Steve Merril
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Steve Merril is considered one of the best sports analysts in the nation. He credits his success to employing a variety of different handicapping techniques such as statistical analysis, trends and systems, and fundamentals such as matchups and emotion. By relying on numerous handicapping methods, Steve continues to beat the pointspread on a consistent basis in both college and pro football, basketball, baseball, and auto racing.
Steve was the first person to ever win the prestigious $100,000 Insiders Handicapping Invitational and his unique knowledge and understanding of the gaming industry is what separates him from other handicappers. Steve has spent the past 15 years studying the odds and probabilities associated with all forms of gambling such as poker, casino games, and even the stock market. Steve has transferred this unique knowledge and understanding of statistics and probabilities into the sports world, which has enabled him to win on a consistent basis.
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PREVIOUS FIVE DAYS' PICKS
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -118 Chicago White Sox
Loss
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Chicago’s seven game winning streak was snapped last night as they lost to Detroit 9-1. But Chicago should bounce back strong as they have the pitching edge in Wednesday night's game against the Tigers. Detroit’s Jeremy Bonderman is 2-3 with a 6.22 ERA since the All-Star break. He has faced the White Sox twice this season and split those outings. Overall, the Tigers starter is 6-11 with a 4.81 ERA in 18 career starts against the White Sox. AJ Pierzynski (12-34), Mark Teahen (11-27), Omar Vizquel (6-22), Manny Ramirez (7-22), and Alexei Ramirez (3-9) all hit Bonderman well. If Paul Konerko plays, he also has good numbers against Bonderman going 11 for 38 with five home runs. The White Sox are 5-2 this year in Detroit against the Tigers. Chicago is also 39-34 on the road where they are hitting nearly .270 as a team.
John Danks is a road warrior for Chicago. He's 6-3 with a 3.81 ERA in 13 starts away from Chicago this season. The lefty has faced the Tigers once this year and gave up just one hit in seven innings of work. Jhonny Peralta (6-29), Brandon Inge (4-18), Miguel Cabrera (4-16), Ryan Raburn (1-13), Johnny Damon (1-6), Brennan Boesch (0-3), and Austin Jackson (0-3) all have terrible numbers against Danks. As a team, Detroit is just 22-18 against left handed starters and 28-30 in the division. On the road, Chicago's bullpen has an ERA slightly over 3.00 as a unit and they’ve been quite an asset this season. Chicago holds the pitching and hitting edge in this game so we expect them to get a solid road win tonight.
Play WHITE SOX (-) (action).
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 8.5/-105 Over
Win
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Pittsburgh has a chance to sweep the Braves with a win on Wednesday night. Atlanta is suddenly reeling after losing five of their last six games. They'll turn to Derek Lowe who missed his last start due to right elbow discomfort. Lowe has a bone chip that has proved troublesome for the 37 year old right hander. The righty is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts giving up 12 runs and 19 hits in 16 innings pitched. The Pirates hit Lowe well with Andrew McCutchen (3-9), Ryan Doumit (2-7), John Bowker (2-7), Garrett Jones (2-5), Ronny Cedeno (1-30, Delwyn Young (2-3), and Neil Walker (1-3) all having success. The Pirates have gone Over the total in seven of their last 12 games.
Zach Duke has struggled this season for the Pirates. He's 7-12 with a 5.24 ERA in 24 starts. The lefty is 0-1 with a 5.11 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this season. Almost every hitter in the Braves lineup hits Duke well. Some of the better numbers against the lefty belong to Martin Prado (9-19), Matt Diaz (6-14), David Ross (6-13), Nate McLouth (4-10), Rick Ankiel (5-8), Brian McCann (3-8), and Jason Heyward (2-3). Duke is backed by a Pittsburgh bullpen that has an ERA near 4.60 this season while blowing 14 saves overall. Both offenses should have plenty of success against the starting pitchers which means we expect a high-scoring game tonight between the Braves and Pirates.
