NFL SEASON TEAM WIN TOTALS Evan Altemus (Speculating Sports) This article is going to discuss the best NFL season team win total wagers available. For the reader’s reference, I am using the win totals posted at Oddsmaker.com. The first thing I looked at was last season’s record and then compared the strength of schedule to this year’s strength of schedule. Look at their schedule of last season. They feasted on Kansas City, Detroit, Oakland, St. Louis, and teams with down years such as Philadelphia and Carolina. Overall the NFC East and AFC South are the best in football with huge advantages over their opponents out of conference this season. The second piece of information I looked at was off season acquisitions and free agent losses/retirements. Continuity is one of the last things examined, but it is the most important for two reasons. Was the group of players coming back this season productive or the reason for a poor season? Also, is there expected improvement or decline of those players/coaches coming back? GREEN BAY PACKERS (UNDER 8.5) – Green Bay played one of the easiest schedules last year, parlaying it into a 13-3 record and a playoff berth. However, the loss of Brett Favre really isn’t a big deal, as the Packers run a West Coast offense with short yardage passes. Aaron Rogers is a capable quarterback in the system, but he does not have the arm strength to stretch the field. He has also played very well in the preseason, so this selection has very little to do with the loss of Brett Favre. This selection has EVERYTHING to do with their strength of schedule this season. They have one of the toughest schedules in the league this season. They have to face Dallas, at Tampa Bay, at Seattle, Indianapolis, at Tennessee, at New Orleans, Houston, at Jacksonville, as well as their divisional opponents. They have a real capability of going 6-10, 7-9, or 8-8. Another problem is that this team is young, and if the season starts going poorly, then they lack the veteran presence to keep the team from tanking. Their road schedule is very brutal, as well as their non-conference schedule. Look for this team to struggle throughout the season. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (OVER 8.5) – Donovan McNabb returns this season, another season removed from the reconstructive knee surgery of 2006. That surgery takes over a year to fully return from, which makes sense why McNabb had a rough first half of the 2007 season. However, he began to look very good at the end of last season, and he looked outstanding in the preseason, torching every 1st team defense he faced. Brian Westbrook also comes back healthy and ready to go. Westbrook and McNabb are the cornerstones of the Eagles offense, including a strong offensive line. Philadelphia looks to be very strong on defense, especially with acquisition of Assante Samuel from New England. Samuel and Lito Shepard are going to be the shut down corners that Jim Johnson’s blitz happy defense desperately need. Look for the Eagles to be a some what of a surprise team, as they will get easy non-conference wins against the AFC North and some weaker NFC divisional opponents. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (OVER 10.5) – San Diego is my selection as winner of the AFC this season. They have strengths and experience at almost every position. Philip Rivers has another year of experience, as well as returning all of the talent around him. Chris Chambers was an excellent addition to the receiving group last season, and Vincent Jackson and Darren Sproles are playmakers on offense. They have a very easy road schedule this season consisting of Denver, Oakland, Miami, Buffalo, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. I expect them to end with a 5-3 record on the road, with losses possibly coming to Pittsburgh, Denver, and Kansas City in December. The Chargers have been dominant at home over the past few seasons both outright and against the spread. Look for them to finish the season with 12 wins. CLEVELAND BROWNS (UNDER 8) – Cleveland’s success last season was mainly because of a very easy schedule. Their schedule is brutal this season, as they have to face the AFC South and the NFC East. They simply don’t have the physical presence to the offensive or defensive lines to play with these teams. Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Dallas, and New York are all much more physical than the Browns. I look for them to be 1-6 against those teams and finish with a .500 record against divisional opponents. Cleveland will be one of the bottom tier teams in the AFC by the end of the season, and I expect Derek Anderson to struggle behind a horrible offensive line. TENNESSEE TITANS (UNDER 8) – Vince Young has looked awful in the preseason, as the Titans continue to try and make him into a traditional quarterback. The Titans return one of the better defenses in the league, but their offense is so bad that it won’t matter. They are in the first or second toughest division in football. The AFC South is stacked with Houston, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. They simply don’t have the offensive talent to keep up with those teams. Minnesota, Green Bay, and Detroit on the road will all pose problems for the Titans. Look for Tennessee to finish 6-10. