Current Odds

A few sportsbooks opened the line at Pick’em last week, but the line quickly rose to make the Patriots a -1 point favorite by the time most other sportsbooks posted a number. New England has a 52% chance of winning the game straight-up as they are a slight -115 favorite on the moneyline. This line might rise higher on Monday evening as 62% of the Covers.com consensus is backing the Patriots.

The Over/Under line opened around 46 total points last week and briefly dropped down to 45 points in some locations before rising back up to the current line of 47½. The Covers.com consensus has 57% favoring the Over, however the line might drop lower on Monday night due to the weather conditions.

The weather forecast is calling for 30% chance of rain during the afternoon and early evening, but only a 20% chance of showers at kickoff. Temperatures will be around 75 degrees with a light wind around 15 mph.

Dolphins hurtin’

Miami will be without defensive end Jared Odrick and guard John Jerry as both players were ruled out of Monday night’s game. Linebacker Channing Crowder is listed as doubtful. He was limited in practice yesterday and has yet to play this season because of a groin injury.

Offensive tackle Jake Long (knee) and reserve cornerback Nolan Carroll (hand) are probable. Both participated in practice this past week.

Running Wounded

The Patriots will be without running back Fred Taylor, a reality they prepared for all last week. Taylor, who has been battling a toe injury for two weeks, missed his fourth consecutive practice and the team officially ruled him out shortly afterward.

This means Miami will see plenty of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who impressed last week with 98 yards rushing against the Bills after gaining just 41 total rushing yards combined against the Bengals and Jets. Green-Ellis is a third-year running back from the University of Mississippi and totaled only 114 rushing yards last season in 12 games.

The Patriots no longer have running back Laurence Maroney who is now playing for the Denver Broncos and led the Patriots with 759 rushing yards last season. So far this year, Green-Ellis leads the team with 139 rushing yards, followed by the injured Fred Taylor who has 98 yards.

Patriot Defense

New England’s defense has been abysmal so far this season. In three games, the Patriots have allowed a whopping 82 points to some suspect offensive teams like the Bengals, Jets, and Bills. Those three teams have scored a total of 174 points combined going into Sunday, which means almost half of their total points scored came against the Patriots.

Despite the criticism, the Patriots are still confident that their defense isn’t as weak as many believe and they expect to play much better on Monday night in Miami. “We’re staying focused and doing our job,” cornerback Jonathan Wilhite said. Jerod Mayo said everybody “has words to say,” but in the end, it all comes down to performance. “Everybody’s accountable for themselves,” said Mayo, a linebacker and a captain. “We’re just not playing like we need to play. Hopefully Monday, we come out and perform. Big stage.”

Head coach Bill Belichick doesn’t seem too worried about his stop unit either. “The defense has practiced well,” he said. “There are always game day challenges, but their work and preparation has been good. I don’t have any problems with that.”

The Sparano’s

Miami’s offense should be salivating at their opportunity to face the New England defense. The Dolphins have played much better at home under head coach Tony Sparano. Last year, the Dolphins scored 20 points or more in every home game while going Over the total in 7 of their 8 home games.

And that trend continued last week when the Dolphins scored 23 points against the Jets in their home loss last Sunday night. That game also went Over the total of 35½ after a whopping 54 points were scored. Miami has scored 22 and 28 points at home against New England the last two meetings in South Florida.

The Grass is Greener

The Dolphins share Sun Life Stadium with the Florida Marlins. But the Marlins season wraps up on Sunday, and the plans are for the grounds crew to cover up the dirt infield with fresh grass before Monday night’s game. If they can do it before the expected rain hits, it will be the first time since 1993 that the Dolphins won't have to play any home games on the infield dirt.

"If that happens, that would be super," Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said. But with inclement weather expected in Florida, Sparano practiced his team on the dirt and some mud this week in case the bad weather hits and the game is played in a slop of mud. The Dolphins played a preseason game in that exact situation against the Buccaneers, a game that had just a total of 17 points scored.

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