Play OVER the total.
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 9.5/-113 Over
Win
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The Phillies could be playing for first place in the N.L. East if they win and the Braves lose on Tuesday. They'll face Florida’s Chris Volstad who is 5-5 with a 5.76 ERA in 13 road starts this season. He's a mixed bag giving up six runs in five innings to the Nationals which came after giving up one run and six hits in eight innings pitched against Atlanta. Volstad is 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA in three starts against the Phillies this season. In his last road start against Philadelphia, he gave up six runs and eight hits in four innings of work. Ryan Howard (9-20), Jimmy Rollins (7-19), Raul Ibanez (8-16), Carlos Ruiz (6-15), Wilson Valdez (5-12), Placido Polanco (2-6), Domonic Brown (1-3), and Ben Francisco (1-2) all hit the Marlins starter well. The Phillies are averaging almost five runs per game as a team, and they'll face a Marlins bullpen that might be a little tired after their doubleheader on Monday.
Joe Blanton is 6-6- with a 5.25 ERA and 15 Overs in 23 starts this season. Blanton is coming off a bad outing in Colorado where he gave up six runs and 10 hits in 4.3 innings of work. He's facing the Marlins for the first time this season. Overall, he's 4-2 with a 3.44 against Florida in six career starts. Emilio Bonifacio (4-14), Hanley Ramirez (3-10), Cameron Maybin (4-10), and Chad Tracy (4-5) all hit Blanton well. The Marlins have scored at least four runs or more in three straight games and in five of their last six games overall. They are averaging over 4.5 runs per game on the road this season. We expect both offenses to dominate this game making it a high-scoring slugfest.
Play OVER the total.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -134 Washington Nationals
Loss
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A pair of rookies will be making their first career starts on Tuesday night in Washington. Dillon Gee makes the start for the Mets. He was 13-8 with a 4.96 ERA in 28 starts in AAA. Gee struck out 165 batters while walking 41. He also gave up 174 hits and 23 homers in 161.1 innings pitched. Gee also gave up three runs or more in four of his last five outings. All of those outings ended before a full seven innings. This means a poor Mets bullpen will be in play here after giving up loads of runs yesterday. Washington has scored five runs or more in five straight games and in six of their last seven games overall.
Yunesky Maya makes the start for the Nationals. He was 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in five starts in the minor leagues. His last two starts came in AAA where he gave up two runs and eight hits in 10.1 innings of work. Maya was a heralded Cuban pick-up for Washington. He'll face a Mets team that has seemingly given up on the season. They've lost six of eight games on their current 10-game road trip. Their record on the road is 28-46 and they are just 24-32 in the division. In a battle of rookie starters, we give the edge to Washington as their lineup and team as a whole is in much better current form than New York.
Play NATIONALS (-) (action).
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies (MLB) - 8:40 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -125 Colorado Rockies
Win
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Colorado has dominated the Reds in Coors Field by winning seven of their last eight match-ups. They'll hope righty Jhoulys Chacin continues his hot pitching tonight. He's 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts giving up just two earned runs and 12 hits in 20 innings of work. Reds hitters are just 1 for 9 against him in his career. Cincinnati has lost three of their first four games on their current road trip, and they are simply not in good current form right now.
Johnny Cueto makes the start for the Reds. He's 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA in his last three starts. The last time he made a start away from Cincinnati he gave up five runs and five hits in three innings pitched against the Dodgers. Cueto faced the Rockies way back in 2008 going only three innings while giving up one run. Miguel Olivo (1-3) and Jason Giambi (1-1) have the only hits against the Reds starter. Colorado is now 44-22 at home where they are hitting over .300 as a team. Colorado has won four straight games and seven of their last 10 games overall. The Reds bullpen has an ERA over 4.00 on the road this season. We expect Colorado to continue their domination over Cincinnati as they get a solid home win tonight.
