NFL Opening Week betting preview and more

by Jeff Hochman


Value is the Key

Not just for underdogs! There are many games in the NFL when taking the favorite is the more Value play.

You will hear many people say I only take favorites in the NFL and you will also hear many people say I only take Underdogs. In the NFL everyone has their preference but if you only stick to one or the other you CAN'T and WON'T show a profit by seasons end.

You have to think one step ahead of the odds-makers. Being a former odds-maker myself has many advantages. If you need some help this football season than I am your man.

5-Year plan

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week #1 are just 33-48-7 ATS (41%). This of course implies that roadies on the blind are a 59% winning proposition during this time.

Jo public has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week #1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Who let the Dogs out?

Favorites are just 35-49-11 ATS in Week #1 the past five NFL seasons. This means that underdogs bark at a 59% clip. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and -6 1/2 are only 10-18 ATS (35%) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 25-39-3 ATS (39%) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 8-17 ATS (32%) in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Playoff teams from prior year

It might surprise you (it did to me) to learn that playoff teams from the prior year vs. non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 17-27-3 (39%) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 9-15-1 ATS (37%) during this time.

The oddsmakers will intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 10-16 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
 

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