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (UNDER 7.5) – Washington looks to have a long season. They are implementing a new offense with a new offensive coordinator, as well as a new defensive coordinator. This season will also be Jim Zorn’s first as a head coach. First year coaches never have much success, and his season will be no different. The Redskins have a lot of problems on their defensive line and line backing group. The strength of this team is the secondary, but they are not even in the top three of the NFL. Washington’s offensive line is another year older and wasn’t particularly dominating last year. Jason Campbell is going to struggle, especially in the first half of the season, learning a new West Coast offense. I expect the Redskins to really struggle this season and finish with a 6-10 record. ST. LOUIS RAMS (UNDER 6.5) – St. Louis is going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL once again this year. The offensive and defensive lines are awful and the worst in the league. I don’t expect St. Louis to stop anyone on defense this year. The Rams head coach Scott Linehan replaced all of his assistants coming into this year, as he will be the next person to go if they struggle again. Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson are capable of having good seasons, but they don’t have any kind of offensive line to help them out. Look for this to be a very long season for the Rams and for Scott Linehan to be fired at the end of the year. DETROIT LIONS (OVER 6.5) – Detroit is a under the radar team coming into this season. Everyone forgets that they had an outstanding start for the first half of last season before tanking at the end. They have a very good quarterback in Jon Kitna, as well as the first or second best wide receiving group in the NFL with Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. This team finished 7-9 last season, and I expect another 7-9 or 8-8 finish. They get home games with Green Bay, Chicago, Washington, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Minnesota and New Orleans. I expect them to come have a 5-3 home record, which means they only need two road wins to reach 7 wins. They have winnable road games at Chicago, Carolina, San Francisco, and Atlanta. The Lions have added Rudi Johnson to complement their draft pick of Kevin Smith in the backfield. However, the Lions have ditched Mike Martz and his pass happy offense. As long as the Lions don’t try to run too much, they should put up very good offensive numbers with the passing game. The defense will be a weak point still but slightly better than last year. Overall I look for this team to have a decent season. HOUSTON TEXANS (OVER 7.5) – Houston is a very under-rated team heading into this year. They return starting quarterback Matt Schaub, as well as all the other pieces of an offensive unit that was very productive last year. The offensive line has been a weak point of recent years, but they have shown improvement in the past three seasons. They have playmakers on offense with Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, and Owen Daniels. They have an improving defensive line as well, anchored by Mario Williams. Houston finished with an 8-8 record last year, and they are going to be much better this season! Look for them to make the playoffs and be a surprise team. DALLAS COWBOYS (OVER 10.5) – This selection is obvious. Dallas returns all of the pieces of last season where they had a 13-3 record. The Cowboys also added playmakers Felix Jones and Adam “Pac Man” Jones, as well as kept the same offensive and defensive system. They play an easier schedule this season however, facing off against the awful AFC North and NFC West. They get non-conference games Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, Arizona, St. Louis, and San Francisco. Look for them to have either 12 or 13 wins this season. CINCINNATI BENGALS (UNDER 7) – Cincinnati still comes into this season with a lot of questions on defense. In previous seasons their offense was able to pick the slack of the defense, but this season that won’t be the case. They still don’t have a running game, especially with a below average offensive line. This team also has to face the AFC South and the NFC East, the two best divisions in football by far. Don’t be surprised if Carson Palmer doesn’t make it through the season due to injury. I don’t look for Cincinnati to win hardly any of their road games. They have to face the New York Giants, Dallas, New York Jets, Houston, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland on the road. The only road game they possibly have the chance to win is at Baltimore in the first game of the year. Almost every team is more physical on the offensive and defensive lines. Look for the Bengals to be one of the worst teams in the AFC. CHICAGO BEARS (UNDER 7.5) – Chicago will no longer be able to rely on their defense to create scoring opportunities and keep them in games. The defense is another year older and has lost more and more players to free agency through the years. This group looked absolutely horrible in the preseason, especially on the first team. Kyle Orton is not a playmaking quarterback by any means, in fact this season the Bears would be better playing Rex Grossman, as he can be either very good or very bad. However, Chicago needs some scoring this year to have a successful season. They simply cannot rely on Orton managing the game while their defense and special teams sets them up for scoring chances. Chicago finished 7-9 last season, but they are going to be much worse this year. They have a brutal seven game stretch to finish the season, playing three road games in a row at Green Bay, St. Louis, and Minnesota. Their last five games are against all playoff contenders, Minnesota, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Green Bay, and Houston. Look for the Bears to be out of the playoff hunt 2/3 of the way through the season and be crushed at the end of the year. I haven’t found any wagers available on future NFL playoff wagers, but these are the teams that I think will make the playoffs this year. NFC – Dallas, Minnesota, Seattle, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and New York Giants AFC – New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Houston, and Jacksonville
 

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