Play ROCKIES (-) (action).
Monday, September 06, 2010
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (MLB) - 1:05 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -107 Washington Nationals
Win
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Washington returns home after winning a road series while the Mets head into Washington as losers of five of their seven games so far on their current road trip. New York’s Mike Pelfrey doesn't like pitching on the road. He's 5-5 with a 4.87 ERA in 12 starts away from New York this season. He took a loss in Atlanta after giving up four runs and nine hits in five innings of work. Pelfrey has faced the Nationals twice this season with both of those games in New York. In 11.7 innings, the Mets starter gave up six runs and 11 hits. Ian Desmond (4-8) and Pudge Rodriguez (2-3) have good numbers against Pelfrey. Washington has scored 41 runs in their last six games. They are hitting over .300 as a team over their last eight games and they return home where they smack out 4.1 runs per game. The Mets bullpen has an ERA over 4.40 on the road and they’ve lost 17 games this season.
Jordan Zimmermann's second start was a lot better then his first. The Nationals starter gave up one hit while striking out nine Marlins in six innings of work. Unfortunately for him, Washington was shutout so he was given a no-decision. The righty pitched well against the Mets last year as he gave up one run in 5.3 innings of work last April. The Mets are 28-45 on the road this season where they are hitting right around .240 as a team. They'll face a Nationals bullpen that is 17-7 with a 3.27 ERA this season at home. Washington is in better current form right now so we’ll look for their momentum to continue here as they get a solid home win this afternoon.
Play NATIONALS (-) (action).
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) - 1:05 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -136 Toronto Blue Jays
Win
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The Rangers head to Toronto after they were swept by the Twins in Minnesota. Texas is 2-4 so far on their current 10-game road trip. Tommy Hunter gets the start for Texas. He's 5-2 with a 4.29 ERA in eight road starts this season. In his past seven starts, he has a 5.89 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. Hunter has faced the Blue Jays twice in his career and he has giving up 10 runs and 13 hits over 12 innings pitched. Lyle Overbay (3-5) and Jose Molina (1-2) have the best numbers against the Rangers starter. Toronto is 36-29 at home where they average 4.9 runs per game. They are 5-1 against the Rangers this season and 3-0 against them at home.
Toronto’s Ricky Romero is 11-8 with a 3.60 ERA in 27 starts this season. The lefty has had his most success against the Rangers this season. Romero is 1-0 in two starts against Texas giving up one run and 10 hits in 16 innings of work. Last year, he lost a 1-0 game to the Rangers in Arlington after giving up just one run and five hits in 6.3 innings pitched. Michael Young (1-9), Elvis Andrus (0-8), Matt Treanor (0-6), Ian Kinsler (0-3), Taylor Teagarden (0-3), and Julio Borbon (0-3) all struggle with Romero. Texas is 32-35 on the road and just 15-21 in daytime games. We expect Toronto’s domination of Texas to continue here as they get a solid home win this afternoon.
Play BLUE JAYS (-) (action).
Maryland vs. Navy (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-108 Maryland
Win
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This game will be played at MT&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore so it is not a home game for Navy. Despite being from the same state, you cannot call this a rivalry game because the last time these two teams played was back in 2005. Coming into 2010, expectations are low for Maryland and high for Navy, and because of that, this pointspread has been inflated a couple of points too high. When Navy plays big-name schools from BCS conferences, they are more often than not installed as underdogs. In fact, Navy has been an underdog in 13 consecutive games in this situation dating back to the 2007 season. So to see them laying this big of a price is very unusual, even though they are facing a Maryland team coming off a 2-10 campaign.
While not much is expected from the Terrapins this year, they may actually be a little better than most people realize. They are a young team, but they were much younger last year as they only had 9 starters back compared to 12 this year. And they actually played in some competitive games in 2009 as five of their ten losses came by 7 points or less. And for such a young team to be in that many close games is definitely a positive sign, and something they can build off of for this year. If Maryland just takes natural progression steps forward, there’s no reason why they can’t play in competitive games once again this year.
