, their defense has allowed an average of just 8.9 points per game. 13 of Cincinnati’s 15 games have been decided by 10 points or less. The Giants do not have a kick or punt return, or a rush longer than 40 yards this season.

Turnovers in the NFL

Everyone knows that protecting the football is key to winning games in the NFL, but how does it relate to covering pointspreads? The top five teams in turnover differential in the NFL are 46-25 ATS (64.8%) this season. The teams that make up the bottom five in turnover differential are 33-42 ATS (44%) heading into the last regular season week of 2011.

Nowhere to Run

Earlier this season, we talked about how NFL teams that can stop the run are typically successful both SU and ATS. As we head into the final week of the regular season, 7 teams have managed to hold their opponents to less than 100 rushing yards per game. Those teams are a combined 56-42-7 ATS (57.1%). The top three rush defenses are the 49’ers, Ravens, and Dolphins. They are a combined 27-15-3 ATS (64.3%).

Just Win and Cover in the NFL

NFL teams that won SU last week went 13-3 ATS (81.3%). That brings the season total to 178-36-8 ATS (83.1%) so far this season. Thorough handicapping can help you identify those teams that are winners each week, adding money to your bankroll.