After over four months of basketball, the Final Four is finally here. Villanova, North Carolina, Michigan State, and Connecticut all experienced ups and downs throughout the season on their way to Detroit. Let’s take a look at their past performances to see if there is anything that may help in handicapping these final games. North Carolina started the season as the #1 team in the country, but they didn’t have that top spot for many weeks in February and March. However, the Tar Heels were arguably the best team in the country during that time span. They only lost two games in February and March, with one coming in overtime at Maryland and the other one coming in the ACC tournament to Florida State. North Carolina didn’t bring their best effort in that tournament loss. Roy Williams wanted his team rested for the NCAA tournament, and they were without star guard Ty Lawson. Meanwhile, I feel that there was some value on North Carolina heading into the tournament because the public was raving about how good the Big East was while overlooking the Tar Heels. What is most notable about their season though is the fact that all four of their losses came down to the wire. North Carolina was never significantly outplayed by their opponents, regardless of motivational or injury disadvantages. Three of their four losses came down to the final shot and all four losses were by single digits. Villanova is probably the most surprising team left in the tournament. They played well all season, but no one thought that they would make it this far. The Wildcats only had one loss through November and December, but they did not play well in a neutral court loss to Texas. They were also an unimpressive 4-3 in the month of January. However, those losses did come against Marquette, Louisville, and Connecticut. Villanova was able to finish the regular season on an 11-2 run, with their only defeats coming in letdown losses to Georgetown and at West Virginia. One interesting, and lesser discussed, note about the Wildcats is the quality of opponents that they have defeated in the tournament. They have very impressive wins over Pittsburgh, UCLA, and Duke. In fact, they absolutely dominated the Bruins and Blue Devils in the 2nd halves of those games. Their grinding win against the Panthers shows their toughness and resiliency. Overall, Villanova had a very good team coming into this season, but they also turned things on at just the right time. Michigan State has played well all season, but they sprinkled enough losses throughout to keep from being considered for a #1 spot in the polls. They were only significantly outplayed in three games all season. The Spartans had very poor performances against Maryland, North Carolina, and at Purdue. Interestingly enough the Spartans were blown out at Ford Field by the Tar Heels in a featured non-conference game earlier this season. Meanwhile, their losses against Maryland, Northwestern, and Penn State were simply because of a lack of effort. They have played well both at home and on the road. Their 10-1 straight up record on the road this season is tied for the best in college basketball. Another interesting note about Michigan State is that they had to deal with injury problems all season. Overall, the Spartans are a tough and very deep team. They have about eight to nine players that see extended minutes during the game. Their downfall though is their occasional lack of scoring. One of the biggest factors though is head coach Tom Izzo. He always puts his teams in position to succeed in the tournament, and he is very tough to beat with extended time to prepare. The final team left to review is the Connecticut Huskies. They have been at, or near, the top of the polls all season. This team combines size, athleticism, and toughness. What is impressive about this team is that they only had one real letdown game all year. That loss came at the start of conference play to Georgetown. They could never figure out Pittsburgh, losing twice to the Panthers, both at home and on the road. The Huskies also overcame an injury to star guard Jerome Dyson back in early February. His injury was thought to be a season killer to the title hopes of UConn, but they have been able to play well in his absence. Connecticut’s strengths are obviously their size and athleticism. They also have a dominant inside presence with Hasheem Thabeet. However, their weakness is a lack of depth. Only six guys get the bulk of the playing time, so tired legs are always a concern for coach Jim Calhoun. The Huskies also have a big advantage with Calhoun. He is a proven winner in the biggest games, as his teams have an excellent Final Four record. Overall, the Final Four will feature two excellent match-ups of teams which have overcome ups and downs this season. They all have strengths and weaknesses though, so it will be interesting to see which teams step up and get to the championship game.
 

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