Navy had their seventh consecutive winning season after going 10-4 in 2009. And a lot is expected this year as they return 13 starters from that team which is the most they’ve had since 2006. The Midshipmen run a triple option attack which has proven to be a difficult offense to stop. But Maryland has had all summer to get ready for this game, and Navy’s usual edge of teams only having a week to prepare is negated here. The Terrapins also have a strong group of linebackers which is key in defending the triple option so that is another good sign for Maryland. The service academies have always performed much better as underdogs, and Navy is no different. Under head coach Ken Niumatalolo, Navy is just 3-5 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons with 3 of those 5 wins coming in overtime by 6, 3, and 3 points. Since Navy is in an unfamiliar role, we’ll take the generous points here with a Maryland team that is looking to prove their doubters wrong.
Play MARYLAND (+).
Boise State vs. Virginia Tech (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -1/-104 Virginia Tech
Loss
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This game will be played at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland so it is not a home game for Virginia Tech. This is the best match-up of Week 1 as these two teams are legitimate national title contenders. Boise St comes into this year off an unbeaten (14-0) season in 2009, and with 20 of their 22 starters returning from that team, expectations are extremely high for the Broncos. Virginia Tech had their typical 10-win season in 2009, but with just 12 starters returning, the Hokies have their skeptics. But for a program that just reloads talent year in and year out, there’s really no reason to be questionable on Virginia Tech.
Can Boise St run the table again? It’s highly unlikely. The Broncos played an extremely weak schedule last year and everything broke their way. Boise went 13-0 back in 2006, but they followed that perfect season with a 10-3 year in 2007. And all three of those losses came on the road. Boise has a huge homefield advantage with their blue turf, but this team has not been as dominant away from home, especially when they play talented teams like Virginia Tech. And tonight’s game is when they are most vulnerable because of the opponent, and the fact that they opened as the favorite in this game has added more fuel to Virginia Tech’s fire.
Virginia Tech has been waiting for this game all summer long. Now every team can’t wait for their season opener, but the Hokies have had a chip on their shoulder since July. The players received an e-mail from the coaching staff informing them that oddsmakers had pegged Boise State as the favorite. Getting that e-mail just ‘makes you more eager to play this first game,’ said Tech's quarterback Tyrod Taylor. While the line has since moved in Virginia Tech’s direction, the fact that the players have had it implanted that they are the underdogs here still makes it meaningful motivation. We feel Virginia Tech is the better team anyway, and since we don’t think Boise St will repeat last year’s record, we’ll play the more talented team in this game tonight.
Play VIRGINIA TECH (-).
Sunday, September 05, 2010
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) - 1:35 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -118 Washington Nationals
Win
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A trip to the minors hasn't helped Charlie Morton so far this season. The Pirates righty gave up eight runs and nine hits in 3.3 innings pitched to the Milwaukee Brewers his last time out. The loss in that game moved Morton to 1-10 with a 10.03 ERA on the season. He's 1-3 with a 5.68 ERA in four home starts; Morton took a loss against the Nationals last year in Pittsburgh. Despite losing three of their last four games, the Nationals have broken out the lumber scoring 24 runs in those games combined. Washington is 4-1 against the Pirates this season. Morton is backed by a Pittsburgh bullpen that has an ERA right around 3.80 at home.
Washington’s Jason Marquis has suddenly discovered what made him a successful pitcher in the past. Marquis has given up just five runs over his last three starts picking up his first win in his last time out against Florida. Andy LaRoche (2-16), Chris Snyder (2-8), John Bowker (1-6), Delwyn Young (0-5), and Garrett Jones (0-3) have poor numbers against the Nationals starter. Washington's bullpen has an ERA right around 4.00 on the road. They'll face a Pirates team that is just 12-25 in daytime games while hitting just .237 as a team in those games. Washington holds the pitching and hitting edges here so we’ll back the road team this afternoon.
