A few weeks ago I had a chance to sit in on a meeting of some of the sharpest sports bettors/handicappers in the world. I’m not afraid to admit when someone is a better bettor than me, so I’ll admit that these guys knew more than I did when it comes to actually betting on sports. However, there is a difference between betting and handicapping, and I felt like I wasn’t too far behind these guys when it comes to handicapping skill. Anyway, one of the things that was discussed and brought up several times was the idea of the square sharp. I’m going to discuss this theory and maybe it might help some people to improve their handicapping by making an accurate self-assessment of their capping ability. In order to not plagiarize, I will give my definition of what a square and sharp bettor is. In my opinion, a square bettor is the average guy who puts down $20 on five team teasers that consist mainly of large favorites. He also mainly bets favorites either with the spread or moneyline, while also only betting totals to go over. A sharp bettor meanwhile will research their selections immensely and have concrete reasons for their plays. Some of them make only a few bets, while others might make close to a hundred bets or more per week. These guys only bet parlays when the side and total are related in a game, and they only do teasers when the lines are the most accurate and are getting the best value for their teaser, such as with NFL sides. However, with explosion of the internet and sports information sites, the average bettor is becoming “sharper”. This trend has led to a huge group of what why I think are square sharps. First of all I think at least 90% of the so-called pro handicappers are what I call square sharps. I might have just made some more enemies with that statement, but it’s the truth and they know it. I feel that I am a full fledged square sharp when it comes to baseball handicapping, maybe even worse. I am still somewhat of a square sharp when it comes to basketball but am getting better. However, I feel that I am an actual sharp when it comes to pro and college football betting/handicapping. My results in various sports from last season seem to prove my thinking as well. So what exactly is a square sharp? The average “wise guy” or supposedly “sharp handicapper” will always look to back home underdogs, teams with revenge angles, and letdown situations. These guys are also the pro handicappers who claim they have a 25-4 ATS play, or a play backed by an 80% long-term winning rate, etc. However, the lines are set to beat the wise guys and sharp bettors now, instead of the average $20, 5 team parlay bettor. The sportsbooks know that the average bettor will find a way to lose the money in their accounts, so they don’t even bother with them. Oddsmakers already account for all of the old trends that supposedly sharp handicappers think about; therefore the value is diminished using them. There are three differences between a square sharp and an actual sharp handicapper. The first difference is the overall understanding of how much each factor/player truly affects the point spread and totals. The second difference is the amount of work put into researching games, and the third difference is the depth of knowledge of each team. I’ll briefly discuss what I mean by all three of the above theories. First let’s take the Washington Redskins as an example. The truly sharp bettor knows that a horrible injury for that team would be to lose their starting left tackle Chris Samuels. He is an absolute key to that team, and it showed with the Redskins last year what happens to a team when their offensive line gets banged up and doesn’t have depth. Second, the true sharp handicapper will not only look at box scores, stats, and scores from previous games. They will look at drive charts, watch replays of games in-depth, sacks, turnovers, injuries, quotes/injuries from practices, etc. Essentially they are trying to figure out what the true “power rating” of each team and compare it to the oddsmakers power rating, or what people refer to as a spread. Finally, all of the extra studying and researching allows truly sharp bettors to have a better overall understanding of each team. One example of this idea would be Georgia Tech from last year. Sharp handicappers know that the key to stopping their option offense is a quick and athletic defensive line, which is what North Carolina had last year. Consequently, they were able to shut down the Yellow Jackets. Essentially truly sharp handicappers conduct more research; know what to look for, and have a much more accurate assessment of each team and how certain variables will affect them. Making an honest self-assessment of where you are as a handicapper will help you to develop and improve over time. It is not bad to be a square sharp handicapper because it means you are close to becoming a true sharp. However, there must be an understanding of what areas you are weak in and what is causing your losses. Very few people can claim that they are actual sharp handicappers, so the process to get there is long but is worth it in the end. My best recommendation is to keep track of your results using a spreadsheet and really look at your selections to see where you were right and wrong in your thinking, win or lose. However, let me just say that there is a difference between handicapping and betting. This idea will be looked at in an article to be released at a later date.
 

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