The first lesson to take away is that teams have not dramatically changed from a season ago. Everyone was quick to praise some teams and bash others after just the first week of this season. Teams like Oklahoma and Florida were criticized and questioned by the supposed experts on television, as well as a wide percentage of sports bettors. However, what people seem to continually fail to realize is that these teams recruit the best athletes across the country year after year. They simply have better players than almost every other team. Just because they don’t attempt to blowout a very weak team doesn’t mean they aren’t one of the best teams in the country. Meanwhile, a team like Colorado has been garbage for the last several years. Why would bettors think that would dramatically change this year? Yes they have several starters back from last year, but those players weren’t any good last year either. Why would they all of a sudden raise their talent level and be able to beat good teams? Bettors need to have more foresight and look at the bigger picture instead of just being so narrow minded from week to week. College football programs usually take about two to three years to undergo a significant turnaround. Look at how many years it’s taken Bo Pelini at Nebraska to legitimately turn that program around. If a coach stays at a school and has not shown any kind of improvement over two or three years then it is unlikely that they are going to get better as well, even if their entire team is back. Weeks 1 and 2 illustrated how important schedules and motivational factors are in college football. A majority of the teams that had look ahead games did not play well in the first week but responded well in the next week. Better teams didn’t want to reveal their playbook and played a very mediocre brand of offense and defense. Bettors have to realize that these players are 18-22 year old kids and are prone to looking ahead or not getting up for games much more than the average NFL player. They tend to think with their emotions more often. A perfect example of this thought is Virginia Tech losing outright to James Madison after coming off of a very emotional and tough loss to Boise State on Monday. They also had only a few days to get ready for this game, while James Madison probably spent an extensive amount of weeks preparing for the Hokies. The next thing to learn is that there is an extreme amount of parity in college football now, even among some of the FCS teams like James Madison, South Dakota State, and Villanova, who won or came close to winning against FBS teams. This is more prevalent with the average to below average teams in each conference. Teams like Texas, Florida, USC, Oklahoma, and Ohio State are routinely able to get the very best recruits in the country. However, the rest of the schools have balanced out the quality of recruits over the last few years. This means teams almost every team in a given conference has close to the same quality of recruits. That means that underdogs who are roughly on the same talent level as their opponent are going to be tremendous at covering point spreads this season. The final thing that I took from the first two weeks is that offenses are becoming higher scoring than the public and odds makers are realizing. I’m not talking about games with totals in the 70’s, but instead games with totals in the high 40’s and 50’s. Games like Duke/Wake Forest, Hawaii/Army, Oregon/Tennessee, and Syracuse/Washington all went over the total. I’m not saying that a majority of games went over the total but instead I’m pointing out a good niche to take advantage of. Last season I had tremendous success with betting games with totals around 40-50 points over the total. I look for games that have two relatively average teams with offenses that are considered average by the public yet can put up points. The key is to find games that each team will be matching each other score for score because that’s what causes there to be those extra late scores in the 4th quarter.
 

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