Play NATIONALS (-) (action).
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals (MLB) - 2:10 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -120 Detroit Tigers
Loss
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The Tigers have won three straight games and they can sweep the Royals with a win on Sunday afternoon. They'll face a pitcher that they absolutely dominate. Kyle Davies is 2-7 with a 6.09 ERA in 10 career starts against the Tigers. Davies has split two outings against Detroit this season, but he has given up 10 runs and 19 hits overall. Davies is 0-2 with a 5.31 ERA in his last three starts as he has given up 29 hits over that span. The list is long of hitters who smack Davies around and it includes Miguel Cabrera (9-31), Gerald Laird (5-17), Jhonny Peralta (8-14), Ryan Raburn (5-11), Austin Jackson (2-4), Brennan Boesch (2-3), Will Rhymes (2-3), and Alex Avila (1-2). Detroit has scored 25 runs during their current three game winning streak. The Royals bullpen is now 10-12 at home with an ERA near 4.60.
On the other end of the spectrum is Detroit’s Armando Galarraga who is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in six starts against the Royals. He gave up one run and five hits in 6.3 innings pitched against them on August 25th. In his last 19.3 innings of work, the Tigers starter has given up just three runs. Kansas City batters are 19 for 81 against him with Mike Aviles (1-13), Josh Fields (1-9), Mitch Maier (1-9), Yuniesky Betancourt (1-4), and Gregor Blanco (0-3) doing the worst. The Royals are now 30-37 at home and 4-8 in their last 12 games. Since Detroit is in better current form and facing a pitcher they hit well, we expect them to get a solid road win this afternoon.
Play TIGERS (-) (action).
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) - 8:05 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -137 Los Angeles Dodgers
Loss
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Los Angeles looks to win this three-game series versus the Giants on Sunday night. Despite trailing 4-3 in the ninth inning last night, the Giants pulled out the 5-4 win, but they are still batting just .192 as a team during the past eight games. They are facing a pitcher tonight with whom they've had limited to no success against. Kuroda is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in six starts against the Giants. In two starts towards the end of last season, Kuroda gave up just three runs and nine hits in 14.3 innings of work. San Francisco hitters are 11 for 72 against Kuroda with Cody Ross (4-15) and Freddy Sanchez (2-12) providing the most hits of the group. Los Angeles' bullpen has an 3.86 ERA and 1.283 WHIP at home and they haven’t been as toxic with Broxton no longer in the closer’s role.
Jonathan Sanchez is looking for his first win against Los Angeles. He's 0-5 with a 6.25 ERA in nine career starts against the Dodgers. He has already taken a loss against them this season after giving up five runs and six hits in five innings of work. Sanchez has given up 14 runs over his last 13.6 innings pitched against this Dodgers lineup. Matt Kemp (9-20), Jamey Carroll (2-7), and Ryan Theriot (1-2) have good numbers against Sanchez. The Dodgers are 41-30 at home and 31-19 against the N.L. West. They'll face a Giants’ bullpen that has an 4.02 ERA and 1.534 WHIP on the road this season. We’ll back the home team here, especially since Sanchez has had no success against them in his career.
Play DODGERS (-) (action).
Tulsa vs. East Carolina (NCAAF) - 2:00 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -7/-105 Tulsa
Loss
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These two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions for the 2010 season. Neither team should resemble what they looked liked a season ago as Tulsa should be much improved after going 5-7 in 2009 while East Carolina should regress off their 9-5 campaign last year. While the pointspread may look a tad high based on what these teams have accomplished in the past, the reality is that the oddsmakers set this game just right with the projection of each team this season rather than setting a number based on the team’s past.
