by Jim Feist

For years, pro football has been the sports leader when it comes to parity. Pete Rozelle was credited with, "On any given Sunday any team can beat another." The last few years it seems as though parity has disappeared from the NFL. The Packers this season are dominating, the 2008 Saints and Colts started a combined 16-0 SU/11-5 ATS and the 2007 Patriots had a remarkable 16-0 regular season.

A close look, however, shows that parity is alive and well. The Packers may have started 8-0, but they had a 5 point win over Minnesota, gave up 38 points in a close win over San Diego, along with 7 and 8 points wins over Carolina and New Orleans. In 2008 four wins by the Colts were by 4 points or less, while the 2007 Patriots were just as lucky as they were good.

What New England did in 2007 was unique, but let's not forget that they were fortunate to run the regular season table. They had wins over the Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Giants by 4, 3, 3 and 3 points. Counting the playoffs, the Patriots went 2-9 against the spread their final 11 games. They were double digit favorites in their final ten and went 2-8 ATS.

Last season, parity really roared its head. The Chiefs, Bucs, Raiders and Lions were much improved after being down for several seasons. The team that won the Super Bowl, Green Bay, was fortunate to even make the playoffs. This year, the Bills, 49ers and Bengals have defied most prognosticators with consistently strong play in many areas, plenty of wins and covers. Let's throw the Panthers in there, as well, as this offense went from being horrendous in 2010 to being electric under rookie QB Cam Newton and new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski.

Before the season started the top teams in consideration to make the Super Bowl were the Packers, Steelers, Patriots, Eagles, Colts, Falcons, Saints and Jets. How many have been dominant? How many have struggled? The Pats just had back to back losses to the Steelers and Giants because of a defense that has fallen off the map.

The Eagles were supposed to dominate the NFC, yet suffered through a four-game skid in addition to last week's Monday night loss at home to the Bears as 8-point chalk. The Falcons and Saints have had some defensive troubles, particularly in the secondary, while the Jets have already suffered through a three-game skid. Speaking of suffering, it's hard to believe the Colts were in the Top 10 before the season started to win the Super Bowl. The Peyton Manning injury was devastating, but almost as amazing is the demise of their defense. We might as well give Manning another MVP trophy, as the Colts have gone from Super Bowl contender to the worst team in the league.

Last season before the season started the top teams were the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Vikings and Cowboys. The Chargers and Vikings found a slew of ways to lose games and didn't even make the playoffs, while the Cowboys fired their coach in a train wreck season. Remember that Dallas and the Saints were the top two teams expected to win the NFC!

Injuries are the most obvious factor in leveling the playing field, turning powerhouse teams on paper into paper tigers. This year it's Manning. Two years ago defending AFC East champion Miami Dolphins lost starting QB Chad Pennington for the year. Last season, QBs Brett Favre and Tony Romo were hit with injuries. In 2008, reigning MVP Tom Brady was lost for the season in the opening minute of the first game, completely changing the AFC picture.

There's an old wagering adage about going against pro football teams who roll by 20 points in back-to-back games. That's not easy to do. If a pro team beats another by 20-plus points in consecutive weeks, it can be a good time to look at the other side, as the club off two blowout wins can be overvalued. In order to win by that kind of margin in consecutive games, a team has to play close to two perfect games back-to-back. In this day of parity, that takes a rare combination of talent, execution, health and luck.

It’s already happened this season. Remember how bad the Chiefs started this season? Kansas City opened the season with back-to-back colossal stinkers, losing 41-7 and 48-3. They were a +16 dog the next game, but a very different team showed up in a 20-17 loss at San Diego, an easy cover.

A year ago the Jaguars got routed by the Chargers (38-13) and Eagles (28-3), then as a +7 dog beat the Colts, 31-28. In 2009 after losing road games by 23 and 37 points, the Raiders stumbled home and not only covered, but beat the Eagles as 14-point dogs, 13-9. That same season the Browns lost back-to-back games by 20+ in Weeks 2 and 3, then got the cover against the Bengals as a +6 home dog. After losing by 35 and 28, the Rams got the cover in a 23-20 loss at Jacksonville as a +9 dog. It is hard to wipe out a pro team by 3 TDs three games in a row.

It might not seem like it at times, but this is parity at work, with salary caps and free agency making it difficult for teams to simply buy players to shore up weak areas, as is the case in baseball. In football, if you pay a lot to get or retain a key player, you may lose a star in another area. Overall, you rarely see pro teams keep up 20-point or more dominance for more than two games.
 

Jim Feist
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