August 24th, 2009. NL Outlook. Beginning Monday we have four teams competing for the NL wild card. Phillies have a 6.5 game lead over Atlanta and 7.5 over Florida with 41 games remaining for the Phillies. The Cardinals have taken full control of the Central leading the Cubs by 8 games with 36 remaining on the Cardinals schedule. Dodgers, once big leaders in their division are now just 3.5 games ahead of the surging Rockies with 36 games left on the Dodger schedule. Based on probability analysis from my Ai Simulator – a multi-layered neural network - and their remaining schedule the Dodgers have a 98.4% probability of making the playoffs; Phillies 90.5%, Cardinals 94.4%, Rockies 71%, Braves 20%, Giants 12%, and Marlins just 5.5%. Let’s take a look at their schedules this week and pitching probables. SF finishes a road series with the Rockies in what is nearly a must win game for them to try and catch the Rockies. The Rockies truly solidified their wild card lead by defeating Lincecum Sunday., but as you you will shortly see, it is far from won. Phillies play the Mets and Lee is on the hill so it would be reasonable to expect another Phillies win. Philly then travels to Pittsburgh for 3 games and then 3 games at home against the Braves. Speaking of the Braves, they need to start a win streak today and have a good opponent in SD beginning on Tuesday. SD for 3 games and then the big must win series against the Phillies. Braves will face Martinez, Lee, and Blaton, so again reasonable to expect a Phillies series win and the Braves essentially eliminated from the wild card race. Florida may get a chance at a run having the lowly Mets come visiting for 3 games beginning Tuesday. Wednesday’s games sees an very impressive Johnson starting against a very Unimpressive Pelfry. Easily see Florida winning all 3 games heading into a weekend series against SD, who will be already road weary. Yes, Florida could win 5 of 6 games. Beginning Tuesday is certainly the marquee series in the NL with the Dodgers traveling to face the Rockies. Tuesday’s game features Kershaw against Hamel. Wednesday’s matchup pits Wolf against Fogg, and then Thursday sees Padilla against DeLa Rosa. Yes, the same Vincente Padilla that was let go by the Texas Rangers so the Dodgers could easily see that lead squeezed to 2.5 games entering the weekend. All is not lost though for Dodger fans as after the Dodgers series, the Rockies travel to SF for a 3 game set that will see them face Lincecum –with revenge - , Zito, and Cain. Rockies will be fortunate to be 3-3 this week. Arizona will come to the Giants starting Tuesday with Haren going against Cain in a marquee game. The Wild wild west is back for sure in the NL. Current Wild card standings are led by Colorado, with SF 3 back, Atlanta, 4 back, and Florida 5 back. Based on the aforementioned projections and reasonable expectations this time next Monday could see the standings as follows: Colorado leading with SF just 1 game back, Marlins 3 games back, and Braves 4 games back. So, look for the wild card race to get even tighter providing for an even more drama as the we come down the home stretch.
 

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