Tulsa is in their fourth year under head coach Todd Graham. He had his first losing season at Tulsa last year after winning just five games; Graham led the Hurricane to a 21-7 record in his first two seasons. But there was a reason for losing last year. Tulsa scheduled aggressively as they played Oklahoma and Boise St out of conference; two games they obviously lost. Under Graham, Tulsa comes out of the gate firing on all cylinders. Over the last three years, Tulsa has opened with a road game and they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in those games winning by 18, 23, and 24 points. With 9 starters back on offense including quarterback GJ Kinne, we expect more of the same from the Hurricane this afternoon.
East Carolina figures to regress sharply in 2010. The Pirates have won the last two Conference-USA titles, but they’ll be hard-pressed to have a winning season this year. Skip Holtz has moved on to be the head coach at South Florida, and his loss is huge for ECU. Also gone are 14 starters, and since they are revamping their offensive and defensive schemes under new head coach Ruffin McNeill, the Pirates will struggle mightily early in the season. Tulsa is in much better shape for this game, and with Graham’s history of fast starts, we expect them to get a solid road win this afternoon.
Play TULSA (-).
Houston Astros vs. Arizona D-Backs (MLB) - 4:10 PM EDT
Free Pick
Pick: Money Line: -101 Houston Astros
Win
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FREE PLAY
J.A. Happ continues to be a great acquisition for the Astros. The lefty is 4-2 with Houston and he’s coming off a complete game two hitter at home against the Cardinals. Happ has given up just 15 runs in those seven starts as an Astro. He has faced Arizona just once and he gave up two runs and three hits in six innings pitched against the Diamondbacks last season. Only Kelly Johnson (1-7), Stephen Drew (1-3), and Justin Upton (2-3) have hits against Happ. Upton is questionable for the game and he would be a big loss to the Arizona offense. Arizona is 15-23 against southpaws this season hitting just .255 against them. They are just 11-26 in daytime games as well.
We have faded Rodrigo Lopez time and time again. He's 0-1 with an 8.78 ERA over his last three starts. The righty has given up 13 runs and 25 hits over his last 13.3 innings of work. He faced Houston back in May and gave up two runs and three hits in a seven inning no-decision. Hunter Pence (3-6), Tommy Manzella (1-3), and Geoff Blum (1-2) hit Lopez well in limited at-bats. Houston has won four of their last five games and 10 of their last 13 games overall. They are hitting over .275 as a team over their last eight games. Houston will face an Arizona bullpen that blew last night's contest for the Diamondbacks. We’ll recommend a play on the Astros this afternoon since they are in good current form and facing a pitcher we like to play-against.
Saturday, September 04, 2010
Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -134 Florida Marlins
Loss
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Florida’s Josh Johnson will try for a third time this season to pick up a victory over the Braves on Saturday night. In two outings against Atlanta, Johnson has given up just two runs and nine hits yet he has zero victories. Johnson is 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 13 career starts against Atlanta. The Marlins ace is 7-2 with a 1.48 ERA in 14 home starts this season. Brian McCann (7-31), Martin Prado (4-21), Eric Hinske (1-9), Nate McLouth (1-8), Troy Glaus (1-7), Melky Cabrera (1-7), Derrek Lee (1-6), Alex Gonzalez (0-6), Omar Infante (1-5), and Matt Diaz (1-5) all struggle with Johnson. The Braves are 29-38 on the road where they are hitting just .250 as a team.
Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens is looking for his first road win of the season. He's 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA in nine outings away from Atlanta. Jurrjens gave up four runs and six hits in seven innings of work back in a July start in Florida this season. Hanley Ramirez (6-20), Dan Uggla (7-19), Emilio Bonifacio (5-10), Chad Tracy (4-7), Wes Helms (1-3), and Brad Davis (2-3) all have good numbers against Jurrjens. The Marlins have won three straight games and six of their last nine games overall. Florida holds a huge pitching edge in this game with Johnson over Jurrjens so we expect an easy win by the home team tonight.
