There is no road map, no chart or no tell-all guide. The Big East Conference football bowl picture is a muddy mess. One thing certain is that TCU, a powerhouse on the collegiate scene for the last two years, will be a member of the conference next fall.
The only bowl certainty this year is that if Connecticut wins its regular season finale at South Florida on Saturday, the Huskies will get the league’s BCS bid. But Randy Edsall’s team may not be the most desired, as its 7-4 record is a notch behind West Virginia at 8-3.
One possible picture shows UConn meeting the Big 12 champion in the Fiesta Bowl. Another possibility has them (if they earn the BCS bid) meeting the ACC champion in the Orange Bowl.
The Mountaineers could get the BCS bid if UConn stumbles. But look at the standings. Connecticut, West Virginia and Pittsburgh all are 4-2 in league play and all have games on Saturday. Right behind is Syracuse, 4-3 and done in league play. South Florida is 4-3. There could be a 5-way tie for the conference title after the smoke clears Saturday.
And Notre Dame – at 7-5 – could be a determining factor in where the Big East teams not in the BCS play for the holidays. The Champs Sports Bowl, an attractive upper tier bowl, has its eyes on the Irish, but probably would not eliminate a 9-3 West Virginia outfit.
Pittsburgh, despite being crushed by the Mountaineers last Saturday, 35-10, still could be in the BCS bowl picture if UConn and West Virginia lose Saturday.
It all comes down to this Saturday. Here’s a look at the games on tap.
Connecticut at SOUTH FLORIDA
It’d déjà vu all over again. Skip Holtz, a former head man at Connecticut, now coaches the Bulls and has them at 7-4. South Florida, with an upset over UConn, becomes very attractive to some bowls.
Randy Edsall, however, is the all-time leader in victories at Connecticut (73-69) and hopes he can ride the strong running game of junior Jordan Todman to earn the BCS berth. Todman, with 148.1 rushing yards per game, ranks second in the nation in that category. Sophomore Nick Williams gives the Huskies a serious return threat. The sophomore leads the nation with a a 42.09 average per kickoff return.
Fresh from a 23-20 victory over Miami last week, the Holtz-led Bulls would like nothing more than to ruin Connecticut’s BCS party. Freshman quarterback Bobby Eveld may hold the key to the Bulls chances. A week ago he replaced the injured B.J. Daniels and led the Bulls to the game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter. Then, after Miami kicked a field goal in overtime, Eveld led South Florida’s touchdown drive for the victory.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: South Florida stands 4-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Connecticut including a perfect 3-for-3 in its own backyard.
KEY ANGLES: South Florida is a dismal 6-15 SU and 5-16 ATS when matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .601 or better including a shocking 1-10 ATS in this role favored.
Connecticut is a profitable 13-5 ATS in its last 18 priced as an underdog including a rewarding 10-2 ATS in this set matched up against a foe that enters with momentum off a straight up win.
Rutgers at WEST VIRGINIA
Three of the last four meetings between these two have been decided by a touchdown or less. That may not be the case this weekend. The Scarlet Knights are reeling, having lost five straight and now standing at 4-7, 1-5.
Coach Bill Stewart’s Mountaineers cracked the Top 25 again and own an 8-3, 4-2 mark heading into the home finale Saturday.
Sophomore quarterback Geno Smith completed three touchdown passes and threw for 212 yards in the dismantling of Pittsburgh a week ago. His 145.1 quarterback efficiency rating is tops in the Big East. But West Virginia is not a one-side squad. The defense has allowed only 12.6 points per game and is giving up only 87.1 yards per contest on the ground.
The loss to Connecticut earlier in the season now comes back to haunt the Mountaineers.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: West Virginia is a dominant 27-3 SU and 18-11 ATS in this series including a nifty 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS if Rutgers sports a won/loss percentage less than .375.
KEY ANGLES: West Virginia is a soft 9-15 ATS at home checking in off back-to-back SU and ATS wins including a horrendous 1-10 ATS in this set battling an opponent that arrives off a straight up loss.
Rutgers is a rewarding 18-8-1 ATS in its last 27 priced as a road underdog.
Pittsburgh at CINCINNATI
Wow – consider this. A year ago, the Bearcats were very close to competing in the BCS national championship game. This year they are 4-7, 2-4 and are going nowhere for the holiday season.
But Cincy knows an upset over Pittsburgh would deprive them not only of a possible BCS bowl, but any hope for an upper-level bowl matchup.
Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers suffered a nasty blow with a lopsided loss to West Virginia and needs a positive showing this Saturday. Sophomore Dion Lewis continues to be a force. He has now gained 2,494 yards in his two seasons with Pittsburgh. And quarterback Tino Suneri, another sophomore, is really coming into his own. In the last seven games, Suneri has thrown for a 67% completion rate, gaining 1,629 yards through the air and adding 11 touchdowns.
SERIES TRENDS OF NOTE: Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU and ATS in its last four meetings with Cincinnati but has dropped its last two against the Bearcats.
KEY ANGLES: Cincinnati is a dismal 8-15-1 ATS in its last 24 priced as a home favorite and matched up against an opponent that arrives off a straight up loss.
Pittsburgh has rebounded well coming off a blemish posting a respectable 12-2 SU and 9-4 ATS record in its next game including a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS on foreign soil in this role.
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