Freddy Wills
19-8 This Bowl Season + 26-11 ats this season on NCAAF PODs! Today we will have a LARGE play on the Fiesta Bowl Don't MISS OUT!
"The will to win means nothing without the will to prepare"
I have been wagering on sports for eight years now. I am a former division II athlete with an undergrad in Sports Management and Masters in Business Administration. You should also know this is my real job and I claim it on my tax return. Every play I put out on the site I am betting myself.
I use a betting philosophy that is backed by betting on an underdog that has a legitimate shot at winning the game outright. Although this varies from sport to sport. I never force plays and always give you a written analysis. All of my plays must meet a certain number of requirements before I considers them as a release. This includes my free pick releases.
I use a variety of factors in my betting philosophy, such as statistical software, trend analysis, public betting %'s and other emotional advantages. This is the same strategy I used to win 64% of my College Football games in 2008.
Lastly, you must know that I bet on all of the games I recommend. When you lose I lose, something I do not take lightly. I am as competitive and determined as anyone you will meet which is why I have found success in this industry.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Robert Morris vs. Quinnipiac (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST
Free Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -4.5/-110 Quinnipiac
Loss
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East Carolina +12.5 (2-Dimes EB)
A 10 seed vs. a 7 seed should not have a spread as large as we have here! In fact the #11 seeded Tulane is +6.5 against the #5 seeded Sothern Miss. The reason we have a spread so large here is that on their home court East Carolina lost by 19 to Houston. Houston has the #1 offense in the conference USA but they also have the worst defense.
I believe in their coaches last game East Carolina will give that extra effort that gives them the cover. The key will be not turning the ball over because on every other level these two are pretty close to even. In the first match up Houston was just drilling threes at 41.7% and East Carolina defense on the road at 31.5%. I actually think theset wo teams are closer to even if they are on the road. East Carolina -7.9pts while Houston -2.6 points. The biggest differences are Houston -11.2 rebound margin and +7 turnover margin. If East Carolina can have a rebound advantage here this game stays close.
Quinnipiac -4 (1-Dime Bonus)
East Carolina vs. Houston U (NCAAB) - 1:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 12/-101 East Carolina
Loss
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East Carolina +12.5 (2-Dimes EB)
A 10 seed vs. a 7 seed should not have a spread as large as we have here! In fact the #11 seeded Tulane is +6.5 against the #5 seeded Sothern Miss. The reason we have a spread so large here is that on their home court East Carolina lost by 19 to Houston. Houston has the #1 offense in the conference USA but they also have the worst defense.
I believe in their coaches last game East Carolina will give that extra effort that gives them the cover. The key will be not turning the ball over because on every other level these two are pretty close to even. In the first match up Houston was just drilling threes at 41.7% and East Carolina defense on the road at 31.5%. I actually think theset wo teams are closer to even if they are on the road. East Carolina -7.9pts while Houston -2.6 points. The biggest differences are Houston -11.2 rebound margin and +7 turnover margin. If East Carolina can have a rebound advantage here this game stays close.
Quinnipiac -4 (1-Dime Bonus)
ST John's vs. Marquette (NCAAB) - 2:30 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 4/-101 ST John's
Win
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St. Johns +4.5 Legendz (3.3Dime Play) StJ +170 1-Dime
I really like this play I think St. John's stays hot against Marquette which couldn't have been a better match up for them in the 2nd round. Marquette never seems to really blow teams out down the stretch and their strength of three point shooting has been limited as of late.
This is like a home game for St. Johns as they typically play 7 to 8 games at MSG a year. They looked awfully good against Uconn yesterday on both sides of the ball playing defense and forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. St. John's is much more athletic in my opinion and could win this game out right just as they shown in the first match up between these two teams which was an OT loss by St. Johns 63-61. In that game they held Marquette to 27.8% shooting from beyond the perimeter. If they can do that again they will win this game out right. I think Marquette shows why the coaches picked them to be the 12th place team before the season started.