Play MARLINS (-) (action).
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT
Free Pick
Pick: Money Line: -103 Pittsburgh Pirates
Loss
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FREE PLAY
The Pirates took game 1 of their series with the Nationals on Friday night. Tonight’s game features a pair of struggling lefties from both teams. Washington’s John Lannan is 6-6 with a 4.95 ERA in 20 starts this season. On the road, he's 4-3 with a 5.01 ERA striking out 19 while walking 25 batters. The southpaw is 0-3 with a 5.53 ERA in five starts against Pittsburgh. In an earlier start in Washington, Lannan gave up five runs and 10 hits in 4.7 innings pitched to the Pirates. Ronny Cedeno (4-12), Andy LaRoche (3-11), Lastings Milledge (4-10), Ryan Doumit (3-9), Andrew McCutchen (2-5), Jose Tabata (2-3), and Neil Walker (2-3) all hit Lannan well. Pittsburgh has won three straight games at home as they’ve found some offense scoring 38 runs in their last six games. The Nationals bullpen is 4-19 with an ERA over 4.00 this season.
Pittsburgh’s Paul Maholm hasn't been as bad at home as he has on the road. Maholm is 5-8 with a 5.44 ERA in 14 home starts. The lefty has yet to face the Nationals this season. Last year, he gave up five runs and 11 hits in 12.3 innings pitched in two outings against Washington. Adam Dunn (3-28), Wil Nieves (0-5), Nyjer Morgan (0-2), and Justin Maxwell (0-2) have poor numbers against Maholm. Washington is 23-47 on the road where they hit slightly over .240 as a team. They are 13-21 against southpaws this season. Pittsburgh's bullpen is 13-3 at home with an ERA around 3.80. Pittsburgh is in good current form right now so we expect them to get another solid home win tonight.
Utah State vs. Oklahoma (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -33.5/-107 Oklahoma
Loss
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Oklahoma is a mission team in 2010. The Sooners did not live up to their expectations last season after going just 8-5. But to be fair, the team was dealt a bad hand when Sam Bradford was knocked out for the season in their first game against BYU. Oklahoma was forced to play freshman quarterback Landry Jones the rest of the season, and while playing him instead of Bradford was correlated to Oklahoma’s 5-loss season, Landry’s experience will pay off in spades for the Sooners this season.
As a freshman, Jones actually played terrific for Oklahoma. He threw for over 3,100 yards with 26 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. Now in his second full season, Jones will improve because of his experience, and with 8 starters back on offense, Oklahoma will have one of the best scoring units in the country. And their scoring spree begins tonight against an out-classed Utah St team. The Aggies simply do not have the talent, speed, or athleticism to play with Oklahoma; this is basically a paycheck game for the visitors. And taking a woodshed beating to one of the best teams in the country will have no bearing on what Utah St hopes to accomplish once their conference games begin.
At full strength, Utah St was going to be hard-pressed to score on Oklahoma’s defense. And their difficult task is even tougher now that the Aggies will be without their two best offensive threats, running back Robert Turbin and wide receiver Stanley Morrison. And Utah St also lost a key starter on their defense, BYU transfer Matt Ah, in practice this week. This is a hurting team coming into Norman, and with 30 freshman and sophomores making the trip from Logan, this is a game that can ugly real quick. Oklahoma can name the score in this game, and since they won their first two home games last year by a combined 109-0, we expect the Sooners to make a statement here in a game they’ll cover the big pointspread rather easily.
Play OKLAHOMA (-).
Washington U vs. BYU (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 2/-107 Washington U
Loss
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Washington made huge strides last season going 5-7 after an embarrassing 0-12 season in 2008. Steve Sarkisian and his coaching staff did a phenomenal job as the Huskies improved their offense by 13 points per game and defense by 12 points per game. With 18 starters back, Washington should improve even more, especially now that they’ve got some new voices in the coaches and some confidence after last year’s success. The Huskies also have future NFL quarterback Jake Locker running the show, and Locker is a tremendous talent and a guy who can take games over. He also has a tremendous supporting cast, especially running back Chris Polk who can take a lot of pressure off of Locker.
