Let’s look at team records when they allow 3 runs or less. As many of you know, I analyze a ton of data for all sports and I also have the benefit of an Artificial Intelligence System that learns from more than 15-years of box scores and applies that accumulated to knowledge to the current day’s card. Let’s take a look at team records where they allow 3 runs or less in a game. # YEAR TEAM RA G W L 1 2009 BOS 3 13 11 2 2 2009 FLO 3 15 11 4 3 2009 TBA 3 12 10 2 4 2009 SEA 3 14 9 5 5 2009 CIN 3 14 9 5 6 2009 SDN 3 11 9 2 7 2009 LAN 3 14 9 5 8 2009 PHI 3 10 8 2 9 2009 TOR 3 10 8 2 10 2009 DET 3 9 8 1 11 2009 NYA 3 10 8 2 12 2009 OAK 3 11 7 4 13 2009 MIN 3 10 7 3 14 2009 COL 3 10 7 3 15 2009 MIL 3 11 7 4 16 2009 ATL 3 16 7 9 17 2009 ANA 3 9 6 3 18 2009 CHA 3 9 6 3 19 2009 NYN 3 9 6 3 20 2009 HOU 3 7 5 2 21 2009 TEX 3 8 5 3 22 2009 SLN 3 7 5 2 23 2009 SFN 3 6 5 1 24 2009 CHN 3 11 5 6 25 2009 PIT 3 6 4 2 26 2009 KCA 3 6 3 3 27 2009 ARI 3 8 3 5 28 2009 WAS 3 6 3 3 29 2009 CLE 3 8 3 5 30 2009 BAL 3 5 1 4 The chart shows team records sorted by highest number of wins when allowing 3 runs or less. The chart below shows the data sorted by total number of games where 3 runs or less occurred. On the first chart, the surprise team is Florida. They are in third spot in the NL East just 3 GB of the slumping Phillies. Florida also ranks 2nd in MLB with the total number of games they allowed 3 or less runs. This clearly reflects that they have solid defense, but average bullpen, and average starting pitching. They have played 71 games and in 15 of these games (21%) they have allowed 3 runs or less and won 11 of them. That is an opportunistic type of team. Their starters rank 23rd with a 4.70 ERA and bullpen 13th with a 4.03 ERA. In the bottom half of the totals list St, Louis would have to be the surprise team with just 7 games allowing 3 or less and are still competing for the NL Central lead. Pujols is a dominant reason why they are still in contention. Obviously, the more times a team allows 3 runs or less in a game the better their chances at defeating the poor offensive teams in the league. The bottom 5 in runs scored are SD, Seattle, SF, Chicago Cubs, and Houston. So, when a team in the top-5 of the totals chart plays an inferior offensive team you may have a solid investment and this is reinforced by the AiS as well. So, for example, the Braves have a league leading 16 games so when they play against the bottom 5 teams in offense you have a qualifying play and even more so when on the road. You then can analyze the starters and bullpen availabilities to determine the worth of the play. I would also add strength to the play if the qualifying team is winning 80% percent of these plays. This list appears in chart 3 below. So, the teams to trust would be Boston, Detroit, TB, SF, SD, Philadelphia, Toronto, and the Yankees. # YEAR TEAM RA G W L Total 16 2009 ATL 3 16 7 9 16 2 2009 FLO 3 15 11 4 15 4 2009 SEA 3 14 9 5 14 5 2009 CIN 3 14 9 5 14 7 2009 LAN 3 14 9 5 14 1 2009 BOS 3 13 11 2 13 3 2009 TBA 3 12 10 2 12 6 2009 SDN 3 11 9 2 11 12 2009 OAK 3 11 7 4 11 15 2009 MIL 3 11 7 4 11 24 2009 CHN 3 11 5 6 11 8 2009 PHI 3 10 8 2 10 9 2009 TOR 3 10 8 2 10 11 2009 NYA 3 10 8 2 10 13 2009 MIN 3 10 7 3 10 14 2009 COL 3 10 7 3 10 10 2009 DET 3 9 8 1 9 17 2009 ANA 3 9 6 3 9 18 2009 CHA 3 9 6 3 9 19 2009 NYN 3 9 6 3 9 21 2009 TEX 3 8 5 3 8 27 2009 ARI 3 8 3 5 8 29 2009 CLE 3 8 3 5 8 20 2009 HOU 3 7 5 2 7 22 2009 SLN 3 7 5 2 7 23 2009 SFN 3 6 5 1 6 25 2009 PIT 3 6 4 2 6 26 2009 KCA 3 6 3 3 6 28 2009 WAS 3 6 3 3 6 30 2009 BAL 3 5 1 4 5 # YEAR TEAM RA G W L Percentage 10 2009 DET 3 9 8 1 0.89 1 2009 BOS 3 13 11 2 0.85 3 2009 TBA 3 12 10 2 0.83 23 2009 SFN 3 6 5 1 0.83 6 2009 SDN 3 11 9 2 0.82 8 2009 PHI 3 10 8 2 0.80 9 2009 TOR 3 10 8 2 0.80 11 2009 NYA 3 10 8 2 0.80 2 2009 FLO 3 15 11 4 0.73 20 2009 HOU 3 7 5 2 0.71 22 2009 SLN 3 7 5 2 0.71 13 2009 MIN 3 10 7 3 0.70 14 2009 COL 3 10 7 3 0.70 17 2009 ANA 3 9 6 3 0.67 18 2009 CHA 3 9 6 3 0.67 19 2009 NYN 3 9 6 3 0.67 25 2009 PIT 3 6 4 2 0.67 4 2009 SEA 3 14 9 5 0.64 5 2009 CIN 3 14 9 5 0.64 7 2009 LAN 3 14 9 5 0.64 12 2009 OAK 3 11 7 4 0.64 15 2009 MIL 3 11 7 4 0.64 21 2009 TEX 3 8 5 3 0.63 26 2009 KCA 3 6 3 3 0.50 28 2009 WAS 3 6 3 3 0.50 24 2009 CHN 3 11 5 6 0.45 16 2009 ATL 3 16 7 9 0.44 27 2009 ARI 3 8 3 5 0.38 29 2009 CLE 3 8 3 5 0.38 30 2009 BAL 3 5 1 4 0.20
 

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