Toronto Raptors vs. Sacramento Kings (NBA) - 10:05 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -1/-104 Sacramento Kings
Win
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Kings +100 Sportsinteraction (4-Dime POD)
I really like the Kings in their home building tonight. They have really been playing better ball since the All star game and have a lot of young talent that is only getting better. The Raptors are coming off a huge emotional loss last night as they fell to the Lakers at the buzzer. Now they travel on 0 days rest to Sacramento to play a late night game. It's a tough situation for a team from Canada. The first day of traveling teams generally don't feel tired, but the 2nd day with 0 days rest is when it really hits them. I think we have a line that is nice because the general public thinks of the Raptors as a much better team, but the talent on the Kings is solid especially on home. I think the Kings will win this game. Toronto just does not have the defense to pull out a win on the road especially on 0 days rest where they are 3-11 ATS this year and 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27.
Utah Jazz vs. Detroit Pistons (NBA) - 7:35 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 6/-108 Detroit Pistons
Loss
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Pistons +6.5 Sportsinteraction(3-Dime POD RU)
Jazz has been red hot and the public has been all over them, but I think it's a little too late for the public and definitely not on the road against the Pistons. Pistons getting +6 points against a Jazz team that has not always been the best on the road. The Jazz are on 0 days rest where they scored 132 points last night and now I feel they are due for a let down here tonight. While the Pistons are 7-5-1 ATS on 2 days rest and should be fresh to give their best defensive effort. Utah could also be looking ahead to the Bucks a much challenging opponent record wise.
Seton Hall vs. Notre Dame (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -2/-102 Notre Dame
Win
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Notre Dame -2 (3.5 Dime POD)
Notre Dame has really played some solid basketball down the stretch and now they get Harangody back as another offensive weapon. Seton Hall really got their money's worth winning 109-106 in an up and down battle tested game against Providence. That up and down type of game won't translate over on 0 days rest against Notre Dame a team with some extra rest. Seton Hall did beat Notre Dame, but they were at home and they won by just 3 and that is likely why they are just +2 dogs, but I think Notre Dame rolls here tonight.
Cal Irvine vs. Cal Poly S.L.O. (NCAAB) - 11:25 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: 117 Cal Poly S.L.O.
Win
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Cal Poly +125 (2-Dime Bonus)
Cal Poly will have revenge in an OT loss they suffered in the last game of the season against UCI. Looking at these two closer and you find that they are very much similar. However, in the two match ups Cal Poly by far outplayed them holding UCI to 39.3% from the field while they shot 46.7%. They were +4 on the offensive glass and +15 overall in rebounds. While UCI did get to the FT line 20 more times Cal Poly shot 79.3%. Poly was solid on the road this year at 5-12, while UCI was 3-10 away. While UCI has the better overall record they faced a weaker strength of schedule and are 6-10 in conference while Poly was 7-9. In my opinion the wrong team is favored.
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Wednesday’s NBA schedule is loaded with 12 games for us to look at. However, there are a select few that involved both match ups of teams with better than .500 records. The Grizzlies and Hornets will play in New Orleans in hopes of staying in the playoff race while our game of the day will be between the Thunder and Denver Nuggets.
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Hornets (-1.5, 203)
... read more
I saw myself going 4-0-1 ATS and picking up a nifty profit of +9.71 in profit on sports picks yesterday including a huge win on the Mavericks against the Lakers.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (+2.5)
It’s about time.
The Cleveland Cavaliers (44-14, 28-29-1 ... read more
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Freddy Wills Release Times
For weekday's you can expect to see my premium picks added between 3-4pm ET for 7pm games. For Free picks check by noon ET!
Freddy Wills Rating System
I believe in strict money management. If you do not have this you are not investing your money you are gambling your money! I personally do not believe in doubling up after a loss or chasing money that was lost. If you follow my strict money management process and rating policy you will succeed. Personally my unit is 1DIME or $1,000. You may see me tell you that I'm up 50 dimes for the week or 50 units.
Rating Policy:
1DIME or 1-unit = Free Plays
2DIMES or 2-unit = Action Bets
3DIMES or 3-unit = Best Bets (Play of the Day, POD)
4DIMES or 4-unit = Top Bets (Play of the Week, POW)
5DIMES or 5-unit = Super Bet (Play of the Month or year)
Freddy Wills Money Management
The Key to success:
The Key to success I believe is to follow a strict set of rules before making a play. Never let your emotions get the best of you and do not deviate from this set of rules. For me I have had continued success under my own strict set of rules.
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Freddy Wills