This is also a huge game for Washington for underlying reasons. The Huskies were 0-5 on the road a season ago, and they’ve made a commitment to break that streak, and it starts in their season opener. Head coach Sarkisian simulated a true road game for his team by taking them on weekend getaway to a hotel and then busing them over to a stadium and then putting them through a game scrimmage with real game simulations. Sarkisian is also returning to Provo; he played quarterback for BYU and he is very familiar with the surroundings and he knows what to expect in the trip there tonight.
BYU has been a solid team for the last 5 seasons, but those teams had veteran quarterbacks leading them. But that is not the case this year as BYU will be running a two-quarterback system with freshman Jake Heaps taking the majority of the snaps. While Heaps comes well-regarded, he’ll be without a big piece of the BYU offense after running back Harvey Unga left the team in the spring after violating team rules. Without Unga in the backfield, Heaps loses a big safety net which is a big negative for a true freshman quarterback making his first collegiate start. Washington is the better team so we see some tremendous value in taking them as an underdog in this game tonight.
Play WASHINGTON (+).
Cincinnati U vs. Fresno State (NCAAF) - 10:00 PM EDT
Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 56.5/-105 Over
Loss
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Many believe Cincinnati’s production will drop some this season after losing head coach Brian Kelly to Notre Dame. But don’t count us in that group. New head coach Butch Jones has picked up right where Kelly has left off in the past as his work at Central Michigan attests. Jones will inherit a Cincinnati offense that will once again be potent behind quarterback Zach Collaros who stepped in admirably when Tony Pike went down with injury last year. Collaros is a duel-threat quarterback who is mighty dangerous running the Bearcats offense.
Cincinnati and Collaros have not been shy when it comes to their offensive plans for this season. ‘The spread offense that we're running under Butch Jones is a little more up-tempo than the one we ran under Brian Kelly,’ said Collaros. ‘We really want to push the tempo. As opposed to having in a million concepts, we like to run a certain number of things and we try to get them perfect. When we're on a drive and our tempo is going good there's not a defense that can really line up with us.’ We agree with Collaros, especially in tonight’s game as Fresno St’s defense is going to have their hands full with the quick, up-tempo pace of Cincinnati, especially in the first game of the season.
Fresno St was a power running team last season behind running back Ryan Mathews who is now in the NFL with the San Diego Chargers. But according to head coach Pat Hill, the Bulldogs are looking to air it out this season behind strong-armed quarterback Ryan Colburn. Hill has said that the passing game will be the ‘lead hand’ for his offense and went further into detail with this. ‘We definitely have a long-ball threat,’ Hill said. ‘We've got some speed on the perimeter and we've got some guys that can really throw the deep ball. That's always the combination you need.’ These two teams played last season and the posted total was 63. But that game had some wind and rain which hampered scoring (48 points) since the teams still combined for more than 800 yards of offense. With tonight’s total a touchdown lower, we see some great value in playing this game Over that number as we expect nothing short of a high-scoring shootout.
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Below is a free MLB play with analysis for Saturday night:
TIGERS at ROYALS (-115) – 7:10 pm ET #977-978
Not an official play, but I would rate the Tigers as a light lean tonight.
Detroit’s Rick Porcello has benefited from his time in the minor leagues. The Tigers starter has thrown a quality start in six of his last nine ... read more
NFL Game of the Day – Vikings at 49ers (-2½, 35)
By Steve Merril
Opening Line and Weather Report
The oddsmakers opened San Francisco as a 3-point home favorite earlier this week on Monday and the line later dropped to -2½ on Saturday morning. The Over/Under opened at 34½ and has risen to 35 in some locations.